The Royals got out to an early lead in Game 1 off an inside-the-park homer in support of their grieving starter, Edinson Volquez. It was the first time the Mets were trailing in 41 consecutive innings, but they were able to overcome the deficit behind Matt Harvey, pushing the game 14 innings before falling to the Royals in a heartbreaker, 5-4.
ODDS ANALYSIS
Heading into the series, neither the Royals nor Mets had ever won a World Series Game 1. That, obviously, changed on Tuesday with Kansas City capturing the series lead.
The winner of Game 1 of the Fall Classic has gone on to win the series in 23 of the last 27 series. Going back even further, the winner of Game 1 has captured 69 of 110 series titles. More recently, the team with the series lead heading into Game 2 has won 11 of 12.
In addition to that trend on the Royals’ side, the home team has won 23 of the last 29 series.
PITCHING MATCHUP
After solid pitching in Game 1, we’ll have another interesting pitching matchup in Game 2 with Jacob deGrom squaring off against Johnny Cueto.
deGrom has had an excellent postseason, throwing three games, all on the road. The young right-hander is 3-0 in those three starts with a 1.80 ERA. In the regular season, he recorded 14 wins with a 2.54 ERA and 0.979 WHIP.
The 27-year old hurler is a lot more of a certainty than the Royals’ midseason pickup.
Cueto showed signs of dominance in Game 5 of the ALDS against the Astros, throwing eight innings and allowing two runs on just two hits.
Outside of that start, however, he had a mediocre outing in Game 2 of that series and added a downright terrible start in Game 3 of the ALDS, giving up eight runs in just two innings against the Jays.
There’s no doubt Cueto has the stuff to dominate any opponent, but his swagger has been off. He thrives on varying his arm slot, quick pitching and holding the ball. He throws off the opposition’s timing, but the Mets have handled him reasonably well.
QUOTE TO NOTE
Given Cueto’s inconsistencies, manger Ned Yost is hoping putting him on the mound at home helps. He had this to say about his hurler pitching at home:
“He more than anyone else really draws that energy from our fans. We just felt it was the best move.”
LIVE/SITUATIONAL BETTING
The longer layoff for the Mets could have been an issue, but New York was able to get back on track pretty quickly with Daniel Murphy—although without a home run—continuing his scorching hot postseason play with a couple of hits.
In addition, Curtis Granderson slammed a long ball. The Mets also got a RBI from rookie outfielder Michael Conforto. He’s now the first player to do so in the Little League World Series, College World Series and MLB World Series.
The Royals have the experience in the World Series and have guys that can put the bat on the ball. They’ve already had a number of postseason comebacks as a result. In Game 1, they fought back from a 3-1 deficit to finally get the win. Kansas City’s bats’ tendency to put the ball in play matches up well with the Mets’ talented young arms who tend to constantly be around the plate.
PROP TALK
Pitchers typically have the edge when they’ve never faced a batter before. It’s hard for hitters to prepare for a pitcher’s stuff before seeing it. That bodes well for deGrom.
On the other side, Cueto has spent his career in the National League and most Mets’ batters have seen him at least a few times. In 11 starts over his career, he’s got a 3-4 record with a 4.02 ERA and 1.369 WHIP. Travis d’Arnaud is 3-for-5, including two doubles.
ANALYSIS AND PREDICTION
Cueto is the key. He needs to pitch well, particularly since both bullpens worked a lot in Game 1, but deGrom definitely gives the Mets a better chance.
Kansas City has the edge in the bullpen, but the Mets are solid in the closer role with Jeurys Familia. They also have a couple rested arms with Colon and Niese taking up most of the bullpen innings in Game 1. Add in deGrom’s ability to go deep along with Tyler Clippard and Addison Reed, and the Mets’ pen is sitting far better off than you’d expect after 14-innings.
Since both offenses are hitting well, the pitching will be the ultimate differentiator.
New York 6, Kansas City 4
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