The Washington Nationals are such a complex team. They’re leading their division by a mile. They’re nearly a lock for the postseason, but they’re riddled with concerns, none bigger than their Achilles’ Heel in the bullpen. That pen will be bested over the weekend as the Nats head to the Gateway to the West to take on a struggling St. Louis Cardinals team.
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ODDS ANALYSIS
The Cardinals did just take two of three from a red-hot Diamondbacks team in Arizona so there’s something to be said for that. They scored 19 runs in three games and continue to hold on—barely—in a surprisingly weak NL Central.
Overall, this is a disjointed team. Even to start the year, they were a hodgepodge group and that’s gotten worse.
Defense isn’t the squad’s forte and now they are without Dexter Fowler and Kolten Wong, two of their better defenders.
With Matt Carpenter, back at the top of the lineup, the offense is heating up, but there are still issues with the recalled Randal Grichuk’s swing-and-miss, the aging bat of Yadier Molina and the lack of a shortstop now that Aledmys Diaz has been sent back to the minors.
Washington’s offense has scored the most runs in baseball. That’s due to Ryan Zimmerman and Bryce Harper more than anything. The two have a 1.012 and 1.011 OPS respectively with 37 homers between them and 119 RBIs. They’re also not alone. The team also has Daniel Murphy hitting .339 with 14 bombs and Anthony Rendon batting .299 with 15 bombs.
Beyond that there are some trouble spots. Adam Eaton and Trea Turner were supposed to be a dynamic top of the order. Eaton’s been out for a while and Michael Taylor has filled in admirably. Now, Trea Turner is out with a fractured wrist.
The speeding shortstop hadn’t hit his stride year with a .318 OBP, but he did offer speed with 33 steals. That’s now off the table. Good thing the team has Stephen Drew who in 60 at bats has a .340 average. He’ll see a lot more playing time now.
PROBABLE PITCHERS
What a great matchup lined up for this primetime showdown: Max Scherzer against Carlos Martinez.
Scherzer needs no introduction. The National’s ace is the reigning Cy Young Award winner. He’s a strong contender for the honors against this year.
The 32-year old veteran right-hander is 9-5 with a 2.06 ERA and 0.783 WHIP. He’s striking out 12 per nine innings and walking only 1.9. The righty leads the league in ERA, innings, strikeouts and WHIP. His 2.73 FIP and 212 ERA+ are also tops.
As if those numbers weren’t enough, Scherzer has been even better than that recently. In his last seven games, he’s only allowed more than one run once, giving up two in 7.1 innings against the Rangers. In that stretch, he’s struck out 75 in 54 innings with a 0.83 ERA.
As for Martinez, he’s not quite up to Scherzer’s level, but he is an ace and should be an All-Star.
The 25-year old righty is just 6-6, but that’s more a result of his team. He’s posted a 2.88 ERA and 1.072 WHIP with a 3.24 FIP. His 10.2 strikeout per nine ratio is great and his 6.4 hits per nine allowed is amongst the best in the sport even if not up to the league leading 5.1 of Scherzer.
The biggest thing that separates Martinez from Scherzer is the control. Martinez will lose the zone from time to time. Still, he’s allowed just five runs total in his last four games, throwing 27 innings.
LIVE BETTING
Good thing there are pair of aces on the hill, because that’ll help minimize the exposure of each pen.
Washington’s pen is terrible. It blew another lead on Thursday. Losing games late like that can wear on a team. Dusty Baker has done well keeping that from festering too much in the clubhouse, but it will have an impact sooner or later.
The Nats have the worst bullpen in the NL, but the Cardinals aren’t great. They’re No. 10 in the NL.
Look for this game to get real interesting as we reach the final innings.
QUICK PICK
This will be a pitcher’s duel and both starters have shown they can go deep in games, each with a pair of complete games.
Don’t count on either going the distance, particularly with each likely to have so many high-pressure pitches. Still, we could see both go seven and then turn the ball over to the pen.
While the pen is always a concern for the Nats, Scherzer is likely to go deeper than Martinez. He should alleviate some of the pressure. It’s also not like the Cardinals’ pen haven’t struggled, too.
In the end, the Nationals’ league leading offense and superior starter get them the win. Look for a big hit from Harper, Murphy or Zimmerman to be the difference in this one.
MLB Odds: Nationals 4, Cardinal 2
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