The suddenly surging New York Mets look to tighten things up in the NL East before the All-Star break. The Mets fell six games behind Washington after getting swept in a three-game set just over a week ago. But New York responded by winning six of its next seven games while the Nats struggled against non-contenders.
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ODDS ANALYSIS
The Mets have changed a lot in the week since they were swept by the Nationals in D.C. But the Nats hope the result remains the same when the NL East leaders tangle in third of a four-game set heading into the All-Star break. The Nationals remain four games ahead of the Metropolitans by virtue of their 7-4 win over Milwaukee on Wednesday, but the Mets have closed the gap by responding to the three straight losses with a four-game sweep of the Cubs and then taking two of three from Marlins.
New York outscored Chicago and Miami 46-24 in the seven games – a stunning turnaround for a team that scored just 47 runs in 15 games from June 14 through June 29. The Nats have taken six of the first nine in the season series with the Mets, outscoring them 44-23 while going up 2.42 units on the moneyline.
PROBABLE PITCHERS
Max Scherzer (9-6, 3.21 ERA) took a tough-luck loss his last time out, throwing six innings of one-run ball in a 1-0 loss to the Brewers. A fifth-inning fastball to Martin Maldonado caught a little too much of the plate and wound up in the seats for the game’s only run. Scherzer was otherwise dominant, throwing 73 of 114 pitches for strikes and generating a whopping 21 swinging strikes. But the long-ball has been Scherzer’s bugaboo all season with a NL-high 21 allowed.
Scherzer owns a 2.03 ERA in 10 career outings against the Mets and has allowed New York only two runs in 13.2 innings this season. He blanked the Mets with 10 strikeouts over 7.1 innings in a 4-2 win on June 29. He surrendered just three hits and fanned 10 in 6.1 innings at Citi Field on May 17, however two of the hits were solo home runs and the Mets posted a 2-0 victory.
While the Mets have not named a starter for Saturday, the logical choice is Logan Verrett (3-5, 4.01 ERA). Matt Harvey was due to pitch but he landed on the disabled list Wednesday with shoulder discomfort. Seth Lugo was recalled from the minors in a corresponding move, but it looks like Verrett will get the nod.
Verrett has made five starts this season among his 23 appearances and is no stranger to the spot start. He took the hill in place of Stephen Matz just over a week ago and pitched well in a 4-2 loss to the Nats in Washington, giving up four hits and two runs in five innings. Ironically, he was matched up with Scherzer in that game. Verrett also faced the Nats in three consecutive games out of the pen in late May, giving up three hits with three walks and three strikeouts in 3.2 scoreless innings.
LIVE BETTING
People who know Daniel Murphy well say he took it personally when the Mets made it clear they didn’t what him back, first pursuing Ben Zobrist as a free agent and then quickly trading for Neil Walker when Zobrist signed with the Cubs. Murphy wasn’t offering even a hint of satisfaction in sticking it to his old club. But Scherzer said what everyone was thinking. “It’s just obvious he wants to beat them up,” the Nats ace said.
Not many do in such a spectacular manner. Murphy has tormented the Mets since signing a three-year, $37.5 million contract with Washington during the offseason. He is hitting .429 with four homers and 11 RBIs in 35 at-bats against his former employer. He hit two homers against the Mets on June 29 to tie his career-high of 14, to go with 56 RBIs and a league-leading .345 batting average.
QUICK PICK
Matt Harvey hasn’t pitched like the guy we grew accustomed to seeing. He had his problems this season but appeared to be getting back on track before landing on the disabled list with a shoulder ailment. That leaves Saturday’s rotation spot likely in the hands of Verrett, who, let’s face it, isn’t Harvey.
And while the Mets have suddenly found an offense, they get their nemesis Scherzer once again, just 10 days removed from him tossing 7.1 scoreless at them in a win in D.C. Scherzer owns a 2.03 ERA and 0.84 WHIP with 85 strikeouts against the Mets across 62 lifetime innings. With numbers like that it’s hard to believe he lost three games. In his final start at Citi Field last season, Scherzer tossed a no-no and if he stays away from serving up the long ball, he should be in line for another victory.
MLB Odds: Washington 4, New York 2
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