
We meet again. The Marlins and Nationals are well acquainted, having played 10 times already ahead of the weekend series, including four games within a 45-hour span last weekend in Washington. The clubs split the first 10 games with Miami starter Jose Fernandez claiming a pair of victories.
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ODDS ANALYSIS
Through the first two months of the season, the NL East hasn’t been as bad as many anticipated before the year began. The pundits were right about one thing, though. The Nationals are at the top of division and don’t appear to be going anywhere. The play of Philadelphia and Miami has been surprising, making the division one of the toughest in baseball with four of the five teams over .500 at the 40-game mark.
In their attempt to remain at the top of the grouping, the Nationals will face an old nemesis in Jose Fernandez. The flame-throwing right-hander is hard to beat, but things get more difficult when Fernandez takes the bump at Marlins Park, where 74 percent of his career victories have come. Fernandez is 20-1 in 30 career home starts with a 1.65 ERA. He’s already beaten the Nats twice this year and is 5-0 in eight career starts against them.
PROBABLE PITCHERS
The Nats are likely to send Joe Ross (3-3, 2.63 ERA) to the hill on Saturday, despite his recent struggles. Ross surrendered three earned runs on seven hits over 5.2 innings in Sunday’s loss to the Marlins for his third straight defeat. Over those games, the righty has allowed 20 hits and 10 earned in 18.1 frames with his ERA ballooning from 0.79 to 2.63.
Ross lasted only two innings in his first outing with Miami, departing with a blister after retiring six of the eight batters he faced. The injury forced him to miss a start. He owns a 2.20 ERA over his previous three starts and four appearances against the fish.
Jose Fernandez (5-2, 3.21 ERA) tossed a gem at the Nationals on Sunday, giving up just one run on four hits with 11 strikeouts in a 5-1 win. The run allowed was hardly his fault when two outfielders collided chasing a Ryan Zimmerman fly ball which turned into an inside-the-park home run. He’s gone seven innings allowing four hits with 11 punchouts in each of his last two starts with a 0.64 ERA to earn NL Player of the Week.
Fernandez has been dominant in two starts against the Nats this year, giving up a run in each with seven hits total and 20 strikeouts over 13 innings. He won both times. Fernandez is 5-0 and has 63 strikeouts in 49.2 innings over eight career starts against Washington.
LIVE BETTING
Nationals outfielder Bryce Harper has feasted on Marlins pitching so far this season. In nine games, the reigning NL MVP has four homers and 11 RBIs, highs in both categories against any opponent. He’s also walked 10 times.
However, that kind of success is missing against Fernandez. Harper has three singles in 13 career at-bats against the Marlins’ ace, but he has worked six walks off him and owns a .450 on-base percentage.
QUICK PICK
Fernandez is an absolute stud and he’s owned the Nationals during his brief career. Even worse for Washington, the guy is nearly unbeatable at home. Fernandez has won 20 of his 21 decisions at Marlins Park and is 2-0 against the Nats this year with a pair of electric outings. Washington is in a tailspin offensively, which bodes well for Fernandez and the Marlins. The Nats extended their losing skid to three games with a shutout at New York on Tuesday and scored a total of two runs in those games. It won’t get any easier facing Fernandez.
MLB Odds: Miami 4, Washington 2
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