The San Francisco Giants and Chicago Cubs may be the two biggest disappointments in the National League. Sure, the Cubs are still very much in the thick of the NL Central, but this is much better than a .500 club. Likewise, the Giants are a better team than their dismal record suggests, but offense has been hard to come by. The team will hope their recent surge is sustainable as they head to the Windy City.
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ODDS ANALYSIS
Anthony Rizzo is hitting .221, Kyle Schwarber is batting .188, Addison Russell, Javier Baez, Willson Contreras and Ben Zobrist are all batting .235 or below. This will not last, but for now the Cubs offense is a bit of a mess other than Kris Bryant.
In the last two games, the Cubs’ offense has scored 16 total runs. That could be a nice turnaround.
The Giants’ offense had their potential turn around a few days ago, scoring eight in back-to-back games, but that turned out to be little more than a mirage with the league’s worst offense returning to form, scoring three runs in their last two games combined.
PROBABLE PITCHERS
Yes, the offense has struggled. Sure, Rizzo, Schwarber and many others should be hitting better than they are. All of that considered, the biggest difference between this iteration of the Cubs and the one we say last year is still a struggling pitching staff.
One of the pitchers that hasn’t been a problem so far will be on the mound for the Cubs on Monday: Kyle Hendricks.
Expected to be the fourth or fifth guy in the rotation last year, Hendricks was Greg Maddux like. He executed his pitches with pinpoint control and just enough movement. His stuff isn’t as good as the rest of the rotation, yet, they’re struggling and he’s not.
After what was a career year, Hendrick has seen his ERA jump more than a run, but a 3.35 ERA is still good. His FIP has also jumped a run, but just like last year, he’s beating that by a sizeable margin though his current ERA is right in line with his career FIP.
Both walks and home runs are up this year over last for Hendricks and both are well over his career averages in those categories as well, though those averages are highly impacted by his year last year.
The 27-year old right-hander did have a couple lackluster starts his first three times out, but since then, Hendricks has very much looked the part of the Cy Young contender from last year. He’s thrown five straight games giving up two runs or fewer, he’s allowed just two combined homers in those five games and has allowed just six runs and 23 hits in 29.2 innings. He has walked 11 which is the only place this narrative of the last month strays.
Hendricks can be counted on for a quality start. Meanwhile, the Giants will turn to Ty Blach who took the rotation spot for Madison Bumgarner. Ironically, he’s been the best starter since MadBum went down.
Blach is 1-2 with a 4.15 ERA and 1.183 WHIP over 34.2 innings. He’s getting outs and went seven innings in each of his last two starts, giving up a combined three runs.
The start before that, Blach went three innings, allowing 10 runs—eight earned. Clunkers like that are possible. Blach isn’t getting strikeouts. He’s struck out 11 all year. If things begin to roll in the wrong direction, Blach doesn’t has shown he can get the big K to shut down the opposition.
LIVE BETTING
Mark Melancon is back from the DL so that helps push everyone back into more familiar spots in the bullpen.
The Giants’ pen has been average overall based on ERA, but they’re still allowing nearly a run more per nine innings in comparison to the Cubbies.
The North Siders have a very good pen. It’s just a matter of getting to them consistently with the lead and that falls on the shoulders of the both the inconsistent starters and the lineup all in a collective funk for pretty much the entirety of the season to date.
Wade Davis has now gone 17.1 innings and has still yet to give up an earned run, allowing just one unearned run and six hits. His WHIP is 0.635 and he’s converted nine saves.
Carl Edwards Jr. has allowed just two runs in his 17.1 innings and has a WHIP just a little higher than Davis due to a couple more walks, but has been just as unhittable. If the Cubs can get to the eighth with the lead, the game is over.
QUICK PICK
Chicago isn’t the same team from last year. Based on the names on the paper including a full season of Schwarber and Contreras, this team should technically be better. The bullpen is better than the Cubs had to start the season a year ago.
Still, this offense has gone quiet outside of Bryant and the pitching hasn’t lived up to expectations. Given all the issues, this team has still managed to be over .500 heading into the Giants’ series and have one of their more consistent arms—who is throwing the ball well right now—on the hill for the series finale on Sunday. Meanwhile, although Blach has had some success comparative to his rotation mates, he doesn’t match up with Hendricks in terms of strike outs or overall production.
The Cubs’ offense has started to turn things around in the last couple games and they’re too good to struggle all season. This team will still end up as one of the better clubs when all is said and done this year and they still stack up favorably with the Giants in Sunday’s matchup. They have the edge on the mound from the first inning through the end of the game and at least have a deeper lineup even if the team is generally not producing. They’ve outscored San Fran on the year.
MLB Odds: Cubs 6, Giants 3
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