Here in yet another even year, the Giants are rolling and are in great position for another deep playoff push. Since April 22 this team’s been rolling, going 50-26 while the Yankees have been barely staying afloat. The Giants will try and be the finally nail in the coffin this weekend as they return to the Big Apple.
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ODDS ANALYSIS
Coming out of the break with back-to-back losses to divisional-rival Boston was tough and looked like it could be the start to the end of the Yankees this season as they decide to buy, sell or hold.
Well, a win in the series finale on ESPN Sunday Night Baseball and a nice start to their series against division-leading Baltimore has New York back to .500 and, potentially, back in the hunt.
New York is still far from a strong bet given the rotation questions and aging lineup, but if they can get the lead late, the bullpen is shut down. Still, overall, the Yankees have a -$515 total moneyline.
The Giants, meanwhile, don’t have the dominance in the backend, but they’ve got a lineup that’s greater than the sum of the parts and a rotation that is one of the best in the sport. It’s no wonder they’ve been the most profitable bet in the NL to date with a cumulative moneyline of $1,174.
PROBABLE PITCHERS
The matchup for this game hasn’t been announced, but based on how each team set their rotation coming out of the break, we should see Ivan Nova against Jeff Samardzija.
Nova pitched six innings, allowing one run on four hits to a powerful Orioles’ lineup in his last start on Monday. That was just his first quality start since June 9 and his second since May 19.
Overall, Nova is 7-5 as a result of pretty strong run support with a 4.92 ERA and 1.337 WHIP. He does a good job avoiding free passes, but tends to be rather hittable, allowing 9.9 hits per nine innings and having allowed 16 homers in 86 innings.
In his career, Nova has had very little experience against the Giants’ collection of players, but as a whole, they’re only 6-for-36 against him without a homer.
While Nova’s numbers against San Francisco are encouraging, Samardzija’s numbers against several Yankees leaves something to be desired.
Carlos Beltran, Mark Teixeira and Jacoby Ellsbury all have a home run against him with Beltran hitting .313 in 16 at bats with three walks and Chase Headley posting a .579 OBP in 17 plate appearances.
It’s been a tale of two seasons for Samardzija. The veteran right-hander’s first two months were very strong. He went 7-3 with a 2.84 ERA. In June and July, however’ his ERA has shot up to 6.02.
In his first start after the All-Star break, Samardzija allowed four runs in five innings to the Padres. He didn’t get the loss, but San Francisco fell for the third time in his last four starts.
LIVE BETTING
It’s hard to get behind either starter. Samardzija has better stuff, but Nova at least pitched well his last time out.
If Nova and the Yankees can use the Orioles start as a springboard and post another strong outing, they’ve got the bullpen to close it out.
The big three at the end have been talked about over and over. Whether they’re all still in a Yankee’s uniform will be an important factor, though with more than a week between this game and the trade deadline, I’d look for them all to still be in pinstripes.
If, however, the Yankees have to go to the pen before the seventh, things could get a bit dicey for the team from the Bronx, even if the Yankees’ offense has been able to get to Samardzija.
Speaking of that Yankee offense, there’s still plenty of questions there. A-Rod hit a home run on Monday after taking an extra round of batting practice. He was able to pull the ball, but he’s still shown a rather slow bat all year.
The Giants offense lacks power, but is much more efficient, able to produce when needed as the good teams can.
QUICK PICK
Samardzija’s performance over the last month and a half have caused some alarm. It’s hard to ignore that long of a stretch of poor performances, but Nova himself hasn’t been good this year save for his last start.
The O’s offense is a good one and Nova was able to stop it, but it’s a very different offense than the one the Giants boast. San Francisco can manufacture runs while Baltimore is all about the long ball. There are more exploitable holes for the Orioles even if there’s more potential for a dynamic explosion, too.
Look for the Giants to be able to get to Nova to give Samardzija run support. Also, look for the Yankees’ offense to struggled. They’re just too old and too dysfunctional to count on.
MLB Odds: Giants 6, Yankees 3
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