The Rangers and Orioles wrap up a three game series on Thursday night. The two enter the series needing to get back in the win column as they hold shrinking leads in their respective divisions.
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ODDS ANALYSIS
The Orioles are a very streaky team. Dating back to July 9, they won four straight, then lost four. They followed that up with five wins and then another five losses.
Sunday snapped that latest losing skid, giving the Orioles a win to avoid the sweep in Toronto and they’ll hope that’s a start of another stretch of wins.
Returning home could help make that happen. Baltimore is the best team in baseball at home, going 37-16 while the team is seven games under-.500 on the road. That’s a large part of the Orioles’ streakiness.
In fact, the previous series between these two teams was in Texas with the Rangers taking three of four.
That experience could help Texas have confidence heading to Baltimore, though the Rangers are barely over .500 on the road themselves and were just 11-15 in July. Nevertheless, they ended the month on a high note, winning four straight against Kansas City.
PROBABLE PITCHERS
A.J. Griffin is slated to get the start for the Rangers in this series finale. The 28-year old right-hander has been good when healthy, going 4-1 with a 3.99 ERA and 1.256 WHIP in his 13 starts.
He’s back in the big leagues after missing each of the last two seasons following serious elbow issues. He’s recovered well, though his peripheral numbers suggest some of that’s been based on lucky. He’s giving up just 7.6 hits per nine innings due to a low BABIP and he has given up 10 home runs in 67 2/3 innings.
Even before his injury issues, he gave up a league leading 36 home runs in 2013 for the A’s in 200 innings. His long ball issues aren’t likely to play well in Baltimore against a powerful Orioles lineup. His 3.7 walks per nine innings, however, may not be as big of an issue.
Sure, free passes could lead to multi-run blasts, but the O’s aren’t a overly patient bunch and tend to swing early and often.
Looking at Griffin’s more recent numbers, he’s thrown seven games since returning from the disabled list in late June, allowing 19 earned runs in 34 innings for a 5.03 ERA.
The most innings he’s thrown since his return has been the five and two-thirds he recorded last time out against the Royals. He pitched well in that game, allowing only two earned runs.
Still, unlikely to give the Rangers six innings, Texas will need its bullpen to cover at least three innings. Texas’ bullpen has the worst ERA in the AL though the pen has gotten better throughout the year after a very, very rough start. Sam Dyson, Tony Barnette and Jake Diekman all have sub three ERAs at the back end. And the team did add Jeffery Jeffress at the deadline, too.
For the home team, starting pitching is the obvious weakness. The Orioles added Wade Miley at the deadline and while the O’s have yet to announce Thursday’s starter, Miley seems like a likely candidate.
Vance Worley would be in line to make the start, but he’s expected to be bounced from the rotation back to the pen in favor of Miley.
Miley hasn’t had a great season with a 7-8 record, 4.98 ERA and 1.348 WHIP. He’s allowing too many hard hit balls including 1.4 homers per nine innings. That said, he’s pitched better of late, giving up six combined runs in his last three games—all quality starts.
He’s already faced Texas three times this season, struggling in two starts in April, allowing 11 runs in 12 innings, but rebounding in a start on June 12, allowing three runs on four hits over five innings.
LIVE BETTING
Adam Jones belted his 20th home run of the season on Sunday afternoon in the 12th inning to help secure a win for Baltimore. That gives the Orioles four players with at least 20 home runs heading into the Texas series.
In addition to Jones, the 30 bombs for Mark Trumbo and 22 apiece for Chris Davis and Manny Machado, Jonathan Schoop has added 17 while Pedro Alvarez has belted 13 as a part-time player.
There’s no doubt the Orioles have plenty of power. They’re 154 home runs leads all of baseball. While they can mash, they are also very streak at the plate do to all the swing-and-miss in their game.
They had the best OPS in the league in April and June, but scored just 89 runs in July, hitting .235 as a team with a dismal .664 OPS. Both Trumbo and Davis are ice cold and Machado has slowed down, too.
Trumbo is batting just .140 over his last two weeks while Davis’s average is down to .222 while he leads the league in strikeouts with 144. He’s hit just .153 over the last month with just three home runs and 37 strikeouts. Since the start of the second half, he’s 6-for-49 with one extra base hit, a double, and 22 strikeouts in 14 games.
The team has really struggled with runners in scoring position over the last few weeks and are hoping that by reacquiring Steve Pearce from Tampa Bay helps given his success with RISP this year.
For the O’s, it’s really a lot of boom or bust. Texas has a power, too, with Ian Desmond and Rougned Odor each with at least 20 homers, but they’ve also got some speed and contact guys, too. Added to the power—and contact for that matter—are Carlos Beltran and Jonathan Lucroy who’ll fill in at designated hitter and catcher respectively. Beltran’s addition comes now that Prince Fielder is on the shelf. Beltran’s bat has come alive this year and he profiles well in the DH role for Texas. Before the deal, Texas had a meager .654 OPS from the DH spot this year.
The Rangers have been mediocre in runs scored since the All-Star break, having plated 12 more runs than the Birds, but Beltran and Lucroy help lengthen the lineup and Mitch Moreland has begun hitting, too, after a rough first half. The biggest question now is: how quickly do Beltran and Lucroy adjust to their new teams? Lucroy’s adjustment is biggest concern has he has to learn a new pitching staff on the fly.
QUICK PICK
The Orioles’ offensive slump is concerning, but an extra innings win with the offense breaking out in the 12th could be just what the doctor order. Of course, returning to Orioles Park could be the solution, too.
Baltimore is just too good at home and the Rangers too mediocre on the road to expect Texas to take this game, particularly given its Griffin on the bump.
Look for the Orioles bats to hit a couple in the seats, giving them enough runs to support Miley. They’ll need him to just give the team five or six innings before the bullpen can take over. The Orioles have best bullpen in the American League with a 3.06 ERA.
MLB Odds: Orioles 6, Rangers 4
Load your betting bankroll from your smartphone with BookMaker’s new cashier feature! Depositing and withdrawing funds from your account has never been easier. BookMaker's live betting platform means you always have access to odds and lines to every sporting event. Click here and start wagering today! First pitch for the game between the Texas Rangers and Baltimore Orioles is scheduled for Thursday, August 4, 2016, at 7:05 p.m. ET at Oriole Park at Camden Yards. The matchup will be televised regionally on FOX Sports Southwest and MASN.
