The Cleveland Indians enter this series having won 29 of their last 31 games. The Minnesota Twins have played no part in that historic run to this point, the Tribe have still won 10 of 16 meetings in the season series. More telling than that, however, is the +34 run differential for the Indians in those 16 games. Cleveland will look to keep the good times rolling while Twins will try and lock down the AL Wild Card without having to rely on their final series against the Tigers.
This series will be contested from Tuesday, September 26, 2017 through Thursday, September 28, 2017 at Progressive Field in Cleveland.
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Pitching Matchups
The series opener will feature an interesting pitching matchup with Bartolo Colon and Josh Tomlin on the mound.
Both Colon and Tomlin have made their livings pounding the strike zone. This game should move fast through the early innings. Both Colon and Tomlin bank on the opposition putting the ball in play. Colon has a 1.7 walk per nine inning ratio since joining the Twins and a 5.2 strikeout per nine ratio. Tomlin, meanwhile, has a walk rate of one and strikeout rate of 6.8.
While style is similar, that’s where the similarity ends for now. These two hurlers are going in opposite directions.
Colon is 4-6 with a 5.33 ERA and 1.486 WHIP in 13 starts with Minnesota. The 44-year old seemed to regain his form a bit early after being claimed from the Braves, but he’s really struggled in September. Colon is 0-4 with a 9.17 ERA in four September starts. In his last start, he allowed six runs in just 3.1 innings against the Yankees.
As for Tomlin, the right-hander is 9-9 with a 4.98 ERA, but established himself in big games last year. He’s also turned the corner in his last eight starts, going 5-0 with a 2.74 ERA.
The series continues Wednesday with two young, talented—but erratic—arms. The Twins will throw Adelberto Mejia against the Indians’ Danny Salazar.
Mejia’s start was almost skipped. The southpaw hasn’t made it through five innings since July. Some of that is due to injury and some to ineffectiveness. He’s made just two starts since coming off the DL. His pitch count will be limited again.
As for Salazar, the righty has been shuttled between the bullpen and the rotation. Right now, Cleveland is going with a six-man rotation. Salazar may be an odd-man out for the postseason rotation, but this matchup favors him. He’s 2-0 with two runs allowed and 17 strikeouts in 13 innings against Minnesota this year. He’s also coming off a strong start against the Angels in his last outing.
The series wraps up on Thursday with the best matchup of the bunch. The Twins are bumping up Ervin Santana a day to make the start to allow him to line up for the AL Wild Card game. There’s no doubt Santana is the team’s ace. He’s 16-8 with a 3.36 ERA and five complete games. He’s thrown 206.1 innings and has a 1.134 WHIP. His FIP is up at 4.50 due to his lower than average strikeout rate.
The FIP suggests he’s overachieved on his ERA, but Santana keeps on chugging along. Even in September, his ERA is 3.86 in five starts.
To counter Santana, the Indians have Carlos Carrasco lined up to make the start on Thursday.
Carrasco is a top of the rotation arm with a 17-6 record, 3.43 ERA and 1.106 WHIP. According to record and ERA, Carrasco and Santana are neck-and-neck, but the peripherals are much friendlier to Carrasco who is less likely to walk someone and more likely to get the big strikeout if there’s a rally brewing.
Offensive Comparison
Overall, the Twins and the Indians are separated by a single run scored over the course of their respective 156 games.
Minnesota has plated the extra run, but the Indians have the superior team OPS at .789 to the Twins’ .768.
How does Minnesota’s offense keep chugging along? They do it by getting production from a different player every day. This is not a lineup of All-Stars, but it is one of generally good players.
More recently, Eduardo Escobar, Brian Dozier and Eddie Rosario have provided the power for Minnesota. Byron Buxton and Jorge Polanco have been good all-around players throughout September. Everyone is playing their role and covering for Miguel Sano on the DL. Joe Mauer has a .367 average on the month and he’s driven in 18 runs. His home run power isn’t there, but he’s notched eight doubles in the process.
The Twins are a fun story, but given the Indians’ roll, it’s not a surprise, they’ve put up some gaudy offensive numbers in September. They’ve got a .863 OPS as a team and have scored 138 runs. Minnesota, however, has plated 144 though their .813 OPS isn’t as impressive. When given the chance, the Twins can score.
Back to the Tribe, Cleveland has been led this month by Jose Ramirez and Francisco Lindor. Ramirez is batting .431 with nine homers and 19 RBIs this month. He has a .431/.467/1.000 slash line. Lindor is slashing .312/.402/.688 with eight homers and 21 RBIs. Those 21 ribbies tie him with Edwin Encarnaion for the team lead in the month.
Bullpen Contrast
These two bullpens could not be any more different.
Matt Belisle, Taylor Rogers and Alan Busenitz—among others—have stepped up their games in September. That specific trio has allowed two runs in the month in 20.1 combined frames. They’re getting the job done, but the pen misses Brandon Kintzler Without him, Minnesota doesn’t have a go to guy in the closer’s role.
Overall, the Twins’ bullpen has been far from great. They have a cumulative ERA of 4.68 and that’s inclusive of Kintzler’s numbers. The Indians, on the other hand, lead baseball with a 3.33 bullpen ERA.
The pen in Cleveland is stacked. Cody Allen, Andrew Miller, Nick Doody, Dan Otero, Bryan Shaw and the list goes on.
Andrew Miller, of course, is the lynch pin. With Allen in the ninth innings, Miller gives Terry Francona flexibility. He can get bit outs no matter when the game is on the line. He’s just coming back from the DL so he’s not completely back to himself, yet. He hasn’t allowed a run in his five outings since his return, but he has walked four.
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