The Texas Rangers have used a large element of luck to zoom out to a commanding lead in the American League West, and hope to hang on to it down the stretch. They have a tough matchup against their biggest foe soon, as the Rangers will host the Houston Astros on Saturday, September 3rd, 2016, at Globe Life Park in Arlington, Texas. Even though the Rangers have the better record and play at home, the smart money will get wagered on Houston.
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ODDS ANALYSIS
The Rangers are 79-54 through Tuesday’s action but with a run-differential of only plus-9. That would likely portend a record of just over .500, but Texas is comfortably better than that. They have gotten healthier with the return of star pitcher Yu Darvish and have some good young talent, so they aren’t a pushover but should not be counted among the American League’s best teams.
The Houston Astros are 70-62 on the season but have a much better run-differential of plus-50. The Astros are on the outside looking in at the playoff picture but are still within striking distance of the wild cards. The Astros would love to make up ground in the American League West and need to dominate the Rangers in head-to-head matchups in order to contend for the divisional title.
PROBABLE PITCHERS
Texas right-hander Colby Lewis is 6-1 with a 3.21 ERA on the season. He has been very good thus far but is only striking out 5.60 batters per nine innings, which could result in an ERA that increases moving forward.
The Astros will counter with Doug Fister, who is 12-9 with a 3.60 ERA. Fister is another low-strikeout guy but has pitched well thus far. Even though both hurlers have solid ERAs, it would be little surprise if the offenses were prominent in this matchup.
LIVE BETTING
The Astros are led by the star trio of Jose Altuve, Carlos Correa and George Springer. Altuve is an MVP candidate with an average of .352 with 22 homers and 88 RBIs at second base. Houston has a solid young core led by these three and should be good for a long time. They hope to rough up Lewis.
The Rangers also have several impressive young players, including Nomar Mazara, Jurickson Profar and Elvis Andrus. They are flanked by veterans like Adrian Beltre and Carlos Beltran who give the offense some power in the middle of the order.
QUICK PICK
The Rangers might not have a great run-differential, but they have beefed up their team with some trades and are a good bet to win the division with a big lead. However, the Astros are arguably the more talented team and still very much in contention for the playoffs.
Time is running out for Houston to play catch-up, but a sweep of this series in Texas would bring the Astros right back into contention. Fister needs to out-pitch Lewis in this one and the offense has to get some contribution from the bottom of the lineup.
The Rangers will likely be favored in this showdown but the smart money will be on the Astros to pull off the upset and close the gap in the standings.
MLB Odds: Astros 6, Rangers 4
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