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With Mike Trout back off the DL, the Los Angeles Angels are set for their home-and-home series against the Washington Nationals, including the second game in Los Angeles on Wednesday. These two teams do not have a whole lot of head-to-head history, but the Angels represent a surprisingly tough competition for the Nationals.
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ODDS ANALYSIS
The Angels were playing very solid baseball without Trout through June, going 14-14. They were staying afloat in the AL Wildcard picture despite having the game’s best player on the shelf.
Since the calendar flipped to July, however, Los Angeles has taken a tumble, losing seven of ten. Over the team’s last 13 games, they’ve managed just four wins.
The return of Trout has yet to yield a win going into Sunday, but the Angels hope he can help fortify an offense that was getting by on smoke and mirrors.
Andrelton Simmons is having a good year at the plate and Yunel Escobar, Cameron Maybin and Kole Calhoun are all suitable role players, but Albert Pujols continues to regress.
Trout helps legitimize the order top to bottom. Even in just 49 games, he’s still leading the team in homers with 16 and his 1.186 OPS had him on pace for his best season of his young, impressive career.
Even with Trout, however, the Angels are at an offensive disadvantage. Washington has outscored everyone other than the record setting Astros.
The Nationals have a .814 team OPS and 501 runs scored. That’s 120 more runs than the Angels.
Washington has also done most of this without several key players like Jayson Werth, Adam Eaton and Trea Turner.
It doesn’t seem to matter, however, as Ryan Zimmerman, Bryce Harper, Daniel Murphy and Anthony Rendon have all been amongst the best hitters in the game, each ranking in the top-10 in OPS. Each are also sporting an average of .315 or better and at least 60 RBIs.
PROBABLE PITCHERS
After an All-Star snub, Gio Gonzalez went out on Friday and turned in his best start of the year, going 8.1 innings of shutout ball against a solid Reds’ offense.
Gonzo will be on the hill for his second post-All-Star break start on Wednesday, bringing an 8-4 record and 2.66 ERA to the mound with him. While Gonzalez has given up more than his share of walks to this point in the year, walking 51 in 121.2 innings, he’s been excellent at getting out of jams.
Overall, the peripherals indicate that Gonzalez may be pitching a bit over his skis right now. His FIP is 4.06 and his strikeout to walk ratio is only 2.27.
Still, despite that, he’s gotten the job done all season and with his best start his last, there’s no reason to expect the regression to start now.
Gonzalez is also going against an Angels team he’s had a good deal of success against in the past. The 31-year old southpaw was an Athletic earlier in his career, giving him a lot of early matchups against Los Angeles. In 11 starts, he’s 7-2 with a 2.62 ERA and 1.102 WHIP. Trout is just 1-for-11 against him though Andrelton Simmons and Ben Revere have both had some success.
On the other side, the Angels will counter Gonzalez with a veteran of their own: Ricky Nolasco.
Nolasco also did well in his first start of the second-half, holding the Rays to a single run in seven innings.
The 34-year old right-hander is 4-10 with a 4.82 ERA and 1.348 WHIP in 108.1 innings of work. Like Gonzalez, his numbers are better than the peripherals suggest. He’s allowing 2.2 homers per nine innings and has a 5.52 FIP.
Nolasco has done well historically against the Nationals. In 23 games, including 21 starts, he has a 3.65 ERA.
Of the Nationals’ current batch of hitters, Bryce Harper has had a good bit of success, going 11-for-23 and belting two homers.
Ryan Zimmerman and Stephen Drew each have hit three career homers against Nolasco.
LIVE BETTING
With a clear advantage on the mound to start the game and in the batter’s box throughout, the Nationals should win this in a landslide, even on the road, but the one thing that could get in their way is their bullpen.
No team in the sport has had a worse ERA from the bullpen than the Nationals. They’re lost and until they find a couple arms to solidify the back end, they’re vulnerable in a close game late.
That all said, they’ve made series strides in that department with the acquisition of Ryan Madson and Sean Doolittle. Both have closer experience and are putting together solid seasons, but it’s still telling that the duo have been in setup roles this year with Santiago Casilla getting most of the save opportunities.
For the Angels, the goal is simple: keep the game close and have a chance at the end.
The Angels bullpen itself is a hodge podge of arms, but Bud Norris, David Hernandez, Blake Parker and others have stepped up while most of the Nationals’ arms have faltered.
QUICK PICK
While the dismal Nationals’ bullpen does give the Angels a chance, particularly with them getting the last at bat of the game, the rest of the team is so much better, the Nationals should still walk away with the victory. On top of that, the improvements made this weekend help solidify the pen.
Look for Gonzalez to go deep in the game and hand the pen a sizeable enough lead for them to close the door. Trout also looked a bit rusty in his first couple games back so until he’s 100-percent, the offense remains behind the eight-ball.
MLB Odds: Nationals 6, Angels 3
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