The New York Yankees (38-32, $56) are set to journey deep into the heart of Texas to kick off a four game weekend set against the Houston Astros (41-31, $795) on Thursday.
Surprisingly, here in late June, it’s the Astros boasting the better record.
ODDS ANALYSIS
While still 10 games over .500, the Astros have dropped three of their last four games as of Tuesday. They will be happy to return home on Thursday, however, as Houston is 23-14 at Minute Maid Park ($517), but just a game over .500 on the road ($278).
On the other side, the Yankees are a game under .500 on the road at 18-19 (-$40) and lost four of five on their last road trip away from the Bronx.
Overall, New York has dropped seven of their last 12 games and have lost back-to-back games after dropping the series finale against the Tigers on Sunday, 12-4, and then falling 11-8 against the Phillies on Monday with both Masahiro Tanaka and Michael Pineda letting them down.
PITCHING MATCHUP
Neither Tanaka nor Pineda will get a chance at redemption on Thursday as Adam Warren is slated to take the mound in a now expanded six-man rotation.
Warren was originally just supposed to keep the rotation spot warm until Ivan Nova returned from the disabled list, but the 27-year old right-hander has been too good to take out of the rotation.
In 13 starts, Warren is 5-4 with a 3.62 ERA and 1.208 WHIP over 77 innings. His strike out rate this year is down at just 5.8 compared to his career mark of 7.3, but he is still getting outs, though his FIP is a bit more elevated at 4.25.
In his last start, the young righty went eight innings against the Tigers striking out seven and allowing just two runs. It was his sixth quality start in his last seven games.
In his career against the Astros, he’s pitched eight and a third innings, allowing just two runs and striking out nine.
While Warren has been solid, the Astros’ starter has been even better.
Dallas Keuchel gets the start for Houston and while his ERA has been on the rise of late, he is still 8-3 with a 2.35 ERA and 0.978 WHIP in 107 1/3 innings of work spanning 15 starts.
After a 0.73 ERA in April and 2.62 in May, Keuchel’s ERA has ballooned to 4.21 here in June over four starts. The biggest issue of late has been the home run. He allowed just three in his first 11 starts, but has allowed four in his last four.
In his last start, the 27-year old southpaw allowed a season high five runs over six innings to the Mariners.
QUOTE TO NOTE
After his last start, Keuchel noted how he needs to pitch better moving forward, saying:
“I can’t walk four guys in the second inning. I got to figure something out, even if I can’t get a grip on the ball. That’s very frustrating.”
LIVE/SITUATIONAL BETTING
For fans of the long ball, this is a great matchup. The teams rank first and second in baseball in home runs with the Astros slamming 104 and the Yankees hitting 94.
All in all, the Yankees have done a better job scoring runs despite fewer homers with 17 additional runs scored this season. In the month of June, the Yankees have scored just eight more runs than Houston, but have done so in two fewer games.
For the Yankees, Stephen Drew provides some pop (11 home runs), but even with his average ticking up is hitting just .190. Of course, the Astros have a similar player in Luis Valbuena who has 17 long balls, but an average of just .186.
Those two players help illustrate the extremes of these teams’ offenses. Of course, each squad does have a couple key players that help add depth and length to the order.
For the Yankees, they rely on Brett Gardner (.361 OBP) at the top and have Mark Teixeira (.920 OPS), Alex Rodriguez (.908 OPS) and Brian McCann (.828 OPS) in the middle combining for 43 homers.
The Astros have George Springer (.855 OPS), Carlos Correa (.831 OPS) and Jose Altuve (.719 OPS) atop the order adding more dimensions than just power, but follow it up with big boppers like Evan Gattis, Chris Carter and Valbuena who have combined for 42 homers.
PROP TALK
With a lefty on the hill, look for Chris Young to get a start in the outfield. He’s put together a pretty good season with a .748 OPS in 160 plate appearances, but has done most of his damage against southpaws.
Against lefties, he is hitting .351 with a 1.106 OPS. While most of his production came in April, he has bounced back here a bit in June after a dismal May. This month, he is hitting a solid .297.
Against Keuchel specifically, the 31-year old outfielder is 4 for 13 with a pair of doubles and a triple for a .308 average and .973 OPS.
ANALYSIS AND PREDICTION
With two relatively young pitchers and two similar offenses, this should be a close matchup. Of course, Keuchel has the better numbers overall, but Warren has pitched better of the two over his last few starts.
I look for a tight game with the bullpen and defense being the difference. In the pen, these two teams are relatively even, too, at least in the back end. Houston has the better bullpen ERA, but Dellin Betances (0.26 ERA) and Chase Shreve (1.88 ERA) are hard to matchup with, even with Andrew Miller (1.03 ERA) on the DL. On defense, though, the Astros have the edge with 10 fewer errors committed and a bit more athletic.
Houston 5, New York 4
The MLB lines for this contest will first be released by BookMaker Sportsbook. BookMaker is going to have multiple betting options available for this nationally-televised baseball matchup. Live wagering during commercials offers an adjusted moneyline, individual inning run totals and next hitter results. Log in and start gambling during the game now!
Access live betting lines from your mobile device at BookMaker Sportsbook! You can wager on sporting events as they unfold on television with BookMaker’s live betting platform. Real-time spreads, totals, props and moneyline odds are all available by clicking here so start betting with BookMaker today! The ballgame pitting the New York Yankees versus the Houston Astros will commence Thursday, June 25, 2015, at 8:10 p.m. ET at Minute Maid Park. You can watch the contest live on the MLB Network.
