The second half of the 2016 MLB season picks back up on the Northside of Chicago at Wrigley Field where the Cubs will attempt to build off a badly needed win at Pittsburgh heading into the All-Star break against a Rangers side that also went into it scuffling.
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ODDS ANALYSIS
At one point in time, both the Rangers and Cubs owned the largest leads of any division leader. While that’s still the case, each has seen its breathing room shortened after going on prolonged losing streaks heading into the break.
Texas dropped a four game series to the Twins through Sunday to fall to 3-9 over its last 12 ultimately costing those that backed them throughout that stretch a hefty $688. As for Chicago, it fell in nine of its last 11 games played (-$1441) entering the break, and because of it, now ranks out as the No. 23 worst bet in baseball costing those that backed them $826 to date.
The Rangers have played some of their best ball when on the road where they’re 25 up and 21 down – good for a $1080 return on investment. The Cubs currently sit 12 games over .500 as a host, but have still cost their wagering supporters $445 overall due to normally going off the betting board such heavy chalk.
PROBABLE PITCHERS
For all intents and purposes, Martin Perez has been a serviceable arm within the Rangers starting rotation. He’s 7-5 with a 3.85 ERA and Texas has won 10 of his 18 overall starts. That’s where the fun stops. He’s allowing just under nine hits per nine inning pitched, and doesn’t strikeout anyone evidenced by his paltry 4.4 K/9 ratio. He’s also averaging almost four walks per nine innings.
That simply won’t continue to get the job done, and the effects of not being able to dominate the opposition with his stuff has shown recently with him 1-1 and the owner of a 5.29 ERA and 1.59 WHIP over his last three starts. This will be his first ever appearance against the Cubs.
Kyle Hendricks has held his own cemented as the fifth starter in a Cubs’ starting staff that dominated throughout most of the first half of the season. He’s one win away from matching his career high in wins (6), and will have an excellent shot at pulling that feat today against a Rangers offense that’s never seen the lefty’s changeup before.
The righty has been at his absolute best at home where he’s 5-1 with a stellar 1.67 ERA as well as during the day when he’s allowed just 41 hits through 47 innings and the opposition hitting .236 against him.
LIVE BETTING
Both teams pitching staffs were peppered heading into the break. Texas conceded an average of 8.7 runs per game over its last 10 games, while Chicago’s staff was roughed up for an average of 7.5 runs per game during that same stretch.
The weather has turned in a big way in Chicago the last couple weeks. It’s humid as heck right now, and that means balls will continue to fly out of the yard at Wrigley – especially with the wind blowing out. Each of Hendricks’ last three starts combined to go over, and I don’t see Perez having much success against what will no doubt be a determined Cubs offense even though most partook in the All-Star break festivities.
QUICK PICK
It’s going to be interesting to see how each of these teams perform right out of the break with each unable to get out of its own way heading into it. Chicago will no doubt be installed another hefty favorite, and rightly so with Hendricks the more dominating of the two starting pitchers.
The Cubs have won six of his eight starts at the corner of Clark and Addison while Perez has been a much better pitcher in the comforts of his own ballpark where his ERA checks in at 2.48 compared to 5.23 when on the road. With that the case, look for Chicago to get to him early and often and for Hendricks to match his career high in wins by tossing his eighth quality start of the season.
MLB Odds: Cubs 8, Rangers 3
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