If you just look at the history of these starting pitchers, you'll see plenty of reason to believe that the Seattle Mariners and Texas Rangers could put a ton of runs on the board on Wednesday afternoon.
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ODDS ANALYSIS
The Mariners and the Rangers were basically polar opposites last year in the regular season. If you bet on Seattle game in and game out, you ended up down 20.56 units for the campaign. Texas bettors though, ended up 29.55 units to the good.
The M's didn't perform poorly on their road, and their showings here in Arlington weren't miserable. They finished 40-41 outside of Safeco Field.
PITCHING MATCHUP
Wade Miley has never pitched well here in Arlington. He's lost both starts here in his career, posting a 4.63 ERA, and he was racked to the tune of a 5.73 ERA in two outings with the Red Sox last season against Texas.
Keep an eye on Miley late in this game. Batters knocked him around to the tune of a .309 average after he reached 60 pitches last year, and these Rangers love to take pitches and could get him to that 60 mark in a hurry.
Colby Lewis has pitched for the Rangers for years now, but he never seems to get his act together at home. He went 8-3 in his starts in Arlington in 2015, but he also had a 5.07 ERA.
Lewis finished last season with 17 wins, but his 4.66 ERA tells the tale of a pitcher which should've struggled.
Lewis was also awful in Spring Training, allowing 15 runs in his last 14.2 innings of work.
SITUATIONAL BETTING
The Mariners managed basically nothing off of Shawn Tolleson last season. Sure, they managed a run back in April off of him, but after he took over the closer's role for Texas, he threw five spotless innings, striking out eight and allowing just three men to reach base.
Tolleson got two saves and two wins against the Mariners last year and figures to be unstoppable in the ninth if his number is called in this one.
PROP TALK
Rangers’ batters were all over lefties last year. Adrian Beltre knocked 10 dingers in just 190 at bats against southpaws and batted .311. He's sure to get some protection in this one as well.
Texas had five qualified batters hit at least .266 against lefties last season, and that could set Beltre up for a big day against Miley and the M's.
ANALYSIS AND ODDS PREDICTION
Our favorite play in this game is the over in the first five innings. We do think this game will end up going past the number as well, but especially here during the day in Arlington with the weather expected to be relatively warm, the ball could fly out of the park.
We don't trust Miley in his first start with the Mariners, and with the way Lewis pitched down the stretch last season and during the spring, we see no reason to believe in him either.
Given the choice, we'd back the Rangers at home since we think they've got the slightly stronger bullpen, but the over is the right side.
Texas 8, Seattle 6
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