The rivalry between the New York Yankees and Boston Red Sox has died down a bit over the last few years, but with both teams back in the race, things could start heating back up between these longtime rivals. New York held the division lead for most of the first half, but the Sox have come charging hard in the last several weeks and now hold a several game lead in the AL East.
This series will be contested from Friday, July 14, 2017 through Sunday, July 16, 2017 at Fenway Park in Boston. Each game of the four-game set will be broadcast on national television with Friday’s game being shown on MLB Network, Saturday’s showdown on Fox Sports 1 and the Sunday doubleheader split between TBS in the first game and ESPN in the night cap.
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Pitching Matchups
The Yankees have yet to announce their rotation for the second-half, but the Red Sox will open the series on Friday with Drew Pomeranz on the hill. He’ll be followed by Chris Sale, Rick Porcello and then David Price.
Pomeranz was throwing the ball very well before the break. He was 3-0 in his last five starts, pitching to a 1.82 ERA. He’s been great in his career against New York, too, pitching to a 2.40 ERA in six appearances.
The southpaw has quietly put together a very strong season with a 9-4 record 3.60 ERA and 3.62 FIP. His WHIP is a bit elevated at 1.356, but he’s generally keeping the ball in the ballpark and getting out of damage. His ability to strikeout the opposition has helped. He’s sitting down 9.8 per nine innings.
While Pomeranz is a tough enough customer, things only get harder from there. Sale started for the AL in the All-Star game and gets an extra day coming out of the break.
The ace lefty is 11-4 with a 2.75 ERA and 0.901 WHIP. He also leads the league with 178 strikeouts and has an 8.09 strikeout to walk ratio. He leads the league in FIP and went eight innings allowing only two runs in his only start against the Yankees this year.
Porcello will start the first game of Sunday’s doubleheader and represents the only right-hander to start a game this series.
The reigning Cy Young Award winner has had a down season. He’s 4-11 with a 4.75 ERA and 1.433 WHIP in his 119.1 innings. He’s allowed way too many hits and hasn’t been able to locate well enough within the strike zone. Despite that, Porcello has still pitched back-to-back quality starts including an eight-inning, one-run appearance his last time out.
Porcello has also done well against the Yankees in his career, pitching to a 3.47 ERA in 16 starts though he’s just 7-7 in those games.
Finally, that brings us to the ESPN Sunday Night game with David Price on the mound.
Price is back. He’s thrown four straight quality starts, lowering his ERA to 3.91. He’s 4-2 overall and the Sox are 5-4 when he takes the ball.
Over his last six starts, he has five quality starts and a 3.25 cumulative ERA. In his career, the Yankees have fared reasonably well against him as his ERA is an inflated 4.69 against the divisional foe, but he is 14-11 in 37 games.
On the other side, while the Yankees have yet to announce their rotation, who they will turn to, but this New York rotation is better than some believe. They have the fifth best ERA in the AL and have a nice chip waiting in the wings in Chance Adams who is pitching well in the minors.
Despite that, Michael Pineda is struggling. Masahiro Tanaka, who has been a mystery all year, looked to have rekindled the magic with a stretch of three starts that saw him allow only three runs in 21 innings. He then allowed five in 4.1 in his last start. Beyond those two, however, C.C. Sabathia and Jordan Montgomery each have sub-4 ERAs while Luis Severino is an All-Star.
Home Run Derby Fatigue
There’s no doubt that Yankees wouldn’t be anywhere close to where they are right now, even after their downturn over the last few weeks, without Aaron Judge.
After striking out half of the time in a brief showing last year, the rookie has been otherworldly this year. He hit .329 with 30 homers and a 1.139 OPS in the first half and showed no signs of slowing heading into the break.
His monstrous year earned him a spot in the Home Run Derby and an All-Star game start. While others rested, he continued to slug, making a huge impact with an impressive derby win, highlighted by a 23-homer first round.
Now the question is: will the derby have any ill-effect on the right-fielder? Coming out of the break, Judge will still have a couple days of rest and will have the added momentum from a huge derby win.
Sometimes playing in the home run derby and hurt a player’s swing for a period, but don’t look for that to be the case with Judge. What made his performance so amazing on Monday night was how many times he sent monstrous blasts the other way. He wasn’t pulling everything and, thus, really didn’t do much to change his swing for the event.
Bullpen Breakdowns
The Yankee pitching has regressed heading into the break, leading to their slide in the standings.
New York was getting better than expected production from everyone not named Masahiro Tanaka early on, including the pen. Lately, there’ve been a lot more struggles, much of which has come in relief.
Overall, New York’s bullpen still ranks sixth in team ERA at 3.66. That puts them third in the AL behind only two teams: Cleveland and Boston. The Red Sox rank No. 3 overall with a 3.08 ERA.
More recently, the separation expands. Early on, the Yankee pen looked very good with Aroldis Chapman in the ninth and Tyler Clippard and Dellin Betances setting up. Joe Girardi then had Adam Warren and Chad Green available in the early innings.
Now, Clippard’s ERA has ballooned to 5.24 while Betances hasn’t been himself over the his last few outings. Over the right-hander’s first 24 appearances, he pitched to a 0.40 ERA with 17.1 strikeouts per nine innings. He still walked 5.6 per nine, but had just 3.6 hits per nine allowed to give him a solid 1.015 WHIP. Then, the control disappeared. Over his last eight games, he’s allowed nine runs in 5.2 innings, allowing 12 walks and giving up five hits, including his only homer allowed this year.
As for Clippard, the veteran right-hander has been lost for longer than Betances. He’s now 1-5. He did string together three straight scoreless appearances before his last game where he notched his fifth loss, allowing four runs in 1.2 innings. The Yankees are now 1-9 in the last 10 games he’s pitched.
As for the Sox, they’ve got a much better pen. Craig Kimbrel is lights out in the ninth and Joe Kelly has developed into a very good setup man with a 1.49 ERA in 36.1 innings pitched.
Right now, the Boston offense also presents a bigger challenge for the Yankee pen than the Yankee offense does for the Boston pen.
The Sox have scored 22 more runs in July than the Yankees. New York is batting .204 this month compared to .282 for Boston. The Sox have also hit more homers as Mookie Betts and Andrew Benintendi both have seen an uptick in their recent power production.
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