We have the matchup most expected with the Cleveland Indians taking on the New York Yankees in this best of five. The Yankees had a hard-fought battle in the Wild Card Game to get here, getting just a third of an inning from Luis Severino, but the strong bullpen and powerful lineup delivered. After serving as the heavy favorite against the Twins, the Yankees now enter this series as the underdogs against the World Series favorite.
This series will be contested beginning on Thursday, October 5, 2017 at Progressive Field in Cleveland. The series will be broadcast on Fox Sports 1 and MLB Network.
Bet on MLB odds at BookMaker.eu every day of the season.
Starting Pitching Matchups
Terry Francona made an interesting announcement on Tuesday, dubbing Trevor Bauer as his Game 1 starter for this series. From there, Corey Kluber and Carlos Carrasco are slated to start Game 2 and Game 3 respectively. If a fourth starter is needed, Josh Tomlin will get the nod. That puts both Danny Salazar and Mike Clevinger into the bullpen.
Bauer had a great second half and ended the season with 17 wins. Overall, the 26-year old right-hander is 17-9 with a 4.19 ERA and 1.367 WHIP. In the second half of the year, Bauer is 10-2 with a 3.01 ERA. His WHIP is still high as he’s walking too many batters and is still allowing more than a hit per inning. Despite the base runners, he’s done a good job over the last few months at keeping runs off the board.
The right-hander has also been a strikeout machine. He’s sat down 196 batters in 176.1 innings of work. He’s gotten the big strikeout when needed, particularly at home. Bauer’s ERA at home this season is half a run lower than his road mark. He’s 10-4 at Progressive Field.
Most will remember Bauer for his lackluster performance—and drone injury—in last year’s postseason, but the righty has certainly matured over the last year. It’s still an interesting decision to start him in Game 1, though starting in Game 2 over Carrasco who pitches better on the road, makes sense.
With Bauer on the mound, the Yankees will have an easier time in Game 1 than they will in Game 2 with Kluber on the bump.
Kluber is the best pitcher in the American League. He missed a few starts, but still ended the year with the league lead in wins. At 18-4, Kluber’s also the league leader in winning percentage, ERA, shutouts, WHIP, and strikeout-to-walk ratio. He’s pitched to a 2.25 ERA with a 0.869 WHIP. He forces the opposition to work their way on base, with a league-leading walk and hit rate.
We saw just how good Kluber can be in the postseason last year. He pitched seven scoreless in the ALDS last year and was 4-1 with a 1.83 ERA in six playoff starts last year. In two starts against the Yankees this year, he’s 2-0 with a 1.59 ERA in 17 innings.
As amazing as it sounds, Kluber has gotten even better in the second half. He’s 11-1 with a 1.79 ERA in his last 15 starts. He was 5-1 with a 1.96 ERA in August and 5-0 with a 0.84 ERA in September. He’s been essentially unhittable.
In Game 3, the Tribe will have another 18-game winner on the hill as the Indians will hit the road. Carrasco is 18-6 with a 3.29 ERA and 1.095 WHIP. Like the rest of the Indians’ rotation, Carrasco is a strikeout machine.
On the road, Carrasco is 11-2 with a 2.65 ERA and 0.997 WHP in 17 starts. Like Bauer and Kluber, Carrasco has stepped up his game lately. He’s pitched to a 3.12 ERA since the All-Star Break.
The last starter—should he be needed—will be Josh Tomlin. Tomlin is the only Indian starter amongst the six with the most starts to average fewer than 10 strikeouts per nine innings. He’s notching only seven. Despite that, his strikeout to walk ratio is the best of the bunch at 7.79. He doesn’t walk anybody. He will allow his share of base hits. His 4.98 ERA is concerning, but he’s thrown the ball well since coming off the DL, going 5-0 in nine starts with a 3.19 ERA.
Tomlin also knows what it means to produce in October. He was solid in the ALDS last year and lockdown in the ALCS.
On the other side, the Yankees having just advanced the ALDS have obviously not yet announced their rotation for the series, but it looks like Sonny Gray will be given the Game 1 start.
Gray is only 4-7 in 11 starts for the Yankees, but that’s more on the Yankees’ offense and defense than his pitching. The right-hander has a 3.72 ERA. He’s gotten no support.
While Gray’s numbers are solid, he has had some command issues from time-to-time as evident by his 3.7 walk per nine inning ratio. Despite that, he’s been effective.
Combined between the A’s and the Yankees, Gray is 10-12 with a 3.55 ERA and 1.207 WHIP in 162.1 innings. He’s a good starter, but how will he fair in the postseason? He was good in the ALDS back in 2013, but that was quite some time ago.
After Gray, the Yankees will have a decision to make. C.C. Sabathia, Masahiro Tanaka and Luis Severino figure to be the other three starters. Severino lasted only a third of an inning in the Wild Card game so we could go in Game 2, but will likely still be held for Game 3 at Yankee Stadium.
Sabathia getting the start in Cleveland would be a good storyline for the former Indian. Sabathia is also been a better road pitcher in 2017 with a 7-3 record and 3.18 ERA. All in all, the veteran southpaw has been surprisingly effective and surprisingly consistent for the Yankees. He’s not the dominating ace he was when the Yankees first brought him onboard, but he’s a seasoned vet that is dependable.
Tanaka was the team ace coming into the season, but at 13-12 with a 4.74 ERA, there’s a good case for the righty to not get on the mound again until Game 4. He’s really struggled with the home run, allowing 35 in 178.1 innings. Tanaka is coming off a seven-inning shutout where he struck out 15, but before that, he allowed eight runs in 5.2 innings. That’s the up-and-down rollercoaster he’s been on since April.
Having Tanaka take the mound at Yankee Stadium is also a much better idea than giving him the ball in Game 2 on the road. He has a 9-5 record and 3.22 ERA at home, but is 4-7 with a 6.48 ERA on the road.
As to Luis Severino, the biggest question for him is: how will he bounce back from the struggles in the AL Wild Card game?
With a 5.3 rWAR, 14-6 record and 2.98 ERA, Severino was the team’s ace throughout the year. The 23-year old will garner Cy Young votes, but we are seeing him in the postseason for the first time.
Severino had another short outing against the Twins back on September 20, going just three innings in that game. Save that game—and the Wild Card game against the same Minnesota team—the righty has been amazing lately. In his last eight games of the regular season, he delivered seven quality starts and five starts of one run or less.
Offensive Comparison
Cleveland finished the regular season as hot as any team in baseball. They went 33-4 to end the year. A lot of that success is attributable to the pitching turnaround in the second-half, but the offense has been rolling, too.
Since the All-Star break, the Indians have scored the second most runs in the AL, plating 397, just fewer than the Twins.
Cleveland has been able to get on base and drive the ball deep. This team is essentially a more robust offense than the one that went to Game 7 of the World Series last year.
Edwin Encarnacion has slammed 38 homers and driven in 107 while Francisco Lindor has developed power after being mostly a slap hitter. He’s hit 33 bombs and 44 doubles. He’s also added four triples. Those two are great. Jay Bruce was a nice mid-season add. Michael Brantley, Carlos Santana and Lonnie Chisenhall have all had great years, too.
The biggest name in the Indians’ lineup right now, however, is Jose Ramirez. We thought we saw his breakout last year, but he’s taken it to a whole new level in 2017. He ended the year with a .318 average. He’s belting 29 homers and stole 17 bases, ending the year with a .957 OPS.
For the Yankees, their offense is only been a tick behind the Indians’ offense in the second half, scoring just 16 fewer runs.
New York’s offense was the best in baseball in September, just ahead of the Indians. Aaron Judge is as hot as he’s been all year. The slugger ended with 52 homers with a .284/.422/.627 slash line and an 8.1 rWAR. He will finish in the top two in the MVP voting.
He did lead the league in strikeouts so he can be pitched to, but when he’s on his game, he’s a hard out. He’s been on his game in the last month, hitting .311 with 15 homers after batting just .185 with three homers in August.
It’s no coincidence that when Judge slumped, the Yankees’ slumped and when Judge got hot, the Yankees got hot. He’s the main storyline for this offense, but he’s not alone in his production. Down the stretch, Greg Bird started getting hot.
If not for Judge, Gary Sanchez would be a bigger story with his 33 homers and 90 RBIs in 122 games. In addition, Didi Gregorius hit .318 with 25 homers in 136 games. The list goes on and on with good bats. There are nine batters with double digit homers for the Yankees. Matt Holliday is a veteran bat that can give you a quality at-bat at any time.
This is a powerful team. They led the majors in homers and will be a threat to go yard throughout the series with Cleveland.
Bullpen Breakdown
The Indians’ bullpen is the best in baseball, just look as the team ERA is 2.89 out of the pen. Cleveland has the advantage here against all opponents, but the gap between them and the Yankees is smaller than any other potential opponent. New York has a strong, deep bullpen, too. As a team, the pen ERA is 3.34, ranking third in baseball.
The Yankees’ bullpen will be a bit gassed coming into this series. The unit was asked to pitch nearly the entire game on Tuesday. Fortunately, a day off on Wednesday affords the team at least a little breather, but several arms went deep including Chad Green, David Robertson, and Tommy Kahnle.
New York’s pen has plenty of options available to Joe Girardi. Aroldis Chapman will be available in the ninth—and sometimes the eighth—when the Bombers have the lead, but getting to him, the options include Green, Robertson, Dellin Betances, Adam Warren, Chasen Shreve and Tommy Kahnle, all boasting dynamic stuff and great strikeout numbers.
Betances, who may have the best stuff of the bunch, is the biggest question mark. The right-hander has walked 44 and hit 11 more in 59.2 innings. He’s been incredibly wild lately and cannot be trusted in late, tight situations right now.
On the other side, the Indians’ biggest bullpen cog is the former Yankee: Andrew Miller.
Miller was the ALCS MVP last year and went 11.2 scoreless frames between the ALDS and ALCS. Overall, in 16 games and 27.2 innings, he has a postseason ERA of 0.98.
Miller has had some injury issues this year, but has been good when he’s been on the mound. He’s looked good since coming off the DL in September. In addition to Miller, Terry Francona has Bryan Shaw, Dan Otero, and Nick Goody at his disposal. Cody Allen is set in the ninth and was nearly as unhittable in last year’s postseason as Miller.
In addition to those bullpen vets, Danny Salazar has electric stuff that can play up in the pen while Mike Clevinger was a 12-game winner with a 3.11 ERA. He was an effective starter, but has relief experience and could be a valuable arm to give the team a few innings if a starter is knocked out early.
Quick Pick
The Indians matched up much more favorably against the Twins given their lack of pitching both in the rotation and the bullpen. Instead of that matchup, the Tribe must contend with a Yankees team that can matchup pitcher for pitcher with the Indians’ vaunted bullpen. The New York offense also offers a ton more power than Minnesota, but the Indians still have just as deep of a lineup to contend. Ultimately, the biggest gap between these teams is in the rotation. How will Luis Severino bounce back from his Wild Card showing? Which Masahiro Tanaka will we see? Is Sonny Gray up for the challenge of the postseason. The Indians have already shown what they can do in the postseason. Even with Kluber in Game 2, this Indians rotation is significantly better than the Yankees.
MLB Odds: Indians over Yankees in Four
BookMaker offers play-by-play betting odds for live sporting events every day! The user-friendly wagering interface on your smartphone provides an easy way to place bets on the go. Mobile betting lines are updated by the minute, so click here to start gambling on thrilling live action at BookMaker Sportsbook!
