Perhaps a preview of the AL Wild Card game, the Minnesota Twins will head to the Bronx for a best-of-three against the New York Yankees. Both teams need to play well in the series so this could serve as a nice preview to the Wild Card game. It will also allow both teams to adequately scout the other in preparation for that one-and-done affair, assuming—of course—that the Twins make it. With October on the line, this series carries a lot of wait as the regular season winds down.
This series will be contested from Monday, September 18, 2017 through Wednesday, September 20, 2017 at Yankee Stadium in New York. Monday's clash is being shown live on MLB Network for those outside the local markets while the games on Tuesday and Wednesday can be seen on ESPN.
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Pitching Matchups
It seems appropriate that Jaime Garcia gets the start for the Yankees, kicking off the series. The veteran southpaw was ever-so-briefly a Twin before Minnesota opted to about-face and sell at the deadline. He made one start in a Twins’ uniform, got a win and got traded.
Since being in New York, he’s been less-than-impressive. In six starts, he’s yet to record a win, going 0-2 with a 4.60 ERA.
On the other side, the Twins kick off the series with their ace: Ervin Santana. The right-hander is having a career year, but much of his numbers are built on a strong first half. That said, he did pitch six scoreless in his last start. That’s the good news. The bad news is hit 5.78 career ERA against the Yankees. He’s 6-9 against them, too, in a non-insignificant 19 appearances.
This will be Santana’s first start against New York this year and he has been a different pitcher. He’s 15-7 with a 3.35 ERA and 1.131 WHIP in 30 starts. He’s also led the AL in complete games and shutouts.
As for Garcia, we’ve already noted his disappointing numbers with the Yankees, but his combined stats show a mid-to-back of the rotation start. He’s 5-9 with a 4.35 ERA. While he did have a 2.43 ERA in 2015, the mark was 4.67 last year.
As the series progresses, the Twins will continue to throw their top arms. Jose Berrios gets the start in Game 2.
Berrios has stumbled a bit lately and he’s also been much better at home than on the road. Both of those facts are a concern, particularly with him pitching to a 5.14 ERA away from Target Field. He is coming off a good one-run outing against the Twins, but even in that game he failed to go six innings and walked four as his command can get away from him.
The young right-hander likely won’t go too deep in the game, but the Yankees’ starter, C.C. Sabathia, may not either. He went just 4.1 innings in his last start, getting pulled so he wouldn’t face Evan Longoria for a third time. He’s not going to go more than three-times through an order any more.
While the length of his starters may be in question, he’s still a good bet to give quality innings while on the mound. He’s pitched to a 3.14 ERA since coming off the DL.
The series will wrap up on Wednesday with yet another interesting matchup: Bartolo Colon against Masahiro Tanaka.
Big Sexy is a former Yankee. New York is the team that gave him a chance for his latest recurrence which then sent him to the A’s, Mets, Braves and now the Twins. Just when it looked like Colon’s career was finally over in Atlanta, the Twins added him in desperate need of starting pitching. He’s been better than he was with the Braves though his 4-5 record and 4.80 ERA don’t make him much more than a fifth starter.
Colon’s also struggled in his last three starts, another cause for concern. Couple that with a 5.81 career ERA against the Yankees in 110 innings and the Bronx Bombers could have a good offensive night.
Given the matchup, they’ll just need Tanaka to have a good outing. The right-hander has had a very inconsistent season. He’s 12-11 with a 4.73 ERA overall. That ERA is only marginally better than the one Colon has posted with Minnesota.
Fortunately for the Yankees, this series in New York. Tanaka is 8-5 with a 3.48 ERA at home. He’s also 5-3 with a 3.53 ERA in the second half.
Offensive Comparison
There’s only one team with more runs than the Yankees and that’s the Houston Astros. While Minnesota is a top-10 offense in baseball per runs scored, they’re more than 60-runs behind the Bronx Bombers and have a team OPS 20-points lower.
In addition, the Yankees have slammed way more homers than the Twins behind Aaron Judge and, more recently, Gary Sanchez.
The offensive gap between these two teams has narrowed more recently. Minnesota was the better offensive team in August, outscoring every other AL team in the month. Since the start of September, the Yankees’ offense has bounced back in a big way and have outscored the Twins though Minnesota keeps rolling.
Minnesota’s offense keeps rolling without Miguel Sano. The Twins are getting big hits from different players every night. Joe Maurer is hitting over .300, Brian Dozier’s home run bat is back, and Eddie Rosario is having a break out season.
For New York, Judge’s bounce-back in September is a huge part for the Yankees’ offensive resurgence. He’s hitting just .240 in the month, but with 16 walks, he’s posted a .418 OBP. He’s also slammed six homers and three doubles in 15 games. Todd Frazier and Didi Gregorius each have five homers in the month, too. Meanwhile, Gary Sanchez is hitting .347 for the month and Chase Headley is a .346. Really, Greg Bird and, to a lesser extent, Starling Castro are the only ones scuffling.
Bullpen Breakdown
While the Yankees added arms like David Robertson and Tommy Kahnle at the deadline, the Twins sent Brandon Kintzler packing.
There’s no doubt the Twins would love to have Kintzler back. Now, they have Matt Belisle getting most of the saves. His numbers—and the numbers of most of the other key relievers like Tyler Duffey, Ryan Pressly and Taylor Rogers—don’t inspire much confidence.
The Yankees’ bullpen wasn’t living up to expectations in August, but since the start of September, the back end has solidified. Dellin Betances is still working through some demons, but Kahnle, Robertson, Adam Warren and Aroldis Chapman have been lights out.
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