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The Chicago Cubs were one of the biggest disappointments of the first half, sitting two games under-.500 at the break. Since then, the defending World Series Champions have returned to form, sweeping the Orioles and Braves in commanding fortune. Their next test comes against the St. Louis Cardinals with the series wrapping up Sunday night on primetime.
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ODDS ANALYSIS
The second half of the season has just started, but the Cubs offense has made the most of it. They’ve driven in 44 runs in six games, hitting 16 homers and looking like the dominant force they were expected to be when the season started.
As a team in the second half, they’re slugging .609 and hitting .316.
Since the beginning of July, Anthony Rizzo and Willson Contreras have combined for nine homers while eight different Cubs players have hit at least a pair of homers over the last 14 team games.
This team was built on depth and versatility last year and that looks to be back in full force. Kyle Schwarber looks more like Kyle Schwarber since his return from the minors. The wrinkle here could be the health of Kris Bryant, though X-Rays were negative after leaving the game on Wednesday.
While the Cubs’ post All-Star bats have come alive, the Cardinals have been average, much like they have all year.
Matt Carpenter is a good top of the order hitter. Dexter Fowler is a reliable piece. That’s all nice, but this team lacks thump. Jedd Gyorko is their most potent power bat with 14 bombs. When your offense has been led by Tommy Pham and Paul DeJong over the last month you know that’s just as much an indication about the team as it is praise for those two players.
PROBABLE PITCHERS
The Cubs will introduce Jose Quintana to the home crowd on Sunday. He’s just moving a bit north in Chicago.
The 28-year old southpaw had a great Cubs debut in his last start, going seven scoreless, allowing just three hits while striking out 12.
Overall, Quintana is 5-8 with a 4.20 ERA. Those numbers don’t exactly do him justice. The lefty has been the model of consistency during his young career with a 3.49 ERA.
His numbers are elevated this year, but save a rough stretch in May—allowing 15 runs in seven innings—he’s pitched like those past numbers in 2017.
Pitching in the AL his whole career, Quintana has only faced the Cardinals twice, but has found success. He’s allowed just two runs in 11.1 innings of work. He has allowed 16 hits.
On the other side, the Cardinals will look to Michael Wacha to counter the Cubs’ big midseason acquisition.
Wacha has bounced back after a tough year in 2016. He’s 7-3 with a 3.71 ERA in 17 starts, topped off by his best start of the year his last time out.
Over his last five starts, he’s allowed just five total runs in 30.2 innings. He’s struck out 34. In his last start, he allowed three hits and walked one in a complete game shutout.
The right-hander has not found success against the Cubs. He’s 4-4 against Chicago. He’s made 11 starts in 13 appearances, pitching 62.1 innings. In that time, he’s recorded 62 strikeouts. That’s okay, but he’s allowed 13 home runs and has a 6.35 ERA.
LIVE BETTING
The bullpen is a big differentiator between these teams. The Cubs have the second-best pen ERA in the National League. The team ERA is 3.30. The Cards’ team bullpen ERA is 4.04.
The Cubs’ sole All-Star representative this year was Wade Davis who’s recorded 18 saves and has a 2.25 ERA. He’s the anchor, but he’s got plenty of support.
Brian Duensing, Carl Edwards and Pedro Strop all have sub-3 ERAs while Hector Rondon has struck out 11.2 per nine innings.
As for the Cardinals, the pen has been hit-and-miss. They’ve had their moments, but have gone ice-cold from time-to-time, too.
Seung-hwan Oh has been a disappointment after an impressive rookie campaign. Kevin Siegrist was lights out last year, but has a 4.60 ERA and 1.568 WHIP this year. Trevor Rosenthal is pitching well now, but that’s not enough to swing this back in their favor.
QUICK PICK
Quintana showed why the Cubs were willing to part with their best pitching and position prospects despite his inflated ERA.
The lefty is a top-of-the-rotation arm and will give way to a lockdown bullpen to close things out. That’s a nice formula for success.
Beyond that, the Cubs’ offense has looked completely different in the second half. This—at least for now—is the team that won the World Series. They’re at home, on national television. They’re in position to make a statement that they’re back.
MLB Odds: Cubs 6, Cardinals 3
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