The American League’s strongest team will open the second half at home trying to maintain—or build on—its staggering 16.5 game lead in the AL West. The Astros will host the Minnesota Twins over the weekend, a team having a great season despite slipping a couple games back in the central prior to the break. With Cleveland charging hard, Minnesota needs to recapture some of its early season magic to hold on in what will be a contentious playoff race for those teams not from Houston in the AL.
This series will be contested from Friday, July 14, 2017 through Sunday, July 16, 2017 at Minute Maid Park in Houston.
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Pitching Matchups
Watch out, the AL’s best team is getting better as their starting rotation is starting to get healthy. Charlie Morton makes his second back from the DL when the season resumes on Friday.
The veteran right-hander was a mediocre winter signing, but he’s a more than serviceable mid-rotation arm. He looked sharp in his first start off the deal, holding the righty to one runs in six innings on July 7.
So far, Morton likes like an incredible shrewd signing for Houston. He’s 6-3 with a 3.82 ERA.
The Twins, however, appear to have the upper hand in the series opener based on the numbers. They’ll send Jose Berrios to the hill.
After struggling in his first taste of big league action last year, Berrios has been a great story for the surprising Twins. He’s 8-2 with a 3.53 ERA and 1.079 WHIP in 11 starts since being promoted back to the big club.
He’s done a much better job commanding the ball this year, but has hit a bit of a rough patch, allowing 13 runs—12 earned—over his last three starts. That’s 17.1 innings. In that time, his ERA jumped from 2.67 to its current 3.53. He’s also allowed five of his nine homers in that stretch. He’ll need to locate better down in the zone against a power laden Houston team.
Much like Friday’s game, Saturday will feature a veteran starter against a young, talented hurler. This team, it’s the Twins with the veteran on the hill.
Ervin Santana was an All-Star and for good reason. He notched his fourth quality start before the break. He did lose the game, but gave up just two runs in the nine frames.
Santana’s 10-6 with a 2.99 ERA and 1.080 WHIP in 120.1 innings this year. Those are impressive stats, but luck undoubtedly has played a key role. His BABIP is incredibly low, his strikeout to walk ratio is just 2.28 and he’s already allowed 18 homers. His FIP is 4.68.
The peripherals give Houston hope in this matchup which is good because Houston’s young starter for Saturday, Joe Musgrove, will need plenty of run support. He’s 4-7 with a 6.04 ERA. The team in 6-8 in his starts.
In addition, Musgrove has allowed 18 runs in his last three games. He’s lasted just 15 innings in those three games, allowing 23 hits, including six homers.
Look for Minnesota’s bats to come alive on Saturday with the Astros’ slugging away on Sunday.
Houston will get to face Kyle Gibson in the series finale who’s pitched to a 6.31 ERA and -1 rWAR in 16 starts. Just when it looked like he may be settling in, the veteran threw a seven-run, four-inning performance right before the All-Star game.
Houston counters Gibson with Mike Fiers. Fiers was a home run machine early, but has gotten that under wraps. He’s been good for this team with a 3.84 ERA in 17 starts.
Statistical Imbalance
The Astros offense is tops in baseball with 527 runs scored and a .855 team OPS. They’ve hit 148 homers and have a .355 OBP. That’s just hard to beat.
Minnesota’s offense hasn’t been bad. Miguel Sano has been a beast and Eddie Rosario has been a pleasant story as well, but with Joe Mauer on the DL, they’re the only two active players on the squad with an OPS+ of at least 100.
There are a few good players in Minnesota, but there’s also a reason they’re below average in the runs scored category.
Houston, on the other hand, has been raking game in and game out. The Astros offense has made up for rotational injuries and ineffectiveness with homers, average and tons of runs.
While Minnesota has just two active players with an OPS+ over 100, the Astros have eight with an OPS+ of at least 120.
In fact, the team has three different players that could all be in the debate for MVP of the league if the season ended today: George Springer, Jose Altuve and Carlos Correa. Springer has 27 homers and a .993 OPS, Altuve has a .417 OBP and 18 steals, Correa has 39 extra base hits and a team leading 65 RBIs. Three of the top five OPS players in the AL play for Houston.
What’s even more insane is that while there are three MVP candidates on this team, none of them are even this team’s MVP. That honor belongs to Marwin Gonzalez who plays all over the field, spelling All-Star players with little downgrade in production. The super-sub plays great defense everywhere and is batting .308 with a .967 OPS and 16 bombs.
Betting Trends
This will be the second series of the year before the Twins and the Astros, Houston swept the Twinkies in Minnesota, outscoring them 40-16 in a three-game set. Houston is 8-2 against Minnesota since the start of 2016.
While the Twins remain a couple games over-.500, the team is just 19-20 since the start of June. In that same time, Houston has gone 22-13.
Home field also benefits the Astros in this series, though Houston has been a better road team on the year. Still they’re 27-18 at home. Minnesota, however, is tough on the road, going 25-15.
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