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The Cubs extended their division lead over the Cardinals 12-games with their win on Tuesday night. That’s the team’s largest division lead in August since 1929. In the final game of a four game set with St. Louis on Sunday, Chicago will have a chance to extend that lead even further.
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ODDS ANALYSIS
Is it a coincidence that the Cubs struggled without Dexter Fowler and now that he’s back the team is once again nearly unbeatable? Maybe, but there’s no doubt this offense clicks with Fowler in center.
Tuesday’s win over Los Angeles was Chicago’s eighth straight and their 11th win over their last 12 games. Going back even further, the Cubbies are now 18 for their last 24.
The Cardinals, heading into the series at least, are one of few teams to have a winning record against Chicago, going 4-5 in the first three series between these rivals. Much like Cubs would provide St. Louis a challenge when the Cards were stringing together division titles, the Cards are now returning the favor to Chicago as St. Louis tries to remain in the playoff picture.
While the Cubs are cruising, the Cards have dropped seven of ten.
PROBABLE PITCHERS
John Lackey will face his former team in St. Louis for the fourth time this season on Sunday and will matchup against the pitcher the Cards brought in over the offseason in part to replace him, Mike Leake.
Lackey’s first three starts against the Cardinals all resulted in quality starts though two of the three starts also resulted in losses.
Overall, Lackey allowed six runs over 20 innings while striking out 26 in those three starts against St. Louis.
In total this year, Lackey is 9-7 with a 3.56 ERA and 1.055 WHIP. He’s striking out a batter per inning and has given up 42 walks and 19 home runs in 151 2/3 innings of work.
In July, Lackey pitched to an ERA of 5.06 as the Cubs struggled, but the team has bounced back and so has Lackey. Over his last three starts, he’s allowed five runs in 21 innings for a 2.14 ERA and three team wins. His most recent outing was his best of the three, going eight innings of one run ball against the Angels.
Leake’s last start wasn’t too bad either. He gave up three runs over six innings against his former team, the Reds. That was the second straight game he matched up against them. The first time, he gave up seven runs in five innings. That was his third straight game allowing six runs or more.
Heading into the year, Leake was known as a reliable start. He wasn’t a top end guy, but could give you solid, predictable innings. Those innings have been less predictable in 2016.
He’s just 8-9 overall with a 4.79 ERA and 1.281 WHIP. His FIP indicates he’s been a bit unlucky and his BABIP backs that up. Still, when you lead the league in hits allowed some of that is on you.
To make matters worse, the hits against Leake are leaving the ballpark rather frequently, too. Giving up so many hard hit balls is a dangerous tendency against this stacked Chicago lineup.
LIVE BETTING
The Cubs are streaking on the strength of their arms, not their bats. Sure, they’re scoring over four and a half runs per game since the start of August and that’s not bad, but it’s not as good as their overall numbers either.
Added to that, the Cubbies have hit just six home runs in August as of Wednesday; Cincinnati is the only team in the league with less.
Does that mean the Cubs cannot hit homers or aren’t a great offense? Of course that’s not the case.
Chicago is a dominant offensive club with depth other teams can only dream of, but what it does mean is that this team scores enough to prop up its pitching and can score in a multitude of different ways, making them hard to pitch to and even harder to defend.
For pop, you have Anthony Rizzo and Kris Bryant with 24 and 28 homers respectively, for on-base percentage, the team has Fowler, Ben Zobrist along with Rizzo and Bryant all getting on at least 38.5-percent of the time.
Really, the weak link in the order is the $184 million man is Jason Heyward, but a bad season aside, we know he’s a multiple tool type player and someone that adds even more on defense.
Of course, the Cardinals’ bats are strong, too. They’ve scored the same number of runs as the Cubs this year, but they’re overall numbers are propped up by a strong first half. They’ve been pedestrian since the break and since the start of August have been outscored by Chicago despite playing an additional game.
QUICK PICK
Looking purely at the records and factoring in that this game is in Chicago, it’s easy to pick the Cubs to win this game and they are the safer bet.
That said, the Cards have played the Cubs tough this year and rivalry games like this are always a bit of a wildcard. If the odds get too lopsided, this game may be worth putting some cash on the underdog, but looking at this purely from a baseball, matchup angle, the Cubs should win.
Lackey has outpitched Leake this year and has thrown the ball well his last few times out while Leake—save from an okay last outing—has had some struggles.
Offensively, with Fowler back, the Cubs are outing hitting the Cardinals since the break.
Even looking at the bullpen the Cubs have the edge. Seung Hwan Oh has been huge for the Cards, but the Cubbies have their former closer—who by the way has a 1.70 ERA—now in a setup role for Aroldis Chapman who hasn’t allowed a run to the Cards since 2011. The entire Cards’ lineup is 2-for-38 against him in their careers with 22 strikeouts. Meanwhile, St. Louis has gone the other way with their setup man now closing due to injury and ineffectiveness.
MLB Odds: Cubs 7, Cardinals 5
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