The San Francisco Giants kick off their season on the road in southern California, taking on their rivals, the Los Angeles Dodgers. One of the game’s best rivalries, this Giants and Dodgers series brings a ton of excitement for both teams, kicking off the 2018 regular season. While Madison Bumgarner is out, the Giants will still hope to take a couple games in this series, putting a dismal 2017 campaign in the rearview mirror. For the Dodgers, it’s the start of what they hope to be a march back to the Fall Classic.
First pitch for Game 1 of the four-game season opening series between the Giants and Dodgers is scheduled for Thursday, March 29, 2018, at 7:08 p.m. ET at Dodger Stadium. The matchup will be shown on ESPN. The rest of the games in the series will take place at 10:10, 9:10 and 8:37 p.m. ET respectively with the middle two games on local television and the Sunday night game also on ESPN.
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Odds Analysis
The Dodgers won 40 more games than the Giants in 2017. They were 104-58 with the best record in baseball. The Giants were 64-98, tied for the worst.
Given those data points, this series should be landslide for the Dodgers, but the Giants made some key acquisitions over the offseason whereas the Dodgers remained relatively stagnant.
Offensively, the Dodgers were sixth in the NL in runs scored and fourth in homers in 2017, the Giants scored the second fewest runs and hit just 128 homers, by far the fewest in the NL.
To combat the offensive woes, San Francisco added Evan Longoria and Andrew McCutchen to lengthen out their lineup. That should help bridge some of the difference as should the injury to Justin Turner that’ll cause him to miss much of the first half of the season—including this opening series.
Even with these changes, however, the Dodgers maintain their advantage at the plate. Matt Kemp has looked good this spring in his second round of duty with L.A. He along with Joc Pederson, Yasiel Puig, Chris Taylor, Kike Hernandez and others form a deep and versatile outfield while Corey Seager and Cody Bellinger have short and first nailed down in the infield. Without Turner, Logan Forsythe slides to third and the ageless wonder, Chase Utley, gets more at-bats at second.
On the other side, the Giants finally have some support for Buster Posey. An excellent bat, Posey’s not a big power hitter. Still, he and Brandon Belt made up the crux of the team’s offense last year—at least until Belt went down with an injury.
With Longo and Cutch added to the mix, we should see improvements from Brandon Crawford, Joe Panik and even Hunter Pence who have less pressure now. The Giants lineup should be much improved.
Probable Pitchers
With Bumgarner out, we are missing out on a battle of aces on Thursday. Instead, we will see Clayton Kershaw matchup with Ty Blach.
Kershaw, of course, is one of the games’ best hurlers. Injuries have limited his overall production the last couple years, but he still makes his eighth consecutive opening day start, bringing a 2.36 ERA to the table.
The ace southpaw was 18-4 last year with a 2.31 ERA, leading the NL in both wins and ERA. In his career against the Giants, Kershaw is 22-9 with a 1.60 ERA in 40 starts.
On the other side, Blach got a chance to make 24 starts last year due largely to another injury to Bumgarner. Now, he’ll get the Opening Day start for the same reason.
The 27-year old southpaw was 8-12 with a 4.78 ERA and 1.356 WHIP in 163.2 innings last year. That’s hardly an impressive season, but given injuries to Bumgarner and Jeff Samardzija, Bruce Bochy’s options for starters were limited.
As strong spring training and respectable 3.20 ERA in five games against the Dodgers last year likely played into Bochy’s decision. Bochy also wanted to keep the rest of his staff in rotation given Bumgarner’s injury came in his last Spring Training start.
As a result, after Blach, the Giants will send Johnny Cueto in Game 2 with Chris Stratton and Derek Holland the likely starters in the final two games.
For the Dodgers’ their rotation is in a much more stable position. Dave Roberts will turn to Alex Wood in Game 2 after a breakout season last year with Kenta Maeda and Rich Hill lined up for Games 3 and 4 respectively.
Cueto is hoping for a bounce back season after injuries limited him to 25 starts and he struggled a bit going 8-8 with a 4.52 ERA along with an inflated 1.446 WHIP. Those numbers don’t come close to living up to Cueto’s standards. The 10-year Major League veteran is a career 3.33 ERA pitcher with a .595 winning percentage. Last year, his walks ballooned to their highest rate since 2009 while his hits per nine innings were a career high.
Those numbers need to come down for Cueto to be successful, but his Spring Training numbers haven’t been overly optimistic, though he looked better in his last spring start.
As for Stratton, he appeared in 13 games last year, making 10 starts. He posted a 3.68 ERA and showed some promise though he still allowed too many walks to allow for sustainable success. He showed some improvement there this spring.
Holland, meanwhile, has a solid resume as a back-end starter, but was dismal last year, going 7-14 with a 6.20 ERA after a strong start. He’s trying to regain his career and may be the chief beneficiary of the Giants’ rotational injuries. Holland will have a short leash, but has been okay this spring. Still, his last good season came in 2013.
While there’s a great deal of concern about the Giants’ hurlers, the Dodgers’ starting staff comes with a lot fewer questions.
Wood was dynamic last year, particularly in the first half as he showed signs of fatigue down the stretch. Finishing with a 16-3 record and 2.72 ERA, his numbers trumped those put up by any Giants’ hurler in 2017.
He’s pitched well again this spring and was 2-0 in three starts against the Giants last year and 9-2 at home. In the first half, he was 10-0 with a 1.67 ERA.
Wood versus Cueto may be the most balanced matchup of the series. Kershaw and Blach aren’t even in the same class and the Stratton and Holland duo don’t match up against Maeda and Hill.
Maeda was relegated to the pen in the 2017 postseason, but he pitched well in that role. He’s a solid mid-rotation starter and a righty to break up the southpaws. He as 13-6 with a 4.22 ERA last year. As for Hill, he’s generally a five-inning pitcher who the Dodger generally limit to two times through a rotation. He’s unlikely to go deep in the game, but generally provides quality when on the mound as evident by his 3.32 ERA in 2017.
Live Betting
Pitching is where the Dodgers really separated themselves last year. They were a solid defensive squad and good offensive team, but the pitching ranked first in the NL with a 3.38 ERA.
The starting pitching edge over the Giants is clearly evident above, but the bullpen also has an edge.
San Francisco’s bullpen collapsed down the stretch in 2016. The team tried to improve it going into 2017 with the acquisition of Mark Melancon, but he only pitched 30 innings.
Remade again, the bullpen still has questions, including around the health of Melancon. Tony Watson and Manny Parra add some veteran presence.
The Dodgers will be trying to replace Brandon Morrow in the late innings. Of course, Morrow didn’t really grab that role until late when Pedro Baez faded down the stretch. Baez was the eighth inning man most of the year and will reprise that role in 2018. He was good early, but ran out of steam. That’s a concern late, but not for this series.
Scott Alexander has been added to this elite unit to help set up for Kenley Jansen, the game’s best closer. That’s probably the biggest difference in these two pens. When the Dodgers have a lead in the ninth, the game is over. The same is not the case for San Fran.
MLB Pick
Look for the Dodgers to take the series at home, winning at least three of the four games. They’ve got a relatively healthy starting rotation and while the loss of Justin Turner is significant, the depth on the roster is enough to overcome that injury.
Los Angeles is the reigning NL champions and took the NL West by a large margin while San Francisco had the league’s worst record. Yes, the Giants made some big moves in the offseason, but the injured rotation negates some of that.
In the end, the Giants are just a better team and while rivalry games—and series—are always a bit more difficult to pick, the Dodgers did still outshine the Giants 11-8 a season ago.
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