Heading into the series, these AL Central rivals are separated by half a game, both sitting right around .500 despite low expectations for these supposed rebuilding franchises. Both of these teams, however, are coming off series losses and each will be anxious to reverse course and keep proving their doubters wrong, but in this series only one will be able to prove successful in that task.
This series will be contested from Tuesday, May 9, 2017 through Thursday, May 11, 2017 at Guaranteed Rate Field in Chicago.
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Pitching Matchups
The only matchup officially announced at the time of writing is Tuesday’s showdown between Hector Santiago of the Twins and Mike Pelfrey of the White Sox.
In this matchup, the Twinkies have the quality and quantity advantage. Santiago is having a very good season so far and has been overshadowed by Ervin Santana. Santiago is 3-1 with a 2.78 ERA and 1.150 WHIP in his 35.2 innings of work.
Santiago hasn’t allowed more than three runs in any start this year and has four quality starts in six attempts, missing out on two other QS due to innings. He pitched just five innings, giving up one run in his season debut despite a relatively low 88 pitches, but took 104 pitches to go five in his other quality start miss.
He’s already had one start against Chicago this year, going seven shutout innings in the game, striking out six, walking none and allowing six hits.
In six career starts against the Sox, he’s 4-1 with a 1.40 ERA and 0.879 WHIP, striking out 39 in 38.2 innings pitched.
Pelfrey, on the other hand, has allowed 10 runs in 14.1 innings spread over three starts this year. He’s made into through five innings just once in those three chances and still allowed at least three runs in each start. Pelfrey is a former Twin and really struggled in his time in Minnesota. He’s also found it quite a struggling in his starts against them over his career. He’s had a couple good seasons, but for the most part is a journeyman who at this stage of his career, provides innings, but little quality.
In the final two games of this series, the ChiSox will turn to southpaw Derek Holland and righty Miguel Gonzalez. Holland has been very, very good in his six starts, giving up two runs or fewer in each of them and going 3-2 with a 2.02 ERA overall. Miggy, meanwhile, has been good in all but one of his starts.
Gonzalez had a 2.00 ERA through his first four starts and then allowed seven runs—six earned—in six innings, allowing 14 hits in an April 30 start against Detroit. He rebounded, however, to hold the Orioles to two runs in 6.2 innings in a loss.
Overall, neither Gonzalez nor Holland classify as aces, but both have shown they are more than capable of put up quality innings and allow their team a chance to get the win.
That could be more than we can realistically expect from the Twins’ starters. Ervin Santana pitched on Sunday so he won’t get the nod. The only other known option for the Twins is Phil Hughes who is 4-1 and does figure to get a start, though his ERA on the year is higher than that of both Holland and Gonzalez. He’s been pretty good at limited free passes, but he’s given up some hard hits in the process, including five homers. Hughes should get Wednesday’s start and will try and build off a 2.88 career ERA against the White Sox.
Thursday’s starter for the Twins, based on last time around, should be Nick Tepesch. He’s been a swing man, Four-A type pitcher in his career. He was serviceable in that role for the Rangers in a couple years, but hasn’t just two starts in the majors since 2014, giving up 12 runs in 5.2 innings over those two starts. Before a disastrous 1.2 inning start this year, he pitched to a 2.00 ERA in 18 innings at Triple-A Rochester.
Names to Remember
Byron Buxton has been written off after an absolutely horrendous start to the season. As recently as April 20, he was batting .082 with just four hits all season and 24 strikeouts.
Buxton had a monstrous September last year leading to hope that the talented former-top-prospect had finally harnessed the tools that had scouts drooling at the mouth for years. He began the year hitting in the No. 3 spot as a result, but things went really wrong, really fast. He was overmatched and it began to spiral completely out of control. He was striking himself out before even coming to the plate.
Don’t look now, but he’s starting to turn things around again. Over his last eight games, the centerfielder is 7-for-25 which translates to a .280 average and while he’s still striking out, the rate has dropped to a much more manageable level.
He’s no longer an automatic out at the bottom of the order and should be watched as he can cause some havoc with his skill set as his confidence starts to rebuild.
Keep tabs on Kennys Vargas as well. He’s got seven RBIs already in the month of May and a couple of homers.
As for the Sox, Jose Abreu’s bat is heating up, too. He’s hitting .286 overall with five homers, but three of those have come in the month of May where he’s 9-for-30.
Fielding Factors
When you look at teams head-to-head, it’s easy to focus on pitching matchups, offensive production and even the bullpens.
With that in mind, the Twins have outscored the White Sox by 11 runs this year in one less game and the Sox’s bullpen is much deeper than Minnesota’s. Chicago’s pen ranks No. 2 in the league with a 2.10 ERA while Minnesota’s ERA is 4.90.
All of that is nice, but one forgot angle is defense. The Twins have been a very accurate defensive team, making just 10 errors all season, less than half the number the Sox have committed.
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