Looking to continue his season-long dominance of the Padres will be National League All-Star game starting pitcher Johnny Cueto who will toe the bump for the Giants when these NL West rivals pick their series back up from Petco Park on Saturday night.
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ODDS ANALYSIS
With the Cubs marred in an end of June to early July swoon, the Giants swept in to claim the NL’s best record heading into the ASB. Bruce Bochy’s squad won four straight and eight of their last 10 to pull off the feat, and capped it off with a near no-hitter by Madison Bumgarner on Sunday Night Baseball. With a 6.5 game lead over the Dodgers, San Fran is now the lofty -1200 favorite to win the division. They’re 2-1 favorites – along with the Cubs – to win the NL and offer up a 4-1 return if they went on to live up to their even year dominance and win another World Series.
The Padres went into the break 13 games under .500, but have only cost MLB bettors a tick over $200 for the season. What that tells us is that the Friars have been pups with teeth, and they’ll no doubt be so once again in this one going up against Cueto whose made them their bitch all season long. Though they just dropped three of four as hefty dogs to the Padres, before that they went on to topple the D’backs and Yankees in that same role. They sit five games under .500 as a host, but enter this series having won four of their last seven in front of the hometown faithful.
PROBABLE PITCHERS
It’s been a dramatic turnaround for Johnny Cueto in 2016. Laughed off the mound a number of times last season, the right-hander leads the Giants’ staff in wins with 13 and complements them with a stellar 2.47 ERA and 115:24 K/BB ratio. Only Chris Tillman ($1413) has made more money for baseball bettors than Cueto ($1335) this season. San Fran is yet to drop a start with him on the road where he’s 8-0 with a 2.51 ERA and 1.07 WHIP. Last time he toed the bump at Petco, he threw a complete game four hitter at the Padres and stands 7-3 against them lifetime with a .214 batting average against.
With Tyson Ross, Cesar Vargas and now Erik Johnson all on the shelf, it’s allowed Luis Perdomo a little more wiggle room to strut his stuff and make his stay in the big leagues a little bit longer. Since getting shelled in two of his first three starts, the righty has been very much so serviceable. Each of his last three outings have all been of quality, and he pitched through the sixth inning in each start. That said, he’s still giving up way too many hits to hold onto his slot as he allowed 7, 9, and 9 in his most recent outing against the Dodgers in LA. This will be his first start back at Petco since righting the ship.
LIVE BETTING
It’s been nothing short of utter dominance for Johnny Cueto the three times he ran up against the Padres this season. The first outing saw him throw a complete game shutout and strikeout 11 in a 1-0 Giants win. The second saw him give up 1 ER and strikeout eight more through nine innings of the Giants 2-1 win. The most recent back on May 23 once again saw him throw a nine inning shutout masterpiece with another six Ks.
While San Francisco won all three games, each was only one by a single run. However, two of those starts came against Drew Pomeranz who is having himself an All-Star caliber season himself. If on once again, Cueto will likely have a little more breathing room to work with to not have to be so perfect.
QUICK PICK
As much as I’d like to back the home standing Padres in this one at a very nice dog money return, I can’t help but take note of Cueto’s dominance of this lineup. That said, the Friars will make him earn it once again as they’ve competed very hard against him the three times they opposed him. Anything can happen in this league on a gamely basis, but I’d feel a bit more confident backing San Diego on the run-line than the money-line.
MLB Odds: Giants 5, Padres 4
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