The Red Sox will be out for some revenge over the best bet in all of baseball when they close their three game series out with the Rangers from Fenway Park on Hump Day night.
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ODDS ANALYSIS
For the second straight season, Jeff Bannister is overlooking the most lucrative bet in all of baseball. The Rangers came up just short of making $3k for their betting backers last season, and through 83 played games this season, the team owns a $2750 return on investment. The club does invade Boston on a bit of a downswing after splitting a series with the Yankees and then dropping one at Minnesota in embarrassing fashion over the weekend. Regardless, the team owns the best money-mark in the AL when on the road ($1088).
After getting out to a torrid start through the first couple months of the season, Boston came back down a bit throughout the month of June. The club just put an end to its series losing streak that went to three after taking two of three from Mike Trout and the Angels over the weekend. The BoSox have been a bit better when at home in winning 25 of 44, but still finds itself $271 in the red due to going off the betting board a big chalk a majority of the time.
PROBABLE PITCHERS
Though not striking out nearly as many batters as he did before going under the knife, Martin Perez has been a key cog in the Rangers excellent start through the first half of the season. He’s 7-4 overall with a 3.39 ERA and .259 batting average against, but has been much better in Arlington (2.48 ERA) than on the road where his ERA swells to 4.38 and WHIP to 1.44. He pitches to contact, and that’s a terrible thing to do against Boston. Lifetime against the Red Sox, he’s 2-1 with a bloated 4.91 ERA and .326 batting average against.
Boston’s pitching staff is still not World Series caliber. While someone will no doubt be brought in to help shore it up come the deadline, the unit as a whole has issues. If not for Steven Wright and his fantastic unforeseen campaign, the BoSox would likely possess the worst starting staff in the AL East. He’ll be out for some retribution in this one after Texas peppered him for seven hits but only 3 ER even though he allowed eight in a 10-3 loss. His defense really let him down. At home, he’s 5-1 with a 3.02 ERA and .242 BAA.
LIVE BETTING
As unforgiving and potent as each of these offenses are, I can’t help but think it’s going to get real ugly for both of these starting pitchers; especially if its hot and humid out.
Wright’s knuckler could dance if that’s the case, but if not, look for Texas to once again get to him. These teams already played to high scorers in two of their first three meetings in Arlington this season. The Rangers stand 21-20-2 to the over when on the road to date, while Boston has cashed over tickets at a 21-13-3 rate at home.
QUICK PICK
How this rivalry has recently played to low scorers when the teams met up at Fenway is beyond me. I will simply sweep that notion under the rug and pretend it doesn’t exist for this match-up. Wright isn’t going to continue pitching nearly as well as he has all season, as he’s pitching way over his heads right now. Perez simply doesn’t have overpowering stuff.
As powerful as each of these offenses are, look for them to take advantage and put some crooked numbers on the board in a high scoring thriller.
MLB Odds: Red Sox 8, Rangers 6
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