In his last regular season game of his career, David Ortiz will lead the Red Sox into action against the Blue Jays as each team gets one last chance to add to their win total before heading to the postseason.
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ODDS ANALYSIS
Toronto and Boston are the top teams in the AL East so it only makes sense that they’re netted at 8-8 in the season series heading into the final three games.
Look for the Red Sox to make a nice late push. They’ve already got the division, but will be shooting to give Ortiz an excellent send off. This Boston team has a flare for the dramatic as does Ortiz himself. They’re also 46-32 at home and have been an excellent bet in September, going 18-6.
It seems the Sox have finally clicked. A loss to New York snapped an 11-game winning streak on Tuesday, but Boston’s still playing its best baseball of the year.
PROBABLE PITCHERS
For the time being, the pitching matchup is slated to be Aaron Sanchez and David Price to close out the 2016 regular season schedule.
Both pitchers figure to be instrumental in their respective team’s pushes in the playoffs as had a huge break out year in the rotation, going 14-2 with an AL leading 3.06 ERA and a 1.189 WHIP.
Sanchez is also first in the league in home run rate, giving up just 14 bombs in 185 innings of work.
The 24-year old right-hander has experience stifling the tough Boston offense early in the year, but lasted just 3.2 innings back on September 11, giving up six runs while allowing five hits and walking four. Boston’s ability to command the strike zone combined with power and speed makes this team very dangerous as they can score and manufacture runs many different ways.
Nevertheless, the hiccup in mid-September aside, Sanchez has outpitched Price this season despite the latter’s hefty paycheck.
Price has been a benefactor of the Boston’s powerful lineup. While posting a 4.04 ERA and 1.200 WHIP, both well north of his career averages, the veteran southpaw is still 17-9 on the year.
In 225 innings, the lefty has allowed 29 home runs, but has limited his walks to just 47 compared to 224 strikeouts, giving him a very strong 4.77 strikeout to walk ratio, its’ the hits that’ve been an issue.
It looked as though Price was turning his season around, but his last few starts haven’t been great. He did hold Baltimore—another powerful team like Toronto—to three runs in seven innings on September 2, but that was sandwiched between two poor outings against New York, allowing a combined 11 runs and 21 hits in 12.1 innings.
Overall, against Toronto this year, Price is 1-1 with a 2.66 ERA and 1.180 WHIP in 20.1 innings over three starts.
LIVE BETTING
Boston is averaging 5.9 runs per game in September and allowing three. Let that sink in for a moment. That’s pure dominance over a relatively long stretch of time.
The Boston offense has been well discussed. The new age killer Bs featuring Xander Bogarts, Jackie Bradley Jr, Mookie Betts and now Andrew Benintendi include four bats that offer multiple tools. Power is part of the equation, but this team can do so much more which is crucial against a pitcher like Sanchez.
Overall, you have a lineup with five starters hitting over .310, five bats with at least 20 home runs and three with at least 110 RBIs. That’s balance.
Of course, the Sox offensive prowess is well documented. The split in runs scored and allowed in September also speaks to the bullpen. Boston’s pen has finally come together and is deep with plenty of different looks from Craig Kimbrel in the ninth, to the splitter of Koji Uehara and the high octane arm of Joe Kelly.
Now, on the other side, the Toronto offense is coming together, too. Jose Bautista is back swinging like he’s capable of swining and that allows the rest of the order to fall into place. The issue, however, is re-injury to Devon Travis. The bullpen is also a mess. Roberto Osuna is struggling and Joaquin Benoit is out.
QUICK PICK
How does a win in Ortiz’s final regular season game not fit into the storyline of his career that includes as many big moments as anybody in the game?
Should Price get the start on Sunday, it would put him on pace to start Game 2 of the ALDS behind Rick Porcello. He’ll look to give the team a strong start and an added vote of confidence heading into the postseason where he’s been inconsistent over the years.
Look for both teams to be hacking early and often and neither pitcher should go too deep in the game with both teams saving the arms for the postseason—Toronto could be an exception to that if they somehow find themselves in need of a win to capture home field in the Wild Card game.
Nevertheless, look for low runs early, but both offenses could deliver against the bullpens in the mid to late innings. Count on Boston pulling out the dramatic win for Ortiz with Big Papi himself likely in the middle of everything.
MLB Odds: Red Sox 5, Blue Jays 4
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