The New York Yankees came alive in the final two games against the Indians to snap a four-game skid and split the series, holding at three games back in the AL East. The Bronx Bombers will continue its road trip north of the border against the Toronto Blue Jays who sit in the cellar of the division. Despite the different in record, these teams have split the first 10 head-to-head games this season.
This series will be contested from Tuesday, August 8, 2017 through Thursday, August 10, 2017 at the Rogers Centre in Toronto.
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Pitching Matchups
The first game of this series will feature a pair of southpaws with C.C. Sabathia opposite J.A. Happ.
Injuries derailed his season a bit, but the 34-year old Happ has been okay in his attempt to repeat on his career year. He’s just 4-8, but his 3.92 ERA and 1.306 WHIP are respectable. His 116 ERA+ indicates he’s been an above average arm. While his 4.40 FIP shows he’s been a bit lucky overall, the only real red flag has been his home run rate. He’s allowed 15 homers in 85 innings.
Happ is throwing the ball well. He’s had seven quality starts in his last 10 games and went seven innings of one-run ball in his last start. The last time he faced the Yankees, he allowed one run in six innings.
Sabathia, meanwhile, lost his last game and gave up a couple homers in the process. The 17-year veteran is 9-4 with a 3.81 ERA and identical 4.40 FIP to Happ.
While Happ has pitched well his last couple times out, Sabathia’s hit a rough patch, allowing eight runs in 10.1 innings over his last two starts.
In his last start against the Jays, he lasted just 2.2 innings, allowing four runs. He’s pitched to a 7.62 ERA combined in three starts against Toronto this year.
As the series progresses, the Yankees will turn to Masahiro Takana for the middle game. The Jays will counter with Cesar Valdez.
Based on the names, this is a clear mismatch in New York’s favor, but Tanaka has been anything but a certainty this year. He allowed just a single run in six innings against the Tigers last time out, striking out 14. That was on the heels of an eight-inning, one-run performance against the Rays the game prior.
We’ve seen Tanaka have two or three game stretches before and then put up a terrible performance afterwards. His 8-10 record and 4.93 ERA are still worrisome even as the numbers start to get less and less egregious.
As for Valdez, his return to the Majors for the first time since 2010 hasn’t been great. He’s pitching to a 7.63 ERA split between the rotation and the pen. He’s allowed at least six runs in each of his last two starts, combining to pitching just 5.1 innings between the two.
The series finale may be the most interesting matchup of the three with Sonny Gray and Marco Estrada toeing the rubber.
Gray’s first start for the Yankees was okay, but resulted in a loss due to some terrible defense behind him. Gray allowed a ton of unearned runs in his last game with the A’s, too, losing against this same Jays team. He did strikeout nine in the game, however.
Overall, Gray is 6-6 with a 3.41 ERA and 1.175 WHIP in 17 starts this year. Each of his last seven games have been quality starts. His walk rate is respectable and he’s allowed only eight homers in 103 innings. That all leads to a FIP even lower than his ERA at 3.20.
As for Estrada, the righty just only 4-7 with a 5.12 ERA and 1.418 WHIP. The biggest difference between this year and the last two years is the hit per nine innings. He led the league in that category in 2015 and 2016, but his BABIP is up this year and, consequently, so are his hits allowed. He’s struggled much of the year, but has pitched well lately.
Over his last two games, he’s pitched 14 innings, allowing four runs on nine hits while striking out 12 and walking three.
In his last start against the Yankees, Estrada allowed six runs in 4.2 innings with five hits allowed, including a pair of homers.
Who's Hot?
While much of the offense has gone quiet in the Bronx, Didi Gregorius is on fire. He’s batting .356 since the break with seven home runs and 16 RBIs, leading the team in all categories.
Chase Headley is also hitting well. He’s batting .341 as he desperately tries to maintain his at-bats after the acquisition of Todd Frazier.
On the mound, Dellin Betances is back in form with 21 strikeouts in 12.2 innings in the second half and Aroldis Chapman has been putting up better numbers lately, too. The additions of David Robertson and Tommy Kahnle have gone a long way to bolster the pen.
Toronto is getting good at bats from Justin Smoak who continues his break out season. He’s got a 1.067 OPS in the second half thanks to eight homers and 17 walks driving a .427 OBP and .640 slugging.
Kendrys Morales and Steve Pearce have seen their power tick up since the break, too, while Ezequiel Carrera is red hot, batting .414 since the break in limited at bats. He is making an argument for more playing time, but has just four at bats in four games since the start of August. Meanwhile, the newly acquired Nori Aoki and Jose Bautista continue to scuffle.
Who's Not?
Aaron Judge did hit his 35th home run of the year on Sunday. It was his fifth since the break, so the youngster is still exhibiting power.
His average, however, is dropping. It’s down to .299 going into the series and he’s batting .182 since the break and he’s struck out in half of his at bats so far in August.
Judge was the centerpiece of the dynamic first half offense so him struggling is an issue, but he’s not alone. Clint Frazer is 2-for-18 in August and Matt Holliday and Todd Frazier are all hitting below the Mendoza line in the month.
For all the moves made to improve the pitching staff, it’s the offense that’s slowed of late.
On the other side of the field, the Jays have seen Roberto Osuna struggle in his last dozen appearances with 10 runs allowed. At the dish, Josh Donaldson is batting .207 in the second half and Jose Bautista is hitting .151.
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