The Chicago White Sox have the worst record in the American League and have sent Jose Quintana, Todd Frazier, David Robertson and Tommy Kahnle packing in trades. Surprisingly, the Kansas City Royals may be going in the opposite direction. With so many pending free agents, it would make sense for KC to rebuild, but just a couple games out of the wildcard, it may very well be too tempting to keep the band together for one more run.
This series will be contested from Friday, July 21, 2017 through Sunday, July 23, 2017 at Kauffman Stadium in Kansas City.
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Pitching Matchups
The White Sox are a rebuilding team and the Royals made their run the last few seasons on the strength of a young nucleus of players. Despite that, it’ll be six grizzled veterans taking to the mound for these two teams over the weekend.
To kick off the season, James Shields toes the rubber for the White Sox against Ian Kennedy.
Both Shields and Kennedy pitched for the Padres before their current clubs. Shields was brought over last season in a desperate attempt to stay relevant after a hot April. It failed and has proven to be an ill-advised move.
Shields is a former ace and pitched well to lead the Royals to their first of back-to-back World Series appearances. Since joining Chicago last year, he’s 6-14 with a 6.32 ERA. He’s 2-2 with a 5.10 ERA in eight starts this year and has been plagued with injury.
Shields has allowed 10 runs in 10.2 innings in two July starts. He’s allowed four homers in those two starts as well.
Kennedy is the better pitcher at this point. He never reached the height of Shields, but has been a reliable mid-rotation arm. He’s 3-6, but his 4.32 ERA gives him a respectable 105 ERA+. His 5.27 FIP and 19 homers in 93.2 innings are a bit alarming, however.
In the middle game of three, this matchup will pin Mike Pelfrey against Jason Vargas.
Pelfrey has resurrected his career some since coming to Chicago. He looked done in Detroit and has a respectable enough 4.64 ERA in 17 games for the Sox. He, however, cannot be counted on for more than two times through any order. His third time through is where most of his runs allowed come into play. He’s a five-and-dive pitcher at this point in his career.
Vargas, on the other hand, was an All-Star. Little more than an innings eater prior to this year, Vargas has come back from injury strong, going 12-4 with a 3.06 ERA in 109 innings.
The workload may finally be catching up to a guy that combined for 55 innings over the last two years. He had a 2.22 ERA heading into July and has allowed six runs in both of his July starts. In the month, he’s pitched 7.2 innings, allowing 12 runs and five homers.
The parade of veterans continues in the series finale as Derek Holland matches up opposite Travis Wood.
Holland was great in his last start against KC, allowing two runs in 6.2 innings back in May. That was when he was pitching well. He’s allowed 13 homers and a 9.82 ERA since the start of June.
As for Wood, he’s making only his third start of the season. He’s got a -0.7 rWAR in just 37 innings of work, pitching to a 6.81 ERA.
Wood has primarily pitched in relief, but his last two games were starts. Leading into the starts, he had seven straight scoreless outings. The first start was pretty going, allowing two runs in four innings as he was getting stretched out. In the last, he went just 4.1 innings, allowing six runs.
Betting Trends
The Royals are at home against the worst team in the AL; obvious points for KC there.
Beyond that, while the Royals have cooled a bit lately, they’re 24-17 since the start of June and playing much better baseball than they did to start the year. The offense is clicking and the bullpen, which was key for KC over the years, is pitching better, too.
As for Chicago, the Sox no longer care about wins and losses. They’ve raised the white flag with their recent trades and are now looking forward to the future. The Royals, on the other hand, will be adequately motivated to show the front office that they can still make a push. This is one team loaded with players to sell, but on the fence directionally.
The numbers also register the White Sox as a longshot. Chicago is 19-31 on the road and 3-10 in July, allowing 82 runs while scoring 48 in the month. They’re lost each games since the All-Star break and are 1-9 in their last 10 games.
Players to Watch
For the White Sox, this one is easy: it’s Yoan Moncada time. Baseball’s top prospect per several publications will finally get the big-league call after raking in Triple-A.
With Frazier now a Yankee, a spot has opened for Moncada who will look to make a better impression than the one he left last year in Boston. In a brief eight game stint, Moncada looked overmatched for the Sox. In those eight games, he struck out 12 times in 19 at-bats, getting just four hits and walking once.
In his first game with Chicago, Moncada walked once in three plate appearances and didn’t strike out. The improved plate discipline is a great sign.
The 22-year old still needs to watch the strikeouts. He struck out 102 times at Triple-A Charlotte in 80 games. Despite that, he recorded a .282 average and .377 OBP while slamming 12 homers, stealing 17 bases and nabbing 24 total extra base hits. Moncada is a potential five-tool player, but can his raw skills translate to the big-league level quick enough to make him a force in 2017? We saw Aaron Judge make huge strides after a rough debut. Of course, we’ve also seen players like Byron Buxton—another former No.1 overall prospect and toolsy player—struggle after many chances.
For KC, it’s all about the impending free agents as Dayton Moore continue to debate buying versus selling as the deadline nears.
Mike Moustakas and Eric Hosmer are raking right now, increasing their trade value while also making the case the team is good enough for one more run. Alcides Escobar, after a terrible year, is hitting .283 in July. He was a catalyst atop the order for the Royals teams that used elite contact to advance to the World Series in back-to-back years. Even he is hitting right now.
The one pending free agent who is not hitting is Lorenzo Cain. He’s in a slump. He’s just 9-for-53 in his last 14 games with a couple extra base hits, but just one steal.
Speed was a differentiator for this team in years past. Now, Whit Merrifield is the lone runner with seven of the team’s nine July steals.
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