Seattle’s surging and sit just a game out of the second wildcard spot as they aim to snap their playoff draught. To do so, they’ll need to beat the teams under-.500 like the White Sox who they’ll take on the second game of a four game set on Friday.
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ODDS ANALYSIS
The Mariners’ won the first series of the year head-to-head against Chicago, taking two out of three in Seattle. Now they’ll look to win another series against the Sox, this time in the windy city.
Seattle is a .500 club on the road. The team took four of seven on each of its last two road trips.
Overall, the Mariners are playing great baseball. They’re 15-5 in their last 20 games and 22-13 since the All-Star break. Overall, they’re 67-57 with a run differential of 53-runs heading into Tuesday.
The White Sox have a -45 run differential and have struggled since April. They’re 14-21 in the second half and 8-10 in August. All in all, they have a .480 winning percentage, though the team is over .500 at home.
Based on standings and recent trends, the Mariners are the more stable choice and the total moneylines back that up. Overall, Seattle has been a profitable bet at $396 compared to the White Sox’s -$462.
PROBABLE PITCHERS
Neither team has announced its rotation for the four game series, including Friday’s showdown with each team’s rotation in flux.
For the White Sox, an injury to Miguel Gonzalez gave Anthony Ranaudo a start last time through the rotation, but without a game on Monday, the ChiSox have already pushed him back and may skip him altogether this time around. If that’s the case, we could see Chris Sale in primetime on Friday night.
Injuries are also plaguing the Mariners, but one pitcher that’s a sure thing and pitching like an ace again is Felix Hernandez. Hernandez would be slotted to pitch on Thursday, but it looks as though James Paxton will make his return on that day, pushing Hernandez to Friday to matchup against Sale.
The perennial Cy Young contenders should make this a tight, low scoring affair.
The 30-year old Hernandez is already in his 12th big league season with a 151 career wins and a 3.12 ERA. Here in 2016, he’s 8-4 with a 3.26 ERA in 17 starts. He’s tossed 110 1/3 innings and has a WHIP of 1.224.
The right-hander’s WHIP is high for him due to some command issues. He’s walking 3.8 per nine innings, but he allowed only one walk in eight innings his last time out. In that game, he held the Brewers to two runs on seven hits, striking out eight.
Hernandez hit the disabled list in late May after allowing six runs in six innings to the Twins. When he returned nearly two months later, he was a bit a rusty, but his last outing indicates his command is returning. In fact, over his last three starts, he’s allowed just five runs and 14 hits in 21 2/3 innings.
Meanwhile, on the other side, Sale is three years Hernandez’s junior and has five fewer seasons at the big league level.
He, however, has seven more starts this year than Hernandez, tossing 168 2/3 innings. He’s 15-6 with a 3.15 ERA and 1.026 WHIP overall with four complete games, including a shutout.
Speaking of shutouts, he shut out the Mariners the only time he faced them this year, going eight innings giving up just one hit though he did walk three.
The southpaw’s last outing was a shutout over eight innings, too. He held the A’s to just three hits in that game, bouncing back from a five runs, six and two-third inning outing against the Marlins before that.
LIVE BETTING
A few years back, the Mariners were a team that was stacked with pitching, but ranked at the bottom of the league offensively. Some blamed Safeco Field and while moving the walls in has certainly helped, the personnel on offense is better now, too.
Seattle currently ranks ninth in baseball and fourth in the American League with 586 runs scored. That’s 93 more than the White Sox who rank dead last in the AL in runs.
The Mariners boast a rather powerful lineup with the third most home runs in the sport. As for Chicago, only the Royals and Angels have hit fewer homers.
Against southpaws, like Sale, the Mariners have been a pretty good offense. They’ve actually scored more runs than any other team against lefties, though that’s more about sample size than anything else. Still, the team’s .749 OPS isn’t much removed from the .770 mark against righties.
As for the individuals, Mike Zunino powered a big homer on Monday, his ninth of the year, and has been very good since coming back up from the minors. He had hit below the Mendoza line the last two years, but got a much needed chance to iron out his swing and rebuild his confidence at Triple-A.
For the most part, the Mariners’ offense is centered around Robinson Cano, Kyle Seager and Nelson Cruz, but recently the team’s got some production from other spots in the order and that’s helped turn them into an above average offense.
For the Sox, Justin Morneau had provided a nice little boost for a team search far in wide for an offensive spark, but that spark has dissipated. He’s hitting just .219 over his last 32-at bats, striking out 10 times without a walk.
With Morneau cooling off, Jose Abreu having merely a mediocre season and Todd Frazier being boom or bust this offense is a bit dysfunctional.
The offense has really cooled with Frazier who has at least provided power being homerless in his last 11 games and having just one home run since August 2 and just three since July 20.
QUICK PICK
We have two top tier starting pitchers, but just one top tier offense: Seattle.
Offense is really the only place these teams are differentiated as the bullpens are posting nearly identical ERAs, slightly better than average overall in the majors.
Look for the Mariners to scratch out a few runs against Sale and the Sox pen, likely on a blast or two from one of the big three in the heart of the order. That should be enough to propel the Mariners to victory on the road.
The White Sox just don’t have the offense to be counted on against good pitching. Abreu is still a good player while Melky Cabrera and Adam Eaton are solid, too, but there’s just not enough depth and despite respectable names, the ChiSox offense has struggled for months now.
MLB Odds: Mariners 3, White Sox 2
Load your betting bankroll from your smartphone with BookMaker’s new cashier feature! Depositing and withdrawing funds from your account has never been easier. BookMaker's live betting platform means you always have access to odds and lines to every sporting event. Click here and start wagering today! First pitch for the game between the Seattle Mariners and Chicago White Sox is scheduled for Friday, August 26, 2016, at 8:10 p.m. ET at U.S. Cellular Field. The game will be televised live on WGN.
