The Blue Jays and Astros will play seven games over the next two weeks with the second of those seven and the second of a four game series in Houston on Tuesday.
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ODDS ANALYSIS
The Astros head into this series having lost 11-0 to the Tigers on Sunday. They’ll need a nice bounce back win to build confidence heading into Game 2 of the series.
The Blue Jays also suffered a blow on Sunday, losing to the Orioles in extra innings and losing the top spot in the AL East after taking it from Baltimore the game before. Still, Toronto took two of three in the series against its division rival.
Over their last 23 games, the Jays are 16-7, though the majority of those games were at home, but Toronto still has a .551 winning percentage on the road and a +47 run differential.
Houston’s 11-0 loss on Sunday capped off a three game sweep at the hands of Detroit and was the team’s second straight series loss after dropping two of three to the Yankees last week.
PROBABLE PITCHERS
He’s only 22-years old, but Lance McCullers is already the ace of this pitching staff which is quite impressive considering the staff includes last year’s AL Cy Young Award winner.
McCullers gets the start on Tuesday. In an injury shortened year, he bring a 6-4 record to the table with a 3.18 ERA and even though his FIP is inflated at 1.533 as a result of a 5.2 walks per nine inning ratio, his FIP is still just 2.76 as he does an excellent job keeping the ball in the yard. He’s also very adept at shutting down rallies as he’s able to get key strikeouts. He’s striking out 11.8 per nine.
With the late start to the year and the midseason promotion a year ago, McCullers now has just 35 big league starts. He’s posted a 3.21 ERA over that full season sample size, showing that he’s been able to make the adjustments and sustain success in The Show.
Over his last three starts, McCullers has been lights out. Allowing a single run per game. Since the All-Star break, McCullers has a 1.40 ERA. He’s also been much better at home than on the road. He’s 5-2 at home with a 2.28 ERA at Minute Maid Park.
Pitching for the Blue Jays in Tuesday’s contest is a pitcher about the exact opposite of McCullers: R.A. Dickey.
The 41-year old right-hander continues to give the Jays innings. He’s made 22 starts, throwing 131 1/3 innings. While the innings have been reliable, they haven’t exactly been dominating.
Dickey’s 7-12 with a 4.66 ERA and 1.340 WHIP here in 2016 and he’s giving up a league worst 26 home runs as he leaves knuckleballs up in the zone and the opposing batters aren’t missing them.
The struggle has been amplified for the knuckler in his last three starts. In that time, he’s allowed 17 runs in 14 2/3 innings, giving up 16 hits, nine walks and six home runs.
LIVE BETTING
Dickey hasn’t been able to go deep in games of late. That’s been his biggest strength. If he’s knocked out early again, this could be a long night for the Jays.
Toronto’s worked this deadline to stabilize the bullpen. The pen ranks in the bottom half of the sport with a 4.06 ERA.
Drew Storen proved to be a poor acquisition and was flipped to Seattle for Joaquin Benoit who has pitched relatively well since the change-of-scenery trade.
Even if Benoit proves to be a serviceable setup man to Roberto Osuna, the middle of this pen is still weak. Franklin Morales just gave up the game to the Orioles on Sunday in extra innings while Jesse Chavez and Brett Cecil have been little more than mediocre.
Houston, on the other hand, ranks third in baseball with a team ERA of 3.09 out of the pen. Even that number is a bit inflated given Ken Giles epic early struggles.
Giles has been as advertised since May 9, giving Houston a flamethrower late. Will Harris, meanwhile, has done very well since taking over as the closer, leaving Luke Gregerson in a much more suitable role for him.
QUICK PICK
Dickey is lost right now. He’s leaving the ball up and the opposition is hitting it. If his knuckler isn’t dancing he’s offering up little more than a batting practice fastball at best. Having given up six homers in his last 14 2/3 innings, it’s obvious the opposition isn’t missing it.
Houston is a powerful offense and they’ve got the advantage of a red hot starter on the hill and a familiar field. McCullers—and the Astros in general—thrive at home. Look for them to pull this one out against a strong Jays team.
Everything lines up on Tuesday for these teams to buck the trends, halting a hot Jays’ team and getting a struggling Astros’ squad back on track.
MLB Odds: Astros 7, Blue Jays 4
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