Texas swept the Astros in their first series of the year, but Houston is at home for this set and they’re plenty better there which should make this middle game of a three game weekend set a dogfight.
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ODDS ANALYSIS
Houston is still pulling up the rear of the AL West while Texas is within range of Seattle and the divisional top spot.
The Astros have been a rough team to back all year long. They had high expectations coming into the year, leading to their -$1,265 moneyline when the bottom fell out, but now that expectations have dropped, it’s not a bad time to back Houston as their fortunes seem to be turning around.
PROBABLE PITCHERS
Derek Holland is the projected starter for the Rangers on Saturday. The 29-year old southpaw is off to a rough start to the season with a 5.63 ERA and 1.425 WHIP, but his FIP sits at 4.08 indicating he’s been a bit unlucky.
Also, while his ERA is inflated, he’s 3-3 on the year thanks to solid run support and a few good outings. Overall, Holland’s stats are skewed due to a really bad outing against Toronto at the beginning of May. In that game, he allowed 11 runs on 11 hits and three walks in just two and two-thirds innings. He followed that up with another outing where he failed to get through three, but his last time out was a good one, throwing a quality start against Oakland.
Overall, Holland has four quality starts in his eight games, and in his only start this year against Houston, he allowed just two runs, but lasted only five innings throwing 105 pitches.
For Houston, the starter for the Rangers series has yet to be announced. Dallas Keuchel, Collin McHugh and Doug Fister are all pitching in the White Sox series, leaving Mike Fiers, Lance McCullers and Chris Devenski all as options for Saturday depending on how the rotation shakes out.
Devenski has been the best of the bunch. He’s got just four starts in 10 outings, but has a 3.24 ERA and just two homers allowed in 33 1/3 innings. Fiers, meanwhile has a 4.63 ERA and McCullers has made just one appearance since coming off the disabled list.
He looked rusty, allowing five runs on seven hits and not making it out of the fifth. To be fair, that was against a hot hitting Red Sox team. He had a 3.22 ERA in 22 starts last year and allowed just one run in eight rehab innings this year.
LIVE BETTING
Shawn Tolleson blew his second straight game on Tuesday, giving up seven runs in his last two outings. The Texas closer’s ERA now sits at a whopping 9.20. He’s had just two scoreless outings in his last six.
Texas will need Holland to give them a number of innings. Sam Dyson and Jake Diekman are reliable arms, but the pen cannot be counted on to give Texas much outside of those two in a tight game.
Fortunately for the Rangers, Houston’s pen hasn’t been trustworthy either. The team sold the farm for Ken Giles who has a 6.89 ERA and closer Luke Gregerson a 4.08 ERA, much too high for a closer. Like Texas, Houston’s pen boils down to a couple of reliable arms in Will Harris whose been nearly unhittable and Pat Neshek.
QUICK PICK
Look for plenty of runs in this game given the bullpen struggles of both teams and the questions floating around the starters.
The offenses for both Houston and Texas have also been on top of their games. In the month of May, the two teams rank third and sixth in all of baseball respectively in runs scored.
Houston’s really picked up the pace in their last four games as of Wednesday, scoring 27 runs. They’ve got plenty of pop and one of the best young trios in baseball with Jose Altuve, Carlos Correa and George Springer, all swinging well.
In Texas, Nomar Mazara, Adrian Beltre and Rougned Odor are swinging well and Ian Desmond has heated up after a slow start. Bank on plenty of runs, but with Houston’s improved offense, take them to pick apart the Rangers bullpen and pull out the win late at home.
MLB Odds: Astros 9, Rangers 7
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