In a contest that looked like nobody wanted to win, the Mets ended up victorious and will host the Wild Card game despite a decimated rotation and key injuries around the field. On the other side, their competitor is a Giants’ team that has quite a playoff pedigree of late—at least in even years—but have backed into the postseason with a dismal second half.
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ODDS ANALYSIS
The Mets end the year with a 44-37 home record and will look to leverage that on Wednesday.
New York has played tight games with San Francisco. The two teams are 4-3 head-to-head with the Mets owning the slight advantage, outscoring the Giants 39-35 in the seven games.
San Francisco also doesn’t have the trends going for them. They’ve gone 30-42 in the second half and save for a couple wins to close out the season in October, they’ve not posted a winning record in a month since June.
Sure, their big wins at the end were encouraging, but they came against a Dodgers’ club that was already in the postseason. Their competition on Wednesday will be a far more motivated Mets team.
PROBABLE PITCHERS
The Mets’ pitching rotation has injuries galore, but they do still have one ace throwing the ball: Noah Syndergaard. They’ll turn to him to carry them to a division series on Wednesday.
Syndergaard has had an excellent sophomore year going 14-9 with a 2.60 ERA and 1.149 WHIP in 183.2 innings of work spread over 31 games.
The 23-year old right-hander can blow it by hitters with the best of them, striking out 10.7 batters per nine innings. He’s also done an excellent job keeping the ball in the park, allowing just 11 home runs all year long.
Last year, Syndergaard had extreme home/road split, but this year he’s been good regardless of where he pitches. He’s actually been a bit better on the road, but still have a 2.87 home ERA.
In his second to last start, Syndergaard struggled, allowing five runs in 3.2 innings against Atlanta, but he bounced back to allow one on six innings against Miami. Overall, he’s allowed more than two runs just that one time in his last eight games.
Against the competition, he’s fared well in limited action this year. In two starts spanning 13.2 innings, he’s allowed four runs on seven hits, striking out 12. He did, however, allow a home run and four walks in that time.
On the other side of the field, the Giants will turn to 2014 postseason hero Madison Bumgarner in what should be an epic pitching matchup.
Bumgarner went 15-9 on the year with a 2.74 ERA and 1.024 WHIP in 226.2 innings spread over 34 games.
It seems as though the left-hander has been around forever, but at just 27 years of age, he’s just now coming into what should be his prime years. The southpaw had a poor outing in his second to last start, allowing five runs in six innings to the Padres, but bounced back in his final regular season start, allowing just three over 7.1 innings against the Dodgers.
Over his career, Bumgarner has faced the Mets six times, going 5-0 with a 1.80 ERA in 40 innings of work.
Between the two pitchers, the numbers are neck and neck this year and both have solid postseason experience. Bumgarner should give the Giants a bit more length, but for quality, these starters and balanced.
LIVE BETTING
The Giants need as many innings from Bumgarner as they can get. They’re at a distinct disadvantage in the bullpen. The pen hasn’t provided much relief for San Francisco in the second half and that’s been a staple of the Giants’ recent postseason run.
Bruce Bochy is as good as anyone at getting the most out of his pitching staff and working a bullpen, but even he can do only so much.
While the Giants lack any real answer in the back end, the Mets boast a lights out closer in Jeurys Familia and a solid option in the eighth with Addison Reed. The middle of the pen is a question, but the back end at least gives New York an advantage.
As for the bats, New York may have the advantage there, too. The second half has been a struggle for the Giants’ offense, too. The team does have postseason experience and a lineup that did generate offense earlier in the year while the Mets are dealing with numerous injuries, but for now, Asdrubal Cabrera has come up with some timely hits lately and Yeonis Cespedes at least provides a big bat in the middle that can help bring the rest of the order together.
QUICK PICK
Both teams have their best option on the mound to start and this should be a low scoring affair, at least into the sixth or seventh inning.
In the end, the Giants are on the road and their long streak of sub-par play is concerning. Their history in the postseason makes it hard to bet against them, but what made this team successful in years past is missing.
Look for the Mets to take advantage of playing at home and of the Giants’ bullpen—even if Bumgarner goes eight. New York is the one that wins this with postseason magic behind Syngergaard and a superior back end of the bullpen.
Look for a couple big hits to be the difference in this game and while Buster Posey or Hunter Pence could provide those hits, it’s more likely to come from Cespedes, Cabrera or even Jose Reyes given the more recent history for these two clubs. The Mets’ biggest weakness is depth. That’ll show up in series play, but shouldn’t be too big of an issue in the one-and-done Wild Card game.
MLB Odds: Mets 3, Giants 2
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