With a 2-1 series lead, the Indians now get to turn to their ace to try and put the Cubs’ season on life support while Chicago will fight to pull this series back even. The Cubs have already come back from a 2-1 deficit this postseason so this series is still very much up in the air.
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ODDS ANALYSIS
Game 1 was all about the Indians, Game 2 went to the Cubs. Both teams had their offense go quiet in their respective losses in Cleveland.
In Game 3, neither offense could muster much even with the bullpens pitching the majority of the innings for each team. As it turns out, a single run was enough to get the Indians the win.
In the seventh, the Indians inched out the win off a pinch hit single by Coco Crisp. Terry Francona used his bench like a champ in the National League park, but we did see the NL rules pull Andrew Miller out of the game earlier than the Indians would’ve liked. Still, the bullpen was deep enough and Bryan Shaw shouldered the load.
When you break down this matchup, Cleveland continues to have the edge in the bullpen. With Shaw pitching the bulk of the innings for the pen, it keeps the Indians’ top two relievers rested enough to be full goes tomorrow.
Offensively, it appears neither team is lighting up the opposition as pitching is winning the day and with that, the Indians could be sitting in a good position for Game 4 with Corey Kluber coming back.
PROBABLE PITCHERS
The Indians will summon back their ace to make his second start of the series, turning to Corey Kluber on short rest. Meanwhile, the Cubs’ rotation is deeper and Chicago will go with veteran right-hander John Lackey.
Kluber was on top of his game in Game 1 and kept the Cubs hitters shaking their heads as they went back to the dugout.
The right-hander struck out eight in his first three innings and ultimately went six scoreless, with four hits allowed, no walks and nine strikeouts. There was more in the tank, too. He went just 88 pitches, but Miller and Cody Allen shut the door. With a shorter outing in Game 1, that should help Kluber be better set for his quick return.
Kluber made a start on short rest in the ALCS and that was the only game of the series that the Indians lost. After dominating the Blue Jays in Game 1, he was more pedestrian the second time around, going five innings, allowing two runs on four hits and two walks, though he did strikeout seven.
Overall, Kluber has had a postseason to remember, going 3-1 with a 0.74 ERA. He’s allowed just those two runs to the Jays in 24.1 innings and has given up just 17 hits and seven walks in that span, leaving his WHIP at 0.986.
In short, Kluber’s pitched very well this entire postseason and he dominated the Cubs’ lineup in Game 1, but was more hittable the second time around against Toronto after going on short rest. The same scenario is at play here in World Series Game 4.
The short rest question isn’t an issue for the Cubs. John Lackey is clearly the fourth starter on this team. His stats don’t match up with the first three, but he still ended the regular season with an 11-8 record, 3.35 ERA and 1.057 WHIP. At 38 years of age, the right-hander isn’t a flame thrower. He isn’t a dominating ace, but he’s a battler and he’s a solid veteran arm.
Don’t overlook Lackey in this matchup. But he could have the opposite problem that Kluber faces: too much rest.
He last pitched in Game 4 of the NLCS and has two postseason starts to date, going just four innings in each so look for Joe Maddon to have another short leash for his veteran.
In 20 career starts against Cleveland, Lackey is 8-9 with a 3.92 ERA and 1.399 WHIP. Rajai Davis in particularly has handled Lackey with ease, hitting .343 in 35 at bats while Coco Crisp, Mike Napoli and Carlos Santana have all gone yard on him.
LIVE BETTING
This has been a very interesting series so far. The Indians plated six in the first game and the Cubs scored five in the second, but both games felt a lot closer than the final score. And both offenses come with their questions.
In Game 3, we saw just one total run. The Cubs offense has gone ice cold again and the Indians’ offense hasn’t been much more prolific in this World Series, but that’s been the case for Cleveland all postseason yet the team is still 10-1 in 11 postseason games. They managed to score just enough.
Another aspect of these teams to watch is the bullpen. Lackey’s not gone deep in games this postseason, but Maddon went to the pen earlier than he wanted with Kyle Hendricks on the bump in Game 3. The Indians also went to the pen early with a threat in the fifth requiring Miller’s attention.
Miller only went an inning and a third, tossing 17 pitches, so he’ll be available in Game 4. But haven seen him a few times now could minimize his impact. After all, it was the Cubs in Game 1 that got him to bend and while he didn’t break, he looked somewhat human.
QUICK PICK
This has been a very good series through the first three games and Game 4 should be another tough battle. You can once again expect a low run total. The under has been successful in the early going of this series and should payout again on Saturday.
As for the final score, look for these teams to be separated by very little when all is said and done. Again, the bullpen will be crucial and that plays into the Indians’ hands. They’ve got the deeper pen, but should either team get to the ninth—or even the eighth—with the lead, each have a closer to shut the door. Cleveland’s crew setting up the closer is much better with Maddon not having much faith right now in the Pedro Strops and Hector Rondons of the world.
In addition to the pen, the starting matchup favors Cleveland, too. The short rest question for Kluber is really the only sticking point.
While we haven’t seen many runs at all this series, the Cubs should fare better against Kluber the second time around. It’s not likely to be a massive break out on offense like the Cubs enjoyed in their Game 4 of the NLCS.
Overall, look for a few more runs from both teams, but Cleveland stole the momentum in Game 3 and with their bullpen and their ace, look for them to hold that a steal another nail bitter on the road.
MLB Odds: Indians 4, Cubs 3
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