The Cardinals and Pirates are each still in a heated battle in the NL Wildcard race. St. Louis will look to extend their lead in the wildcard hunt in the three game set, by nabbing the series finale. St. Louis has done well against Pittsburgh this year, winning eight of 13 meetings.
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ODDS ANALYSIS
The Pirates suffered a bad loss on Sunday, dropping them to .500 and lowering their total moneyline to -$650. While the Cardinals’ win on Sunday moved them three and a half games up on the Pirates, they still only have a marginally better total moneyline at -$609. Neither team has been particularly predictable for bettors.
With the Cardinals having the season advantage over the Pirates that’s a tally in St. Louis’s column. The Pirates, however, swept the Cards the last time these two teams played in Pittsburgh. Nevertheless, overall, the Pirates are just a game over .500 at home heading into this series while the Cardinals have proven to be a better road team than home team with a 41-27 road record. Those 41 road wins tie them with Washington for the most in baseball.
PROBABLE PITCHERS
It’ll be up to a pair of talented rookies to close out this series with Jameson Taillon squaring off against Alex Reyes.
Taillon has made 14 starts at the big league level going 3-4 with a 3.25 ERA and 1.072 WHIP. His win-loss record doesn’t show just how good he’s been. The 24-year old right-hander has failed to record a quality start in just one of his last 10 starts when he gave up five runs in three innings to Milwaukee.
He, however, bounced back from that start to hold the same Brewers’ team to one run in six innings, giving up just three hits and not allowing a walk.
Overall, since the start of that 10-game streak, Taillon has pitched to a 2.80 ERA and the Pirates have won seven of those 10 games.
One thing Taillon has struggled with has been the homer. He’s allowed 10 in his 83 innings and St. Louis has some power to take advantage, but fortunately for the Pirates, most of those shots have been one or two run bombs as he’s done very well with his command, walking just 1.3 per nine innings and recording a 5.58 strikeout to walk ratio.
Reyes hasn’t shown the same command during his short major league career. The 22-year old right-hander has already walked 10 in 20 innings, but hasn’t yet allowed a home run.
In seven games—including two starts—Reyes is 1-0 with a 1.35 ERA and 1.150 WHIP. Even with his high walk rate, he’s recorded 2.4 strikeouts per walk thanks to a 10.8 strikeout per nine inning ratio.
Reyes has continued his minor league dominance at the big league level, though as a starter, he’s been a bit more hittable. Still, in the first start without a pitch count, he held the Reds to two runs over six innings, striking out seven.
Reyes was good in his starts, but dominant out of the pen. His propensity to allow walks has hurt him the second and third time through the order.
LIVE BETTING
Pittsburgh’s been a team that’s streaked both positively and negatively and right now, there’s plenty of negative.
Offensively, the Pirates have been shutout in three of its last five games, but have scored nine runs in the other two games.
Over a larger sample size the Pirates have scored the fewest runs of any team in the NL other than the Phillies since the All-Star break. The team’s struggled to get consistent production with Andrew McCutchen having a significantly down year.
The Cardinals offense was what carried them early with the starting pitching underperforming, but of late the offense has fallen back into the middle of the pack. St. Louis continues to find production from unexpected places, but injuries have really eaten into this roster.
Currently, Aledmys Diaz and Matt Holliday are on the DL and both are keys to this offense. Diaz has the best numbers on the team while Holliday has always been the dangerous presence in the heart of the order.
It, however, does help that Randal Grichuk has turned his season around after a rough start. He’s got effortless power, but has recently come out of a season long slump. With him producing along with Matt Carpenter, Stephen Piscotty, Brandon Moss and Jedd Gyorko, the Cards still has more reliable offense than the Pirates.
QUICK PICK
The Pirates swept the Cardinals the last time they played in Pittsburgh, but overall the Cardinals have won eight of 13 games against the Pirates and are a dominant road team.
As for the pitching matchup, the slight edge goes to the Pirates, but both starters are young and talented and this game could tip in either team’s advantage. Overall, with the trends the way they are, look for St. Louis to come away with a narrow victory as the Pirates have been a very trendy team and the trends aren’t going in their favor.
MLB Odds: Cardinals 5, Pirates 4
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