At this time last year, every expert was predicting the Nationals to win the NL East in a landslide, approaching 100 wins. Shows you how good those prognosticators are. The Nats have been a trendy World Series pick since 2012, which coincided with the arrival of Bryce Harper and Stephen Strasburg. But the excitement is tempered a bit following an 83-win campaign last season.
WASHINGTON NATIONALS
+1226 to win 2016 World Series
+600 to win NL Pennant
The disaster that was the 2015 Washington Nationals is best left to the dustbin of history. The consensus pick to win the World Series, the Nats crashed in August and were essentially eliminated by the second week of September.
The lingering image of their season was new closer Jonathan Papelbon with his hands around the neck of soon-to-be-named MVP Harper in the season’s waning days.
Based on their offseason moves, Washington’s management appeared to have chalked the whole mess up to Matt Williams’ ineffective managing. Williams’ firing, and the hiring of Dusty Baker to replace him, was the team’s signature move of the winter.
Their player pursuits were mostly fruitless, as they fell short in attempts to acquire Brandon Phillips, Ben Zobrist, Darren O’Day and Jason Heyward, before finally scoring with a three-year deal for Daniel Murphy. Add it all up, and the Nats appear to be banking on the notion that 2015 was more or less an aberration and a failure of management, and that their talent-laden roster, run by a new skipper, can fulfill its lofty promise – one year later.
There is hope in D.C., however. Baker gets to pencil in Harper on his lineup card everyday and that’s not bad. Harper finally had the breakout season most expected going .330/.460/.649 with 42 homers, 99 RBIs and 118 runs scored to unanimously win the NL MVP.
Harper should be elite once again, but none of the projection systems see him improving on his 2015 numbers. With Harper expected to regress towards the mean, the club will need improved production from others.
Anthony Rendon emerged as one of the top young hitters in the game during a stellar 2014 season, but injuries plagued him throughout a disappointing 2015. This year, presumably healthy again, he returns to third base.
Veteran Ryan Zimmerman also needs to stay healthy after missing 168 games the past two seasons and seeing his OPS decline in 2015 for the third straight year.
The Nats gave the outfield a much-needed upgrade by adding Ben Revere, a .295 career hitter who played well in a pennant race for the Blue Jays last season.
A year ago we were talking about the Nationals possibly having the best rotation in history. Things didn’t quite work out that way, though starters did compile a 3.70 ERA.
Max Scherzer was awesome. He fanned 279 batters in 228.2 innings, posted a 2.79 ERA and tossed two no-hitters. Stephen Strasburg battled injuries, but finished strong, raising hope of better things to come.
Compared to the hype and hysteria of a year ago, the Nats will be flying under the radar at the start of 2016, which is exactly what they need. They still have largely the same talented roster that most pundits envisioned winning the World Series in 2015 – headed by a once-in-a-generation hitter in Harper – and the 1-2 punch of Scherzer and Strasburg is the envy of nearly every team in baseball.
With some better luck on the injury front, steps forward from young players and the expected infusion of talent from prospects, the Nationals should be back in the hunt for a division title, and possibly more.
Key Additions: 2B Daniel Murphy, OF Ben Revere.
Key Losses: CL Drew Storen, SS Ian Desmond, SP Jordan Zimmerman, OF Denard Span.
The Nationals didn’t get appreciably better in the offseason, as their most notable acquisition was a new manager. So the question is: can this slightly altered Washington team overtake the NL East favorite Mets, who rode a young, elite pitching staff to the World Series last season? And the answer is: probably not.
Prediction: 91-71
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