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BookMaker is the only online sportsbook where you can get the earliest MLB moneylines, runlines, totals and props. If you want to wager on baseball odds like the pros do, you need to join BookMaker today! The ballgame between the Washington Nationals and San Francisco Giants will take place Tuesday, May 30, 2017, at 10:15 p.m. ET at ATT Park. The matchup can be seen live on ESPN.
Just when it looked like the San Francisco Giants might get themselves back into the fringes of the Wildcard discussion, the Cubs get hot and the Giants face the Cubs. Now, the Giants must face another of the NL’s stacked teams in the Washington Nationals with Tuesday’s middle game of three broadcast live on ESPN.
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ODDS ANALYSIS
The Nationals have scored the most runs in baseball, though their run total in the month of May has taken a sizeable dip.
Still, they’ve outscored the Giants in the month by 16 runs heading into Sunday and still sport a .755 team OPS in the month.
The team is still waiting for Trea Turner to come around, but Michael Taylor has exceeded expectations offensively since taking over for the injured Adam Eaton. Aside from Turner, the rest of the starting lineup all have an OPS+ of at least 100. Anthony Rendon, Daniel Murphy, Bryce Harper and Ryan Zimmerman each have an OPS+ of at least 140. The four create a very difficult middle of the order for the opposition to navigate.
While the Nationals have plenty of depth. The Giants have just two above average performers. Buster Posey is having a monster year, batting .338 with seven homers and a .958 OPS. Brandon Belt leads the team in home runs with 10 and has a .829 OPS despite a .244 average.
PROBABLE PITCHERS
Tuesday’s game will feature Gio Gonzalez against Jeff Samardzija.
Gonzalez has pitched well this year. He’s 3-1 with a 2.90 ERA, second to Max Scherzer in this stacked rotation.
The veteran southpaw has kept the opposition off the board despite a 4.6 walk per nine inning ratio and a 1.371 WHIP. His FIP is 4.96 because of the elevated walk rate and indicates that Gonzo may be due for a regression.
That red flag aside, Gonzalez has allowed more than two runs in a start just twice in his 10 starts. The bad news about that, both of those games allowing more than two runs have come in his last four times out.
He’s also been prone to the home run. He didn’t allow a long ball in his last start, but had given up six in his previous three.
Gonzalez has faced the Giants 11 times in his career with some success. He’s 4-4 against them overall with a sub-3 ERA and 1.212 WHIP over 64.1 innings.
Samardzija has now thrown three straight quality starts and has five quality starts in his last six games.
Despite that, the lanky right-hander is still looking for his second win. He’s 1-6 though the team is a bit better at 4-6 when he’s on the mound. They’re 4-2 over his last six starts.
In a whole, Samardzija’s 4.50 ERA paints the picture of a rather mediocre starter. In terms of final production year over year, that’s rather accurate, but how he gets there is a wide variance of great pitching and awful pitching.
Lately, it’s been a much more positive picture than negative one. He walked his first batter in the month of May in his last start so he’s been forcing hitters to work their way on.
After a rough April where he posted a 6.32 ERA, he settled down in May. The lower walk rate was part of it, but the weaker contact was another important piece. Prior to his last start, he had only allowed on home run in four May starts. He gave up three against the Cubs in a loss his last time out. On the positive side, those three homers were all solo shots and the only three runs he gave up in that game over seven innings.
LIVE BETTING
In the end, both Gonzalez and Samardijza aren’t exactly predictable arms. Both have warning signs to indicate a regression. Samardijza has been better over the last month, but Gonzalez has had the better season.
With these arms leaving things a bit uncertain, the dynamic offense of the Nats helps sway the odds in Washington’s favor, but if this game is close in the late innings, it may be the Giants who will have the upper hand.
Not only will San Fran have the last chance given home field advantage in a close game late, but they also have the better pen.
Yes, this is the same Giants’ team that nearly fell out of the playoff picture because of their bullpen last year and; yes, this team is still not a pillar of strength in the late innings, but compared to the Nationals, the Giants pen is lockdown.
The Nationals have a 5.17 bullpen ERA. That’s the worst mark in Major League Baseball. They’re worse than the Tigers, the Mets and even the Padres.
Koda Glover is the fourth official—or mostly official—closer for this team and we aren’t even though the second month.
The young kid has shown promise and has been one of few reliable arms in the pen, when healthy, but that’s a lot of pressure for a 24-year old. Besides, even if he does perform who else can this team rely on? Matt Albers may be the answer to that question, but while he’s pitched well this year, he’s a 34-year old journeyman right-hander for a reason.
On the other side, the Giants have Mark Melancon closing out their games. The Nationals know firsthand how good he can be and he’s proven if over several different seasons with a few different teams in the closer’s role.
Besides Melancon there are still questions in the pen, but at least Hunter Strickland has more upside than Albers and more of a chance to sustain his success. Same thing for Derek Law.
QUICK PICK
The Nationals’ are a better team despite their Achille’s Heel of a bullpen. Washington needs to resolve that issue with a couple of midseason trades, but until then, they’ve shown they can slug their way to victory. Add in a good starting staff and they have been able to mount a big enough lead more times than not to allow the bullpen to bend without breaking too much.
Overall, I don’t trust Samardjiza—not that Gonzalez provides that much more assurance. I also don’t trust the Giants’ offense outside of Posey and Belt. Look for Harper and the gang to swing the bats against the Giants and slug their way to victory.
MLB Odds: Nationals 8, Giants 4
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