The St. Louis Cardinals and Miami Marlins wrap up a three game series with a game on national television on Wednesday night. The Cardinals are playing better baseball after a rough start while the Marlins find themselves several games under-.500 here in mid-May and are struggling to remain relevant in what is ultimately a very weak NL East division aside from the Nationals at the top.
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ODDS ANALYSIS
The Cardinals have overcome a rough start to get back to respectability heading into this game and much of that has come as a result of an improvement in the bullpen.
Overall, St. Louis still ranks No. 23 in baseball in bullpen ERA at 4.72, but that number has been dropping with quality outings out of the pen. Miami, by comparison, ranks ninth in baseball with a 3.69 ERA out of the pen.
The front office made bulking up the relief core a priority this offseason and it’s worked some, though Kyle Barraclough—who was already on the team—has been the best arm despite nine walks in 14.2 innings.
PROBABLE PITCHERS
This game will pin Lance Lynn against Tom Koehler as the starters. On the surface, the edge goes to the Cardinals.
Lynn has been surprisingly strong over his last four starts. He’s taken next to no time to come back from missing a full season and has given up just two runs in his last four outings combined. He’s throwing the ball as fast as ever and is once again the underrated hurler he’s always been.
The Cards have won each of Lynn’s last four starts and Lynn himself has gotten the decision. Within those last four outing, he’s allowed one run or fewer in each game and lasted at least six innings in each as well.
The 29-year old right-hander is 4-0 in his career against the Marlins, spanning six games and just four starts. He’s pitched to a 3.04 ERA against them in 26.2 innings and has struck out 30 batters in that span.
Koehler is a 30-year old right-hander who hasn’t ever reached the same level of success as Lynn. His best season came in 2014 when he pitched to a 3.81 ERA and 1.296 WHIP. Since then, his ERA has rose year after year as has his WHIP.
Here in the early going of 2017, Koehler is 1-1 with a 5.40 ERA and 1.500 WHIP in 30 innings of work. He’s only recorded 23 strike outs, but has already allowed 13 walks and a staggering nine home runs, including at least one in every single outing this year.
Since his first start, Koehler has also given up at least three runs in each start and has averaged just five innings a start this season.
The veteran right-hander has faced St. Louis on four occasions throughout his career and has struggled mightily.
Overall, he’s 1-3 in those four starts with a 7.84 ERA and 1.742 WHIP in 20.2 innings. He’s allowed 28 hits—including three homers—in those innings and has walked 14.
LIVE BETTING
Christian Yelich is part of a trio of outfielders in Miami that’s one of—if not the—best in the sport, but the young centerfielder hasn’t gotten the bat going to this point.
Yelich is arguably the most dynamic hitter on this team when right. He doesn’t have the power of Giancarlo Stanton or Marcell Ozuna, but he’s a better all-around hitter.
Yelich collected a hit in four at bats on Sunday, but is just 4-for-17 in the month of May and hasn’t hit a home run since slamming his fourth of the year on April 19.
With the rest of the lineup a bit sluggish, the Fish need to get Yelich going again to help support Stanton, Ozuna and J.T. Realmuto.
Over the course of the season, the Marlins have scored four more runs than the Cardinals in the same number of games, but St. Louis holds the advantage in team OPS—at least heading into Sunday by a gap of .761 to .713.
St. Louis continues to get excellent production—and pop—from Jedd Gyorko who could have fun hitting against the homer-prone Koehler.
QUICK PICK
Lance Lynn is the better bet on the mound and despite the home field edge for the Fish, the Cardinals also boast a solid enough bullpen and offense in comparison to the Marlins.
St. Louis is also trending upward after a rough start while the Marlins remain well under-.500 at this point.
Lynn is throwing the ball really well and the Marlins offense has just a few hitters producing average or better numbers. They can be pitched too and the Cardinals bullpen, while weak in the middle, has enough depth to get through three innings as Lynn is next to a sure thing to go six.
Take the Cardinals to hit a homer or two against Koehler, grab an early lead and hold it.
MLB Odds: Cardinals 6, Marlins 4
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