Wrapping up a three game series at Miller Park, the Milwaukee Brewers and St. Louis Cardinals finish an important, early three-game series as both clubs expect to compete with the Cubs for the NL Central title.
These two teams are often lumped together in conversation as part of a deep Wild Card field, but both teams have their sights set higher, at least for now. While Milwaukee had the upper hand at home earlier in this series, the pitching matchup favors the Cards with Carlos Martinez making his second start of the season opposite Jhoulys Chacin.
First pitch for the game between the Cubs and Marlins is scheduled for Thursday, March 29, 2018, at 12:40 p.m. ET at Marlins Park. The matchup will be shown on ESPN and WGN.
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Odds Analysis
We’re just a few games into the 2018 season so it’s hard to glean any major trends based on spring states and one series, but the Brewers’ bats have been swinging a bit better than the Cardinals in this extraordinarily brief sample size.
The Brewers have really enjoyed their new additions of Lorenzo Cain and Christian Yelich in the early going. The two showed why they were worth the acquisition cost already, combining to go 15-for-28 with a pair of walks and six RBIs in the opening series. Cain also stole three bases.
Travis Shaw is also having a fine start to the year after a breakout 2017 campaign.
On the other side, Marcell Ozuna isn’t off to as hot a start as his former Miami teammate. The slugging outfielder still needs to find his stroke, but he’s still an impressive presence in the heart of the order.
Dexter Fowler and Kolten Wong need get off the schneid with a hit after the first series. Part of the allure of the Cardinals’ offense is the expected production top-to-bottom. Right now, they’re not quite getting that.
Probable Pitchers
Carlos Martinez is amped and ready for his second start of the season after the first didn’t go according to plan.
Martinez struggled through four innings against the Mets mainly due to command issues. He walked six batters and gave up five runs as he couldn’t consistently find the plate. When he did get the ball over, however, the Mets were ready.
The success New York enjoyed against Martinez isn’t typical for team against him to start the season. In the season’s opening month, Martinez has a career 3.08 ERA, his second best month.
Overall, he’s a career 46-33 pitcher with a 3.45 ERA. After back-to-back seasons with ERAs just over three, his ERA did jump a bit to 3.64 in 2017 as the offense took off last year. He allowed a career high 27 homers, but kept New York in the park on Thursday.
In 23 career games—including 12 starts—Martinez is 5-4 against the Brewers. While only slightly above average, he’s pitched to a 2.18 ERA in 82.2 innings of work. Just like Thursday, walks have been an issue from time-to-time, but he’s done a good job avoiding damage and limiting the hits, posting a 1.173 WHIP with a 9.9 strikeout per nine inning ratio.
Martinez won’t be the only starter in the ballpark looking to bounce back from a rough outing on Wednesday.
To counter Martinez, the Brewers will start their newly acquired right-hander Jhoulys Chacin.
Hardly a top of the rotation arm like Martinez, Chacin is a bit of a career journeyman. The 30-year old has had a number of strong seasons. He was a very promising young arm in Colorado for a few years, but fell off the radar a bit until last year when he put together a strong 13-10 season with a 3.89 ERA for the Padres.
San Diego, of course, is an excellent place to pitch—even with the walls having been brought in. He thrived in that atmosphere with a 1.79 home ERA, but was 4-7 on the road with a 6.53 ERA in 16 road starts.
The road numbers were a red flag for a number of teams, but Milwaukee was willing to take that gamble.
Chacin made his first start of the season on the road so we’ll see if the home/road splits from last year hold up in 2018 even with a different home park.
The righty had a poor Brewers’ debut, allowing four runs on seven hits, walking two and hitting on batter 3.1 innings of work against the Padres in Petco Park of all places. Perhaps the allure of that park was the hometown fans behind him. The Brewers sure hope that’s the case.
Live Betting
The Cardinals’ offense is dangerous, the defense looks better than the last couple years, even if not fully back to the old Cardinals Way.
Really, St. Louis’s biggest weak spot is the bullpen and that remains the case on Wednesday with Greg Holland still at least a week away from joining the big league squad.
Without Holland and without would-be closer Luke Gregerson, the primary bullpen arms are Dominic Leone, Tyler Lyons and Bud Norris. Each of the three got into one game in the Cardinals’ opening series and none allowed a run, but Lyons was wild and Norris allowed a pair of hits in just one inning.
Meanwhile, Matthew Bowman and Sam Tuivailala each have already struggled through a couple outings, highlighting the lack of depth in the St. Louis pen.
For the Brew Crew, Corey Knebel had a monster season in 2017 with a 1.78 ERA in 76 games while recording 39 saves. The Brewers’ ninth is much more lockdown than the Cardinals. And in 2018, Knebel has already pitched twice. He’s been a bit spotty, giving up a run, but did strikeout four in two innings, reinforcing his dominance.
Setting up for Knebel, Josh Hader has filthy stuff and should transition back to being a starter, but for now, his stuff plays big in the pen. Matt Albers had a good year last year and has two scoreless frames to kick off 2018. Factoring in Dan Jennings, Jeremy Jeffress and Jacob Barnes and the team has a plethora of different looks and specialties to give Craig Counsell plenty of options to mix and match his way through the later innings.
MLB Pick
The Brewers are at home and they had the favorable pitching matchups in the first two games of this series, but look for St. Louis to steal at least one game with a win on Wednesday night.
Jedd Gyorko and Yadier Molina have both swung the bats well against Chacin in the past and the Cards have a strong lineup top to bottom that should take advantage of any struggles Chacin has at finding his location. The righty is not a major strikeout pitcher and the Cards should be able to put the bat on the ball and find some holes.
The bullpen is a concern for the Cardinals and for good reason, but the bats should do enough while Martinez rebounds off a wild first start to lead St. Louis to victory.
MLB Odds: Cardinals 7, Brewers 5
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