Atlanta surprised the Giants in the series opener, posting a 5-3 win while recording just their fifth home win of the season. Three of those have come in the past four games so maybe the Braves aren’t ready to leave Turner Field just yet.
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ODDS ANALYSIS
The Giants could be in line for a downturn after spending most of May winning baseball games. San Francisco entered its series with Atlanta having won 15 of 17 games to open a comfortable lead in the NL West. Over that time the Giants were up 13.73 units on the moneyline, putting them in black 9.80 units for the year.
The Braves, meanwhile, continue to flounder as their franchise overhaul is in full swing. They doubled their home win total by taking two of three from Miami over the weekend to improve to 4-21 in home games. It looks like the Braves are trying to distance themselves as much as possible as they play their last season at Turner Field.
PROBABLE PITCHERS
Madison Bumgarner (6-2, 2.12 ERA) was let down by his bullpen Saturday, watching a three-run lead vanish immediately after he was pulled from the game. He stymied the Rockies for six innings allowing just five hits and one run before leaving after 103 pitches. Though he didn’t get the win, Bumgarner tossed his eighth consecutive quality start.
You couldn’t blame MadBum if he felt reluctant to change the calendar. He finished 4-0 with a 1.05 ERA in six May starts. He is 5-3 with a 2.92 ERA in 10 career starts against the Braves and has a realistic opportunity to improve on his already stellar numbers.
Aaron Blair (0-3, 6.67 ERA) made his return to the majors after being demoted earlier and limited the Marlins to two runs on five hits Saturday while taking a no-decision. He displayed better fastball command and the outing ranked among his best with the big club this year – not a terribly difficult task considering he carried a 7.59 ERA into the start.
Braves manager Brian Snitker indicated Blair was good enough to earn another start after the team won for the first time with him on the hill. Blair will need to improve throwing to left-handed hitters, who slashed .340/.383/.448 against the heralded prospect.
LIVE BETTING
Baseball is a strange game and things have a way of evening out over the course of 162 games. But when one of the games top hurlers confronts one of the weaker offenses, we’re not likely to see an abundance of runs scored. Bumgarner is one of the best in the business and his numbers back it up. He hasn’t allowed more than one run in any of his past four starts and owns a 0.92 ERA in that span. As a team the Braves hit just .232 and score the fewest runs per game in the majors.
That being said, if the Braves can get to the Giants bullpen their chances of denting the scoreboard increase. Bumgarner left his last start with a 4-1 lead after silencing the powerful Rockies for six innings. The pen quickly surrendered the lead denying MadBum a victory, though the G-Men did regroup for the win. The Giants’ usually reliable pen has been anything but this year with the group posting a 4.28 ERA with eight blown saves and 15 home runs allowed.
QUICK PICK
Bumgarner may have to go the distance to collect a win after what happened his last time out. And it may not be a problem for him to do that against the Braves. The Giants pen squandered a lead in Colorado slapping a ND on Bumgarner’s line after he held the high-powered Rockies in check for most of the evening. While the Giants haven’t been terrors on offense, they have more firepower in the box than Atlanta, and they’re not facing a hurler as capable as their own starter. Bumgarner stifles the Braves offense while the G-Men figure out Blair for enough runs to get the win.
MLB Odds: San Francisco 5, Atlanta 1
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