After waiting 71-years, the party at Wrigley ends on Sunday one way or another. If Cleveland wins, that’s all she wrote for the 2016 season, but even if the Cubs take the game, the series heads back to Cleveland with the Indians needing just one win in two games. That’s the best case scenario right now for the Cubs.
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ODDS ANALYSIS
The Indians are doing everything right: they’re scoring when given the chance, they’re keeping the Cubs off the board when Chicago puts runners in scoring position and they’re pitching well.
After dominating the lineup in Game 1 on his two-seamer, Corey Kluber went heavy with his breaking stuff in Game 4 to keep the Cubs’ hitters off balance. It worked.
Chicago’s been generally lost at the plate. The Cubs have been able to put runners on, but haven’t—save for Game 2—been able to drive those runners in.
In Game 4, we started to see Chicago come apart at the seams, possibly reacting to the pressure of being the favorite and falling behind. For example, Kris Bryant had a two-error inning leading to runs.
It’s never been more important for a team to get out to an early lead, and hold it for a couple innings, as it is for Chicago to score a few early against the Indians on Sunday. The Cubs scored first on Saturday, but immediately allowed a pair of runs in the next inning, including a lead-off home run to Carlos Santana.
PROBABLE PITCHERS
The Indians went to their ace on short rest on Saturday, the Cubs will turn to theirs on Sunday on regular rest with Jon Lester toeing the rubber.
On the other side, the Indians will hope for a bit more from Trevor Bauer the second time around, but bettors should be skeptical of the young right-hander’s chances given his limited innings in the postseason, injured hand and short rest.
Both Lester and Bauer are making their second start this series, but one is much more reliable than the other.
In Lester’s Game 1 start, the Indians were able to get in his head with a Francisco Lindor stolen base in the first inning and parlayed that to a few runs, but Lester shut the door after that and kept Chicago in the game. Unfortunately, he went against Kluber and the Tribe’s bullpen that handed the Cubs a shutout loss.
The competition in Game 5 is a bit easier. Bauer lasted just 3.2 innings in his first start of the series, allowing two runs and six hits while also walking two batters in that that time as the Cubs went on to win Game 2, 5-1.
It’s pretty obvious that Lester had the better outing the first time around and the veteran left-hander is also pitching on regular rest while Bauer’s making the start with just three days off.
The Indians cannot expect much from Bauer again. He’s pitched just nine innings in three postseason starts. He’s dealing with an injury and hasn’t shown great command. He’s also a mid-to-back of the rotation arm at best. He was 12-8 in the regular season, but had a 4.26 ERA and 1.311 WHIP. Those numbers aren’t bad, but pale in comparison to Lester’s 19-5 record, 2.44 ERA and 1.016 WHIP.
In addition, the support for Lester giving the Cubs’ the edge gets even stronger when you consider Lester’s postseason pedigree. He’s 3-1 with a 1.35 ERA in 26.2 World Series innings. The only loss came in Game 1. Overall, in 14 postseason series, Lester has a 2.60 ERA in 124.2 innings.
LIVE BETTING
Desperation has started to sink in for the Cubs. Chicago’s been a fundamentally sound team all season long, but we’re now seeing errors and hitters pressing. Joe Maddon has been the master of lineup variation and has been able to put his players in place to succeed. That’s not happened in his World Series. Instead, Terry Francona has had the magic hand for the Indians.
Whether it’s pulling the right arm in from the bullpen or calling on the right-man to pinch hit, it seems all of Francona’s moves are paying off while despite what Maddon does, he cannot find the offense the Cubs need. Much of the Cubs’ young lineup is trying to do too much. We saw, for instance, Addison Russell miss mistakes from Kluber by swinging too hard. Javier Baez has also fallen back into his old ways, pulling off the ball and driving way too much swing and miss.
The Indians, on the other hand, are firing on all cylinders. The bullpen is the strength, but the offense is handling the Cubs pitching and the starters are doing enough. Trevor Bauer has been the exception so it’s crucial for the Cubs to take advantage of the pitching mismatch. The Cubs need their offense to come alive. These hitters are young, but they’re good. Too good to just completely disappear and fall in a five game series. Look for a renaissance by this offense on Sunday.
One takeaway that does benefit the Cubs is the fact Andrew Miller gave up a run. On top of the quality at bats against him in Game 1, there’s a small chink in the armor of Cleveland’s not-so-secret weapon. Miller also tossed two innings in the 7-2 victory, putting into question just how many pitches he’ll be able to throw on Sunday.
QUICK PICK
The Indian’s bullpen has been able to make up for the starting pitching mismatch so far this postseason against a few different opponents, but the Lester versus Bauer matchup surely doesn’t look good for Cleveland.
Bank on the Cubs doing what they need to do against Bauer early to grab an early lead and that, coupled with home field advantage and a lockdown closer should get the Cubs in the win column on Sunday night and build some momentum for the trip back to Cleveland.
This is a must win game for the Cubs, but the Indians have some wiggle room. This could lead Maddon to do whatever he needs to do to get the win while Francona may be willing to handle with more caution with two more chances to close out the series.
This will still be a good game. The first four games of this series have all been good games. Look for the Cubs to extend the series with a win behind their ace, and look for the Cubs’ offense to build some confidence after their recent struggles by scoring a few off of Bauer.
MLB Odds: Cubs 5, Indians 3
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