Don’t look now, but as of Thursday, the Mariners sit just six and a half back of the first place Rangers in the AL West with a big chance to cut into that lead, kicking off a three game on Monday.
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ODDS ANALYSIS
Head-to-head, the Rangers have had the Mariners’ number, beating them in eight of their 12 meetings including a three game sweep the last time Seattle traveled to the lone star state to face them.
This, however, is a different Mariners’ team. Well, it’s the same group of guys—mostly—but they’re playing much better. Sitting on the outside looking into the playoff picture right now, the Mariners have put themselves within shooting distance by winning 13 of their last 19. That’s even after dropping back-to-back games against the Gary Sanchez led Yankees on Tuesday and Wednesday.
As much as 11.5 games back at the end of June, the Mariners have closed the gap some in the division, too. Of course, some of that’s due to the Rangers’ inconsistent play over the last two months. Since the start of July, Texas is 23-24. They did beat Cincinnati to split a brief two game set on Wednesday, but they had lost two of their previous three series leading up to that against Tampa Bay and Detroit.
Texas is a good team and bettors have been rewarded for backing the squad with the highest total moneyline in baseball, but the Rangers over the last couple months have been harder to peg, though the team’s been better in August than it was in July.
PROBABLE PITCHERS
While there’s a lot riding on this series between NL West rivals, another interesting storyline is the pitching matchup.
The Rangers have already announced that Yu Darvish is scheduled to make this start while the Hisashi Iwakuma appears in line for the start for the Mariners. Both are veterans of the Nippon Professional Baseball league in Japan.
That interesting quirk aside, both pitchers are also reliable arms for their respective teams.
The younger of the two—Darvish—is fully healed from his Tommy John surgery and has now strung together seven straight quality starts. He’s lowered his ERA to 2.91 over his 11 starts, spanning 65 innings. He’s also posting a very strong 1.108 WHIP thanks to a lower than normal walk rate and a strong opponent batting average against. He’s also got his swing and miss stuff working with 11.2 strikeouts per nine innings.
The right-hander’s win-loss record is only 4-3, but Texas has won each of his last four starts. He’s been credited with two of those wins.
Darvish faced the Mariners earlier this year, before his second stint on the disabled list, lasting five and two-thirds and giving up three runs on six hits.
Iwakuma doesn’t boast stuff nearly as dominating as Darvish, but the 35-year old veteran knows out to pitch.
He’s a professional that gives his team a chance each and every time out, going 14-9 with a 3.81 ERA and 1.270 WHIP here in 163 innings of work. He’s striking out barely more than half the batters as Darvish per inning, but he’s able to induce weak contact and allow his defense to do their thing.
Monday will already be the fifth time Iwakuma will face the Rangers this year. In his previous four matchups, he’s gone 1-2 with a 3.24 ERA, allowing 25 hits, three home runs and six walks in 25 innings. The team is 2-2 in those four starts. For his career, he’s 9-5 with a 3.38 ERA against Texas.
LIVE BETTING
With so many starts against the Rangers over the years, we’ve got some pretty good sample sizes of Texas hitters against Iwaukma. For instance, we know he’s fair well against Elvis Andrus and Mitch Moreland, allowing 17 hits in 83 at bats. Though, we’ve also seen Adrian Beltre handle him well, going 13-for-45 with three home runs.
While Beltre could be troublesome for Iwakuma and the Rangers boast a stacked lineup around him, the Rangers have actually had some struggles putting runs on the board this month.
Despite adding Jonathan Lucroy and Carlos Beltran to an already strong offensive club, they’re outscoring only the Angels and A’s in the American League since the beginning of August with 83 runs in 21 games.
Seattle, during its run, has scored 101 runs this month to rank in the middle of the league.
For the Mariners, it’ll be worth keeping an eye on Nelson Cruz heading into this game. The Seattle slugger left the game Wednesday with back spasms and while he may be able to play, back issues could be a lingering issue that could limit a crucial player in this lineup.
As Cruz, Robinson Cano and Kyle Seager go, so go the Mariners and losing any of those three—or having any of them struggle—limits what this team can do on offense each game.
QUICK PICK
Should the Mariners hold the lead late, look for them to hold on with Steve Cishek, Vidal Nuno and Edwin Diaz in the back end all pitching well.
Otherwise, look for the Rangers to get the win at home. Texas has owned the Mariners this season and while Seattle is surging a bit, they hit a bump in the road against New York and will be on the road for this series where they’re merely a .500 ball club.
Fade Seattle on Monday and look for the under to pay out with the Rangers offense struggling in the month, Cruz’s back acting up and two strong starters on the bump for the game.
MLB Odds: Rangers 4, Mariners 2
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