The Chicago Cubs haven’t run away with the NL Central—or the entire National League for that matter—as they were expected to coming into the season, but they may not be the biggest disappointment of the year as the San Francisco Giants remain seven games under-.500. Despite the struggles of both squads, each look much better as they get set to square off in the second game of a four-game series on Tuesday.
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ODDS ANALYSIS
A three-game sweep of the Reds and a two-game series split against the Brewers shouldn’t be big news, but for this Cubs’ team, it is.
Chicago hasn’t lived up to the hype and found themselves a game under-.500 a week ago, but their series against two teams surprisingly ahead of them in the NL Central standings in mid-May may be the sign that things are finally starting to turn for this team.
The offense is starting to come together. They beat the Brew Crew 13-6 on Sunday and saw big hits from several players including Kris Bryant, Anthony Rizzo, Addison Russell, Kyle Schwarber, Willson Contreras, and Ben Zobrist.
Most of those names listed above have had bad starts to this season so each of them swinging the bat well is encouraging. This team is too good to flounder around .500 all season long, but it was question of when they’d break out of their funk. It’s quite possible that they just did.
Zobrist atop the order and Schwarber out of the one spot is huge. In addition, Ian Happ’s hot bat since his promotion has helped spark this lineup desperate for such a spark. It’s a similar effect to what Contreras has last year and Schwarber has the year before.
PROBABLE PITCHERS
And the aces converge on Tuesday as Johnny Cueto again looks for his fifth win of the season against Jon Lester who completely dominates at Wrigley Field.
Lester hardly ever gives up more than three runs per start at home, giving Cueto very little margin for error.
The rotation has been a huge culprit in the Cubs’ slow start, but while most of the starters are at least partially to blame, it’s hard to point a figure at Lester. The veteran southpaw is 2-2 with a 3.57 ERA in his 52 innings of work.
His ERA is higher than last year by more than a run, but it’s right in line with his career norms. His WHIP this year is higher than normal due to a few extra walks, but Lester walked just one batter in his last start. He did, however, walk four in just 5.1 innings in the previous start.
Early command of the strike zone will be the thing to watch for Lester, but home cooking always seems to do him some good.
The home mound is usually preferable for Cueto, too, who is a pitcher that thrives on comfortability. He’s faltered in a couple big game appearances in his career when he was rattled.
The fans in Wrigley haven’t been an issue for Cueto. He’s 9-8 with a 3.24 ERA against the Cubs in his career and has a 3.07 ERA in Wrigley. He’s actually better against Chicago in Chicago than his home ballpark.
Those historic stats are encouraging, but his numbers on the year are not. He’s 4-3, but he’s pitched to a 4.50 ERA for a team that’s struggled scoring runs. He had a 5.10 ERA in April and has been better in May, but did allowed five runs in six innings against the Dodgers in his last start.
LIVE BETTING
In the big picture, the Giants are looking up. They’ve won seven of their last nine games, but they go into the Cubs series on a Sunday afternoon loss to the Cardinals, 8-3.
Most of those runs allowed came on Matt Cain with the bullpen allowing just one run in 2.2 innings.
With Mark Melancon back, the Giants’ pen lines up much better and that very pen has helped the Giants go on their latest run.
The Cubs’ bullpen has been strong all year and has a cumulative 3.13 ERA with a couple very strong options in the latter innings.
With each pen going well right now and with two aces lined up for the start, this game could—and should—be decided by the little things.
If those little things are at the plate, the Cubs’ bats are starting to click which is dangerous for the Giants, but if you’re looking for an error to provide an advantage, Chicago has committed more of those than any other NL team.
QUICK PICK
The Cubs have been a terrible team to bet on all season long. They’ve lost bettors tons of money and, in the process, they’ve also started driving down their moneylines to a much more respectable level.
Look for the Cubs to get the win in this game at home. Chicago’s bats look to be finally waking up. We’ve been waiting and waiting, knowing that these players are all too good to struggle this bad all season long, but with each passing day and week, the North Siders looked more and more mediocre.
Now, this team is one positioned to take off and get back closer to where everyone thought they’d be. Sure, the Giants are playing better baseball, but the Cubs have more options at the plate and on the mound.
MLB Odds: Cubs 7, Giants 4
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