It’s been 71 years, but we finally have World Series baseball back in Wrigley Field for the first time since October 10, 1945 as the Indians and Cubs get set to square off in Game 3 with the series tied at one.
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ODDS ANALYSIS
Game 1 was all Indians. The 6-0 final insinuates an easy win for Cleveland. That’s not the case, but they did control the lead from the first inning and while Chicago mounted a few threats, they couldn’t break through against Corey Kluber or the Indians’ bullpen.
Game 2 painted a different picture. Trevor Bauer wasn’t as sharp, but Jake Arrieta was. Instead of seeing the Indians manufacture runs, we saw the Cubs’ offense breakthrough for the first time. Given the 5-1 victory for the Cubs, these first two games offer a great glimpse into how balanced of a match up we have for this series. And how important it is for both teams to get the early lead.
Cubs are at home where they played over .700 baseball in the regular season. Chicago is 4-1 at Wrigley in the postseason. Of course, Cleveland has won both home and away this postseason, but they haven’t had a trip to Wrigley.
The crowd will definitely be an advantage. Can Chicago ride the excitement and energy to an early lead?
PROBABLE PITCHERS
What seems like a lopsided matchup at first glance is actually an interesting showdown of two pitchers that rely on control and inducing soft contact. Both are also throwing the ball really well.
The story of each starters’ season and how they got here, however, are very different with the Cubs’ Kyle Hendricks having a break out campaign that placed his squarely in the Cy Young conversation. Meanwhile, the Indians’ Josh Tomlin is starting in this postseason as a result of injuries and was so bad as recently as August that he managed to go five innings just once in six starts that month.
Overall, it’s easy to favor Hendricks. The young right-hander led all of baseball with his 2.13 ERA in the regular season and is coming off a dynamic NLCS where he threw 12.2 innings, allowing just a single run and five hits. Better yet, in the deciding Game 6, he went 7.1 innings of shutout ball, allowing only two hits and walking nobody.
While Tomlin’s season has been very up-and-down with a great start and a terrible middle, he ended the regular season with a 1.69 ERA in five games in September. He’s then been nails in the postseason.
Hendricks had a good NLCS, but struggled in his NLDS start. Tomlin was good in both. He’s not given much length because he hasn’t had to, given the bullpen for Cleveland, but he did his job in both games, going five innings of two run ball against Boston and five and two thirds of one run ball against the Jays.
This is a much more balanced pitching matchup than it appears on the surface. The Cubs do have a potential Cy Young Award winner toeing the rubber so he gets the edge, particularly after his dominance of the Dodgers, but look for Tomlin to keep the Indians in the game before turning the ball over to the pen in the sixth.
LIVE BETTING
Game 3 means a shift from Cleveland to Chicago, from Progressive Field to Wrigley Field and from AL rules to NL rules.
That means Kyle Schwarber is on the bench, but he hasn’t been key to the Cubs’ success this year. He’s been a good story in this World Series and looks pretty good at the plate, but he’ll get a chance or two in a pinch hitter position.
The Indians, on the other hand, will have to put either Carlos Santana or Mike Napoli on the bench while the other plays first.
Both Santana and Napoli have been integral parts of the everyday lineup. They were tied for the team lead in homers in the regular season with 34 and ranked first and second in RBIs with Napoli recording 101 and Santana adding 87.
Santana’s also been the team’s lead-off man against right-handers. If he’s benched, that means a major shakeup in the lineup. If Napoli is out, that’s shakes up the heart of the order, sliding everybody up a slot and asking everyone to do a little bit more.
QUICK PICK
We have ourselves a series with the Indians and Cubs splitting the first two in Cleveland. Game 3 becomes another pivotal game, but with the electricity likely to be coursing through Wrigley, Chicago is in a great position to claim its first series lead.
The Indian’s best feature is their bullpen and with the off-day on Thursday, that bullpen will be rested. Expect to see plenty of Andrew Miller and Cody Allen with Bryan Shaw likely to make an appearance, too, unless Tomlin can get through six which seems unlikely.
With the Indians basically shutdown after six, the Cubs will need to jump in front early to win. Look for that to happen. Tomlin’s been good for the better part of two months, but he’s not an elite level starter like Hendricks established himself to be this season.
The Cubs offense could also find some mojo returning home, building on their success in Game 2 where they bounced back to score five after being shutout a night before.
In the end, the Cubs scratch out a few runs against Tomlin and the bullpen slams the door after that, but the damage will have been done. Count on a big start from Hendricks who is on top of his game right now, going deep enough to allow Joe Maddon plenty of options to bridge the gap to Aroldis Chapman.
MLB Odds: Cubs 4, Indians 3
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