This is the type of matchup that makes September baseball so interesting as these two historic rivals battle in the final game of a three game set with playoff implications for both teams. This will be their last head-to-head meeting of the year at Dodgers Stadium, at least in the regular season.
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ODDS ANALYSIS
The Giants have the lead in the season series against the Dodgers, but it’s Los Angeles that’s won two of the last three series head-to-head. Los Angeles is also playing much better baseball right now.
San Francisco started to show signs of pulling out of its two month slump in the Cardinals series with Buster Posey finally showing some power and the team capturing the first two games of the series.
They showed signs of life back in the Diamondback series a week prior, however, then proceeded to get swept at home against the Padres.
The offense for the Giants is starting to look better, but the bullpen is still an issue as is the starting pitching not named Madison Bumgarner or Johnny Cueto.
While the Giants have struggled, the Dodgers took advantage, even with Clayton Kershaw on the shelf. Los Angeles jumped them in the standings and has had a very strong September, winning 10 of 15 games with a 23 run differential heading into Sunday.
PROBABLE PITCHERS
Kenta Maeda gets the start for Los Angeles in the series finale as the Dodgers show what’s expected to be their playoff rotation for this big series against San Fran. Clayton Kershaw and Rich Hill slide in in the first two games of the series, leaving the rookie out of the Japanese league as the team’s No. 3.
Maeda’s been the Dodgers’ most consistent hurler. Of course, Kershaw has been far superior when he’s been on the field, but with just 19 starts after getting the nod in the series opener on Monday, he’s well behind Maeda who will be getting his 30th start on Wednesday.
The 28-year old right-hander is 15-9 on the season with a 3.24 ERA and 1.098 WHIP spread over 164 innings of work.
In general, Maeda’s done a great job at keeping the ball in the zone and has avoided the long ball lately which was a struggled earlier in the year. So far he’s pitched very well in September. He’s had three starts with 17.1 innings. He’s allowed five runs, only four earned, in that time without giving up a home run and allowing only 14 total hits.
While those numbers are all positive, the one thing that’s plagued him all year continued to show up in his last three starts: his inability to go deep in games. Even when pitching his best, he’s averaging less than six innings a start. In his last outing, he went five innings, allowing one run, but still threw 94 pitches.
Maeda can be counted on for solid production, but the middle of the bullpen could be exposed as they’ll be leaned on to bridge the gap to Kenley Jansen.
On the other side, the Giants turn to Matt Moore who can have a similar issue. He lasted just five innings, throwing 93 pitches, on Friday against the Cardinals. In that game, he walked three batters.
Walks have been an issue for Moore. Since coming to the Giants at the trade deadline, he’s walked 5.1 per nine innings. Despite that, he’s done well to keep his ERA down to 4.01, posting a 4-4 record in his nine starts.
The Dodgers will need to practice their patience in this game and take advantage of Moore’s wild tendencies. That said, while Moore often doesn’t know where the ball will be going, neither do the batters. He’s allowing only 7.5 hits per nine innings and has given up only four home runs in 51.2 innings of work.
The 27-year old southpaw has pitched pretty well in his last two starts and been very strong in four of his last five outings.
LIVE BETTING
The Giants’ offense has gone ice cold since the start of the second half of the season, but there are recent signs of life.
Buster Posey has been central to this team’s offense over the last handful of seasons, but his power had nearly disappeared. He hit a home run on Friday night for the first time since the middle of July. That’s nice to see, but he followed that up with a 0-for-4 on Saturday.
Along with Posey, the Giants needs Brandon Belt, Brandon Crawford and Hunter Pence to start hitting more consistently. Pence has held up that of late. He’s certainly a spark plug.
Over the course of September, the Giants have started to turn the offense around. They’ve produced two more runs than the Dodgers in one less game.
While the total run production in September is right in line with San Francisco, Los Angeles’ has been producing better offense for longer. That said, Moore on the mound could present a special challenge. The team is very left-handed centric. Yasiel Puig is key for this game. He was banished to Triple-A for a stretch, but has looked like a more dedicated player since his return.
QUICK PICK
The matchup against the lefty Moore is troublesome for this Dodgers’ order, but Moore hasn’t shown the ability to go deep in the game and the Giants’ bullpen has been a disaster.
Look for the Dodgers to exploit the Giants’ weakness in the pen and take the lead in the middle innings. Los Angeles doesn’t have the best answers in the middle innings either, but they’ve at least got Kenley Jansen in the back to help everyone else fall into place.
MLB Odds: Dodgers 5, Giants 4
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