A pair of veteran hurlers will take to the bump at Wrigley Field Sunday afternoon when Cole Hames leads the Texas Rangers into battle against John Lackey and the Chicago Cubs in the finale of their three game interleague set.
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ODDS ANALYSIS
Texas wrapped the 2015 regular season as the most lucrative team to bet on. Through the first half of 2016, MLB bettors are once again in love with Jeff Bannister’s squad with it once again churning out the most return on investment through the team’s first 90 games played ($2422). It hasn’t matter where they’ve played either, as they’ve surpassed $1K both at home and on the road. The team did hit a snag right before the All-Star break however in dropping two of three to the Twins at Target Field. Against the NL to date, the Rangers have won six of eight.
In dropping nine of their final 11 games played heading into the ASB, Joe Maddon’s squad went from being a top 10 bet in the game to finishing up eighth worst bet overall. That’s what happens in baseball when you go on a prolonged losing streak and go off the board 2-1 favorites in a majority of those games. Still, the Cubs are the +185 favorites to represent the NL in the World Series, and +365 odds on favorites to win the whole darn thing entering the second half of the season. They’ll look to get back on track against the best team in baseball – per record – at home where they’ve played .650 ball to date.
PROBABLE PITCHERS
The move to bring Cole Hamels into Arlington at the trade deadline last season didn’t come with much fanfare. That was likely due to him being a bit better than mediocre pitching for a pathetic Phillies team. But with the Rangers atop the AL West standings, Hamels has once again pitched like the staff ace Texas hoped it was bringing in. He leads the Rangers starting staff in wins (9), ERA (3.21) and WHIP (1.33). Texas has won 13 of his 18 overall starts, and he’s been flat out nasty on the road where he’s 6-1 and sports a 2.09 ERA and 1.14 WHIP. He’s excelled in his career against the Cubs in going 4-1 with a .198 batting average against, and owns a 2.18 lifetime ERA at Wrigley Field.
After making Chicago look foolish the last two seasons pitching for the hated rival Cardinals, Cubs fans were psyched to have the veteran right-hander exchanging his cardinal red jersey for Cubbie Blue. The veteran has fit right into Maddon’s starting rotation, and is one of the main reasons why the starting staff still owns the best ERA in the game at 3.09. Though he hasn’t won a game since the beginning of June, he’s been a tough nut to crack at home where his ERA is almost a full run lower than his season-long ERA, and he’s conceded just 40 hits in 55+ innings of work.
LIVE BETTING
With it being getaway day, it presents a scenario where runs could be tough to come by with each team possibly resting some of their starters and looking forward to the next series. Texas has to fly to Anaheim to battle Albert Pujols and the Angels on Monday night. Chicago has a major revenge bout on tap with the Mets who just embarrassed them in NY at the beginning of July.
This puts both Hamels and Lackey in an excellent position to dominate early, and because of it, I suggest hitting the under for the first five innings at a possible plus-money return.
QUICK PICK
This will be Hamels first start at Wrigley since he tossed a no-hitter there in late July of last season. Even with the Mets on deck, this is a huge series for the Cubs who saw most of its luster from an exceptional first 2+ months wear away with its swoon right before the break. Chicago’s been a moneymaker versus left-handed pitching to date in going 20-10 on the season.
Look for Kris Bryant and company to go all out to defend their house and snag the series win in front of a packed house.
MLB Odds: Cubs 5, Rangers 3
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