The defending World Champions are floating right around .500 and Texas has been sliding since getting out to a massive division lead, though the Rangers are still sitting comfortably atop the AL West for now. The two will meet in the middle game of three on Saturday evening.
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ODDS ANALYSIS
A dynamic home team, the Rangers are just average on the road while the Royals are still the best team in the league if they’re at home.
Kansas City is 30-13 at home as Kauffman remains a challenging place to play for the opposition. The Royals have been plagued with injuries this year and have lost some of their luster, but the fans continue to believe and get behind their team when they’re in town.
The home record has allowed the Royals to stay in the black in total moneyline at $410 and despite the recent struggles, the Rangers have still be the most profitable team for bettors in baseball this year with a total moneyline of $2,239.
PROBABLE PITCHERS
All-Star southpaw Cole Hamels is on the bump for the Rangers. He was on the mound for the team’s last two wins as of Tuesday and will look to get them in the win column again on Saturday.
Over 19 starts, Hamels is 10-2 with a 3.00 ERA and 1.275 WHIP in 120 innings pitched. He’s out produced his FIP by a wide margin which has been bit skeptical of his results given a 3.5 walk per nine inning ratio.
Hamels will take the mound on the road on Saturday and that’s good news for Texas. The lefty is 7-1 with a 1.84 ERA on the road.
As a team, the Rangers have won seven of Hamels’ last eight starts even though they’ve been on a considerable downward skid when anybody else has started.
Opposite of Hamels, the Royals will throw their emotional flamethrower Yordano Ventura.
The 25-year old right-hander was supposed to step up as the team ace last year, but ended with a 4.08 ERA, but did have some nice starts down the stretch. He took a further step back so far in 2016, going 6-7 with a 4.97 ERA and 1.411 WHIP. Along with an inflated WHIP, Venutra has also seen his strikeout rate drop, walk rate increase and home run rate jump by 50-percent.
Ventura’s last two starts have both been good, going seven innings in each and allowing just five total runs in those 14 innings. Before that, however, he gave up four runs without getting out of the third against Philadelphia and went five and a third, giving up seven against St. Louis.
Ventura pitches better at home, though the difference is marginal, but it’s no wonder given the expansiveness of Kauffman.
Over his career, Texas has been a tough opponent for Ventura. He’s 2-2 against the Rangers in four starts with a 4.84 ERA and 1.612 WHIP.
LIVE BETTING
Kansas City is a strong offense against southpaws, posting a .780 OPS that ranks third in the American League.
Of course, Hamels is a difficult lefty to face, but KC’s success against them is certainly noteworthy.
On the other side of things, the Royals’ .791 OPS at home ranks seventh in baseball, giving them a double whammy on offense. Texas has just a .712 OPS.
All things being equal, however, the Rangers have the better offense. Here in July, they’ve outscored Kansas City by five runs and have outscored them on the year by 82. Luckily for the Royals, all things aren’t equal on Saturday.
QUICK PICK
The Royals make Kauffman Stadium a tough place to play for any opposing team and while Hamels has shown to be a very good pitcher on the road, that may not be enough to overcome the Royals’ home magic.
Hamels starts have been the exception to the Rangers’ recent struggles, but even with him pitching well, the rest of the issues remain: the inconsistent offense, the struggling bullpen and the defensive miscues.
Of course, Kansas City is a flawed team, too, and Ventura is the worse of the pitchers, but the Royals’ bullpen remains its strength and unlike Hamels, Ventura needs only give K.C. five solid frames.
Typically, it’s about backing the better arm, but in this case, look to the Royals.
MLB Odds: Royals 5, Rangers 4
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