The Yankees are back alive with a nice showing against Baltimore this week, but the weekend series against the best team in the sport comes to a close on Sunday with the Giants hoping they put any of the Yankees’ allusions of grandeur to rest.
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ODDS ANALYSIS
The Giants still have the best record in baseball as of Wednesday, but they’re not getting off to a good start in the second half, dropping four straight. They were swept in three games against the Padres in San Diego and then travelled across the country to take on the Red Sox, dropping the series opener on Tuesday.
In those four losses, San Francisco is averaging fewer than two runs per game. The offense is the key concern for the Giants who’ve seemed to get just enough all season long, but with injuries to Hunter Pence, Matt Duffy and Joe Panik are definitely not the most powerful lineup.
As for the Yankees, they’ve seemed to find a bit of life with the threat of being sellers on the horizon.
After dropping two in a row to Boston on Friday and Saturday, the team salvaged a big game on Sunday Night Baseball and followed that up with back-to-back wins over Baltimore, much of that on the heels of their pitching remarkably enough.
PROBABLE PITCHERS
The Yankees avoid Madison Bumgarner in this game, but get the Giants’ next best starter on Sunday afternoon: Johnny Cueto.
Cueto was given the nod to start the NL All-Star game. While that was partially by default with a number of injuries and pitches having pitched on Sunday, he was still a deserving pick. He’s 13-2 with a 2.64 ERA and 1.027 WHIP in 19 starts this season, spanning 136 1/3 innings.
Cueto has done a great job keeping the ball down in the zone and thus on the ground. He’s given up just eight homeruns and has walked fewer than two batters per nine innings. Given the elevated ground ball rate and the limited free passes, his FIP is right in line with his strong ERA.
One other important aspect of Cueto’s game is depth. The veteran right-hander is known for his quirky delivery and his swagger on the hill, but he’s also known as a workhorse. He leads the league in innings and has already delivered four complete games, including two shutouts. Those numbers are unheard of in today’s game.
With New York holding the clear edge in the bullpen with Dellin Betances, Andrew Miller and Aroldis Chapman—assuming they’re all still in pinstripes come Sunday, the fact Cueto can go deep in the game and bridge the gap to Santiago Casilla at the end of the game is huge.
There is one concern, however. The righty had his shortest start of the year in his first start of the second-half, going just five innings and allowing four runs on Sunday to the Padres.
New York has yet to announce who will pitch opposite of Cueto on Sunday. Nathan Eovaldi had lost his rotation spot before the break, but was given a chance to start again on Tuesday and pitched very well—at least through five innings.
In his first five innings, he held a powerful Orioles lineup scoreless. He faltered a bit in the sixth, but still left allowing just one runs on four hits and two walks in five and a third.
All in all, Eovaldi continues to baffle everyone. He’s got elite level stuff, but cannot seem to put it all together.
He had a nice year last year with a 14-3 mark, but his ERA was still 4.20 and his WHIP was 1.451 as he gave up a ton of hits.
He’s still allowing plenty of hits, though his WHIP is down to 1.365. An increase home run rate of 1.6 per nine, however, has led to an inflated ERA of 4.93.
To add insult to injury, Eovaldi has struggled in his career against the Giants. That could be one factor preventing him from getting the start. He’s 1-4 in five starts with a 13.30 ERA and 2.284 WHIP, giving up 35 runs—33 of them earned—on 44 hits in 22 1/3 combined innings.
LIVE BETTING
Buster Posey and Brandon Belt are key for the Giants offense. The two bring the most power to the order, though Brandon Crawford is also important at shortstop. With so many injuries, they need a few reliable bats.
Given the early struggles since the break, San Francisco needs a player to bare the weight on their shoulders to help jump start this offense again. Meanwhile, the Yankees’ pitchers need to circle these three names in the order as guys they cannot let beat them.
On the other side of the field, the Yankees have plenty of underperformers on offense, including Alex Rodriguez, who has picked up on his issues pulling the ball and has been working to fix it. You can see an adjustment in his swing.
Still, the team is saddled with players struggling to find their way. Didi Gregorius has been good at shortstop and has a .800 OPS, but outside of him, Brian McCann and Carlos Beltran are the only two players providing above league average production according to OPS+.
QUICK PICK
The Giants’ offense has slowed. The Yankees’ lineup is old. Those two factors could be a recipe for a low scoring affair, particularly with Cueto on the mound.
Sure, Cueto had an issue in his last start, but that was also fresh off an All-Star game appearance. The righty is now back into his routine and should bounce back with yet another strong performance.
While the bullpen helps the Yankees inch back closer to the Giants in this matchup, their pen is only a factor if they turn things over to them with a lead or a tie, the rest of the pen outside the big three is mediocre.
Look for Cueto to go deep, keep the Yankees’ bats relatively quiet while San Francisco does enough on offense against a very hittable Nathan Eovaldi.
MLB Odds: Giants 5, Yankees 2
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