The Kansas City Royals used a 13-2 shellacking of the Tigers to stay within two and a half games of the Wild Card in the AL. With the Royals in the hunt and the Minnesota Twins leading the back for the second Wild Card spot, this series is huge. While the Twins would remain in the hunt even after a sweep, a sweep—or even series loss—by the Royals could be the final nail in the coffin of K.C.’s season.
This series will be contested from Thursday, September 7, 2017 through Sunday, September 10, 2017 at Kauffman Stadium in Kansas City.
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Pitching Matchups
If you look purely at the stat line, it looks like the Twins will give the Royals a pass in the series opener. Kyle Gibson is the starter for the Twinkies. Don’t let his 5.33 ERA and 1.613 WHIP fool you.
Gibson has thrown the ball better recently. He tossed six scoreless innings against this same Royals team in his last outing. That improved the right-hander’s numbers to 6-4 with a 3.53 ERA in his career against the Royals.
Countering Gibson on Thursday will be newly obtained Royal Sam Gaviglio. Before being picked up by K.C., Gaviglio was part of the collection of Triple-A starter the Mariners used to stay a float with all the injures.
Gaviglio is not a top prospect and he didn’t have a great year with Seattle, but it wasn’t all bad. In 12 games, he was 3-5 with 4.62 ERA. Those numbers aren’t great, but they’re better than Gibson’s.
Friday’s game is a rematch of Sunday’s Ervin Santana vs. Ian Kennedy showdown.
On Friday, neither starter factored into the decision. Santana was worse than normal, throwing 6.2 innings and allowing four runs while Kennedy threw well—for him—with two runs allowed in 5.2 innings.
Kennedy’s somewhat respectable last start aside, the right-hander has been a disaster for the Royals. He’s an innings eater and, in this context, it’s a bad thing. Yes, he thrown a lot of innings, but very few have been quality in 2017. He’s 4-10 with a 5.37 ERA and even more inflated 5.57 FIP.
On the flip side, Santana was an All-Star. He’s 14-7 with a 3.35 ERA and has already thrown five complete games and three shutouts. The Royals, however, have been an Achilles Heel. After a good showing on Opening Day, he’s faced his former team two more times, allowing 11 runs—nine earned—in 12 innings.
As we move to the second half of the series, we get a battle of youngsters in Jose Berrios and Jakob Junis and who veterans in Bartolo Colon and Jason Vargas.
Berrios’ line in his last game is worse than he actually pitched. His inability to locate the breaking ball eventually did him in. He gave up five runs in five innings. Before that, it was a seven-inning shutout, but it was against the White Sox. Berrios has two seven-inning shutouts in his last four games, but he’s also allowed 10 runs in 10.1 innings combined in the other two starts.
Junis has been an unsung hero for the Royals. Ned Yost and the Royals have been doing all they can to pull the right strings and get this team back to the postseason before they disband in Free Agency. Giving Junis a chance is a significant part of that. His ERA of 4.48 is mediocre, but he’s 7-2 and gives his team a chance to win.
A chance to win hasn’t come easily for Jason Vargas since the All-Star break. It’s truly been a tail of two pitchers for Vargas. In the first half, the southpaw was 12-3 with a 2.62 ERA. He’s 2-7 with a 7.85 ERA since that time.
Vargas goes against Big Sexy. Colon looked finished with the Braves, but the 44-year old has had a resurgence in Minnesota. He’s 4-3 with a 3.94 ERA.
Who's Hot?
Miguel Sano remains on the DL, but that hasn’t stopped the Twins from having a nice surge through the end of August and into September. The reasons for that are multiple, but Byron Buxton is part of the answer.
The Twins’ centerfield and one-time best prospect in baseball may have finally found something. A talented athlete, Buxton already brought value with his glove and his bat is coming around, too. He was terrible in the start of the year, but his numbers have rebounded and he’s red hot. In his last 28 games, he’s posted a .340/.375/.670 slash line and has hit eight homers.
Buxton’s home run barrage isn’t an isolated incident. Brian Dozier, Eddie Rosario and Jorge Polanco have combined for 32 homers in the last 29 days.
The Royals bullpen has come together in the last month. Kelvim Herrera has eight games and a 1.23 ERA since the early part of August. Scott Alexander and Ryan Buchter have combined for 25 games in the last 30 days while allowing four runs in 23.1 innings.
Moving to the offensive side of things, Lorenzo Cain is getting hot headed into free agency. That can never hurt. He’s hitting .347 in his last 27 games.
Melky Cabrera, Alcides Escober, Eric Hosmer and even Melky Cabrera are all hitting over .300 in the last 30-days. Great contact hitting with just enough power was the offensive story of the Royals World Series teams.
Who's Not?
The Twins are winning without their best player and they’re doing that with good production up-and-down the lineup.
Minnesota hasn’t gotten much from Robbie Grossman recently; the catching situation is also a bit of a challenge. In the last 30 days, Jason Castro is hitting .222. Chris Gimenez is batting .220 in the same time.
Another down for the Twins in the bullpen. There have been some good performances in the pen, but Matt Belisle has already blown a save. Minnesota is 5-for-10 in save situations in the last 30 days. Boy does this team miss Brandon Kintzler.
The Royals miss when Whit Merrifield was productive. The second baseman was the best player on the team in stretching, but he’s a .270 OBP and a team leading 23 strikes in his last 27 games. Brandon Moss and Alex Gordon are also not hitting well. For Gordon, this problem has been all year.
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