The Mariners and Blue Jays square off in the middle game of a three game weekend set north of the border on Saturday. The Jays will embrace a return to the Great White North as they continue to push the envelope in the AL East while Seattle tries to stay afloat in the wildcard discussion.
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ODDS ANALYSIS
Seattle got a huge win in their series opener against Chicago on Monday coming from behind to win 4-3 in a game that they were dominated for eight innings by Chris Sale.
A win like that has a way of building confidence for a team and the Mariners certainly have the personnel to be a competitive team against the Jays with a nice collection of arms, strong lineup and reworked bullpen.
The Jays came out of the second half losing their first series to the A’s, but are still 33-19 since May 19.
PROBABLE PITCHERS
Neither team has announced their probable starter for Saturday, but it looks to be a battle of veterans with R.A. Dickey on the mound for the Jays against the Mariner’s Hisashi Iwakuma.
The 41-year old Dickey isn’t a dominating starter, but the knuckleball provides a different look for a powerful Mariners’ lineup.
Dickey hasn’t been the Jays’ best starter, but he’s been their most durable, leading the team with 122 2/3 innings pitched over his 20 starts. In those games, he’s gone just 7-10, but generally keeps his team in the game with a 4.11 ERA and 1.296 WHIP. He’s walking a few more than his career normal, but his hits allowed and strikeout are right in line.
The knuckleballer is coming off a poor outing in Oakland, allowing five runs in six innings to the A’s in a loss, snapping a three game quality start streak. With a low velocity pitch as his primary offering, Dickey can give you length. The only question is: how is the knuckleball working any given day? If it’s dancing around, he’ll have some success.
As for Iwakuma, the 35-year old right-hander is having his worst season since coming to the states. Despite a 4.01 ERA and 1.286, both well above what he posted in his first four years, he’s still 10-6 in his 19 starts and has done a good job at avoiding walks. For him control is key, though there is an issue of home runs and Toronto has the power to hurt him in that category.
Iwakuma comes into the game with the hot hand. He tossed six and two-thirds innings, allowing just one run going into the break against Kansas City. In his first start of the second half, he tossed seven innings against Houston, allowing just two hits and a walk.
If we’re looking purely at head-to-head stats against their respective opponents, Iwaukuma has the better track record. He’s 3-1 with a 2.40 ERA against the Blue Jays in his career while Dickey is 5-3 against Seattle, but has posted a 4.22 ERA in 49 innings.
LIVE BETTING
Offensively, the Jays and Mariners are very similar teams. They’re separated by just a single home run with Toronto up 134 to 133, having played one additional game.
In total runs scored, the Jays have a slight edge, too, but with just 19 runs overall and the Mariners are the team with the higher average .261 to .253 and the higher slugging, though just barely, at .439 to .438.
In terms of personnel, the Jays and Mariners are each led by a trio of players all with OPS+ numbers north of 137. For Toronto, that trio includes Josh Donaldson, Edwin Encarnacion and Michael Saunders. For the Mariners, it’s Robinson Cano, Kyle Seager and Nelson Cruz.
Interestingly, the weaknesses also come in similar places. Both have catchers with similar OPS numbers and each have a glove-first defender up the middle in Ketel Marte and Kevin Pillar, each with an OBP under .300.
Given all these similarities, the pitching and defense will have to be our differentiators. Defensively, Toronto has committed 19 fewer errors, but in the bullpen the Mariners have an ERA half a run lower than the Jays.
QUICK PICK
Record and home field would indicate that the Blue Jays have the advantage in this game, but these two teams are remarkably similar. It makes sense as both are in the conversation for wildcard spots as the trade deadline nears.
With Toronto at home, that may be enough to tip things in their favor under normal circumstances, even with Seattle remarkably even at home and on the road. Nevertheless, the difference here in the starting pitching. With a knuckler, it’s always hard to know what to expect, but the Mariners have gotten back-to-back very strong outings from Iwakuma who has a no-hitter to his name and the ability to shutdown offenses—even strong ones—when he’s on his game.
Provided Iwakuma can hand over a lead to the pen, Seattle’s core of relievers are strong enough to shut the door against Toronto.
MLB Odds: Mariners 5, Blue Jays 4
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