A big one is set to go down in the AL West Sunday afternoon when the Seattle Mariners and Texas Rangers close their weekend series out with first place in the division likely on the line.
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ODDS ANALYSIS
The Mariners underachieved for years with Lloyd McClendon calling the shots. Thankfully upper management made a change in the offseason and brought a “serviceable” shot caller into the dugout in the form of former catcher Scott Servais. After finishing 10 games under .500 a year ago with an almost identical roster, the M’s stand eight games over .500 and up $379 for sports bettors through the first two-plus months of the season. After pulling off a miraculous comeback win against the Padres on Thursday night, the club moved to an unbelievable 19-8 on the road ($1200) – they finished one game under .500 on the road last season.
The Rangers are back to doing exactly what they did a year ago. Only this time, they’re doing a much better job of protecting their home turf in playing .666 ball in front of the hometown faithful that’s seen them reel in over $1K of profit for those that wagered on them in those games. Overall, the club’s nine games over .500 on the back of a starting staff that checks in No. 4 in quality starts with 36 and a defense that’s committed just 25 overall errors to rank No. 7 overall.
PROBABLE PITCHERS
Three of the Mariners five starting pitchers have allowed fewer hits than innings pitched. Unfortunately, that’s not the case for the righty taking the bump in this one for the visitors. Hisashi Iwakuma was one of the most underrated pitchers in the league a couple years back, but injuries have hampered his abilities the last couple seasons and its likely he’ll never revert back to his previous form. The Japanese import has given up 74 hits over his 69.1 innings and owns a 1.31 WHIP. Lifetime against the Rangers he’s 8-4 with a with a 3.50 ERA and .252 BAA.
Derek Holland has suffered the same type of fate as his opponent. Once an up and coming lefty with pretty darn good stuff, the injury bug changed all that and he’s now looked upon as a third or fourth starter with the capability of churning out a No. 1 output every now and again. He’s allowing 9.8 hits per nine innings and owns a 1.39 WHIP. While the walks are down, the lefty continues to be extremely hittable which bodes well for him in this spot considering Seattle is batting 18 points higher against righties.
LIVE BETTING
A pair of veteran bats are ones to target if you plan on doing some prop betting in this matchup.
Robinson Cano is in the midst of a bounce back campaign to finally earn the money upper management threw at him to bring him over from the Yankees a couple years back. He’s 15-for-40 lifetime against Holland with 3 double, 1 triple and 2 HR with 9 RBI and a couple walks.
In 42 career at-bats versus Iwakuma, Adrian Beltre has collected 13 hits with five going for extra bases and three leaving the yard. He’s also knocked in 5 RBI and walked twice.
Both of these guys will have each starter uneasy about pitching to them, so look to hit some of their props up if they present any type of value.
QUICK PICK
This rivalry has been dominated by the road team this MLB season with it capturing series wins the first two times these division rivals crossed paths. The M’s have taken three of the last four in Arlington, but it’s had all sorts of trouble solving the riddle that is Holland with the lefty 11-4 with a 3.39 ERA and .239 BAA against them lifetime.
I’m just not a fan of Iwakuma anymore and don’t think he’ll be able to keep the Rangers at bay enough to put his squad in a position to win. Look for the Rangers to turn the tables on the recent series trend and defend their house to hold onto their top spot in the division.
MLB Odds: Rangers 6, Mariners 4
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