Still on the fringes of the Wild Card race in the American League, the Mariners have the motivation angle in this series finale against the Angels while Los Angeles gets to try and play the role of spoiler against the Mariners’ team they’ve played .500 ball against in 16 games.
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ODDS ANALYSIS
The Angels are a truly bad team, but they’re far less terrible at home than on the road while the Mariners are under-.500 on the road. Look solely at these home/road splits, this game is actually a bit more evenly matched than the overall records might suggest.
The Angels also come into the series with the Mariners having beaten the Rangers on Sunday. Nevertheless, the series was the second straight series loss for Los Angeles after they took two of three from Seattle on the road.
The Mariners bounced back nicely following that series loss and have now won five straight and six of seven after taking three of four from first place Texas and sweeping the lowly A’s.
PROBABLE PITCHERS
While the season is lost for the Angels the return of Tyler Skaggs has been a bright spot.
Skaggs had a great start his last time out, holding the Rangers scoreless in six innings. It was his second six-inning, scoreless outing in his last three starts, though he did walk four in the game.
The young left-hander has made nine starts this year coming off of injury and walks have been an issue. He’s walked 21 in 48 innings. He has struck out 50 in that time, however.
Over the course of the year, Skaggs is 3-3 with a 4.13 ERA and 1.438 WHIP. While there’s plenty to be encouraged about if you’re looking to back the Angels, the high walk totals are still concerning. Giving Los Angeles free passes could be just what they need if it means men on base when Mike Trout and Albert Pujols come to the plate.
Skaggs certainly has talent, but his rust and inexperience could give Seattle the pitching advantage on Wednesday as they turn to a starter 10-years his senior in Hisashi Iwakuma.
Iwakuma’s numbers have declined some this year, but he’s still 15-11 with a 3.96 ERA and 1.286 WHIP. His strikeouts aren’t as high as Skaggs, but he’s walking nearly half as many per nine innings.
While that covers the differences, the similarities is Iwakuma is also pitching well of late with four quality starts in his last five appearances.
LIVE BETTING
Seattle has long been thought of as a pitchers’ haven. It’s been blamed for the down years in the middle of Adrian Beltre’s career and has been thought to eat away the power of a number of different hitters over the years, but overall the Park Factor has rated the stadium about average this season.
On top of that, the ball seems to be flying out off the bat of a number of different Mariners’ players. Keep this in mind when betting on the total. This isn’t as much of a pitchers’ park any longer.
Seattle has four players with at least 20 home runs with Adam Lind the latest to join that group. The other three all have at least 28 with both Robinson Cano and Nelson Cruz over the 30 mark.
While the park isn’t a fact, having a southpaw on the hill for the Angels may be. The Mariners’ lineup is very left-handed dominant with Cano, Lind and Kyle Seager, three of the four 20 homer bats all swinging from the left side.
QUICK PICK
The Angels pitching staff is fraught with injuries and those left standing haven’t produced this year. That’s been the team’s biggest downfall. Skaggs provides some hope as his stuff is better than most the arms they’ve turned to this year, but the bullpen remains a major question and Seattle has enough offense to give both Skaggs and the bullpen plenty of trouble.
Look for Seattle’s offense to put some distance in the score against the Angels in the later innings after Skaggs hangs close with Iwakuma through six.
Los Angeles just doesn’t have enough to keep up while the bullpen offers more options for manager Scott Servais. Iwakuma isn’t what he once was and with Trout and Pujols the Angels can do some damage, but the Mariner’s pen can close the door. Edwin Diaz is filthy in the ninth with 74 strikeouts in 42 innings.
Overall, look for plenty of runs for Seattle and take the over on the run total. As for the run-line, bank on Seattle breaking that too given their superior bullpen, veteran starter, deeper lineup and, of course, having something to play for while the Angels continue to coast to the end of the schedule.
MLB Odds: Mariners 7, Angels 4
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