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The way things are shaping up in the National League, the St. Louis Cardinals and Pittsburgh Pirates could be headed for a one-game playoff in October to determine who gets to take on the Cubs in the NLDS. There's a tremendously long way to go for that to be the case, but games like this one on Sunday Night Baseball could end up determining who plays in and hosts the Wild Card Game in a season where no one is running down the North Siders.
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PITCHING MATCHUP
Mike Leake has had a couple stinkers, but for the most part, he's been downright solid for the Cards this year. He was ripped by his old team, Cincinnati in his last start on Tuesday night, but as live bettors, we're not going to let that deter us in this one.
Sure, a 4.22 ERA is a bit off-putting, but Leake has been right around that point for much of his career. His velocity is still there, batters are still only hitting right around .258 off of him, he's not walking all that many men (14 in 74.2 innings), and his WHIP is still low at 1.18. Maybe more important is the fact that his FIP (4.67) and xFIP (4.16) are right in line with where they should be.
Leake isn't getting particularly lucky or unlucky, and that means this is who he is. If we get the man who had allowed just six runs in his previous five starts before getting smashed by Cincinnati, we're getting some really good value on the road on a generally unheralded pitcher in live betting.
And then there's Jonathon Niese, the man who will be starting for the Bucs on Sunday. He's a nice pitcher for sure, but there are some alarming problems which are sure to catch up with him at some point.
Niese has a 3.93 ERA, but his FIP is over a run higher than that at 5.08. He actually has a negative WAR at -0.1, and a lot of that is due to his unusually high strand rate of base runners of 81.0 percent.
At some point, this is all going to catch up to Niese, and live bettors need to be aware of it heading into this one, particularly versus a lineup without any truly easy outs to get.
ADVANCED STATS
The Pirates have almost quietly been raking this year. Their pitching staff has been an unmitigated disaster, and that's why we're starting to see some of their kids from the minors at least considered for starts.
But still, if Leake starts leaving too many balls over the place, the red hot middle of the order with Josh Harrison, Andrew McCutchen, Jung Ho Kang and Gregory Polanco can really make him pay. This is a Pittsburgh team averaging .277 as a club with an OPS of .781.
Here at home, live bettors have benefited from the Pirates batting .293 with a .440 slugging percentage. There's no reason to think those numbers won't keep up.
TALKING BULLPENS
We've spoken about just how bad Trevor Rosenthal has been this season several times before, but as a live bettor, if he's in a save situation, you have to be pretty darn confident. Yes, that 3.32 ERA is ugly for a closer, as is the fact that he has 16 walks in 19.0 innings of work on the season.
However, with Rosenthal, you're getting a man who has a 0.00 ERA when pitching in save situations this year. There's exactly one other closer in baseball who can say that – Fernando Rodney.
Granted, if you've live bet on those two men before, it's no consolation to you if you remember one of their many blown saves of yesteryear. But it's really tough to argue with these stats on Rosenthal right now, and especially since public perception suggests he's going to blow saves at a relatively high clip, the live betting odds might be on your side to back him to finish off a tight game, even on the road against a really strong offense.
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